El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3

[Tim B]

As I suspected, that area in the south-west has pepped up having made landfall and is now generating lightning.

Lets see where else this happens overnight.

[slotter68]

Started picking up some sferics on good old long wave

[TEITS]

Must admit despite not expecting anything till later this evening even im disappointed with the radar/sat. However I then think back to a night that produced the greatest storms in Peterborugh in the last 10yrs. These were home grown storms that developed at 2 in the morning!

Point is you just never know what will develop. The only thing that is niggling me is the GFS has never shown any precip for many days now.

[Neilsouth]

Large patch of ac cas just developed to my east

[Backtrack]

With respect my dear fellow, absolute poppycock! :lol:

Rapid convection over wales the past 30-40 minutes

I meant for my area.

17.8C with a dewpoint of 13.3C and humidity at 75%. Isn't the best recipe for storms!

[magicpatch]

Still 28.3c here, lots of cloud, not much else, similar conditions to what is over at wimbledon

[Alex95]

Isn't that stuff over Wales the cold front now? The one that everyone said wouldn't bring thunder? Maybe those that didn't get anything today will get something from that.

[Casper]

Things seem to be picking up in the far SW Cornwall into Devon.

[Snow Cat]

Hi folks, thought I'd join in. Usually here for the snow but love a good storm. I've got a good outlook and the channel is getting darker.

[Arnie Pie]

Blue skies and visible convection now in Birmingham with a lot more looking like its heading up the M5

Its only just beginning.......

[PubliusEnigma]

Could this be the biggest forecast gaff up by all the well known forecasters since just about every summer so far

Thats not completley fair. The problem is if you intend to put out forecasts based on output alone, it pays to actually look out of the window so to speak as well. As the models can call it 90%, however a sheild of high cloud, can kill of any chances of development. It became quite obvious early on today when the cloud sheild was advancing over the South West,

that little if any activity would be the outcome, even though the beeb are still putting out warnings for storms over southern england.

Shows where there is any likely hood of activity from now till say 23.00 Hrs.

[Buckster76]

Large patch of ac cas just developed to my east

same here in Essex

[camiscool]

THIS IS THE BEGINNING !!!!

[Buckster76]

not sure you can blame the cloud shield on limiting convection in the S/S-East today

yes - when you get it first thing in morning with an overnight MCS from France

but it hasn't exactly reduced temps today has it ?we still managed 32C odd down here

[Neilsouth]

oooh Jellyfish :blink:

[loopydreamer]

radio 5 live have just announced that thunderstorm on its way towards wimbledon!!!!

[Alex95]

I'm thrilled that I've had my 3rd storm of the year, but I have to admit it would be nice to get something from the cold front tonight. Also, I wish the hail had lasted longer, I love it when it looks like its been snowing on a warm day!

[Neilsouth]

Interesting developments towards Lewes!

[The PIT]

THIS IS THE BEGINNING !!!!

OFF THE END.....

Will the cold front survive the journey cross the mountains in Wales and then get more beefy.

[Lt. Dan]

Could this be the biggest forecast gaff up by all the well known forecasters since just about every summer so far

Seriously? I don't see it as any 'gaff up'. Nobody guaranteed a storm anywhere...All the forecasts/warnings were for a 'risk' of severe weather. Nobody can know precisely what the atmosphere will do or when it will do it. But, I think if the potential is there then it should be discussed. There was quite a model disagreement on the outcome but all the signs were there for something 'potentially' big to happen - hence why we had a weather risk mentioned for today.

[Tim B]

I meant for my area.

17.8C with a dewpoint of 13.3C and humidity at 75%. Isn't the best recipe for storms!

Actually this may be an indication that activity is developing or will do soon as cooler air from somewhere has cut under the warmer air in the region, and there is only one direction that warm moist air can go.

Upwards.

[Chris D]

radio 5 live have just announced that thunderstorm on its way towards wimbledon!!!!

Well unless there are thunderstorms without any rain, nothing is on radar yet.:lol:

Edited June 27, 2011 by chris93

[loopydreamer]

.....okay i think things are going to start kicking off now!!!!

[peterf]

give it time folks,if you get half of what we got earlier it's a result.

[Neilsouth]

Seriously? I don't see it as any 'gaff up'. Nobody guaranteed a storm anywhere...All the forecasts/warnings were for a 'risk' of severe weather. Nobody can know precisely what the atmosphere will do or when it will do it. But, I think if the potential is there then it should be discussed. There was quite a model disagreement on the outcome but all the signs were there for something 'potentially' big to happen - hence why we had a weather risk mentioned for today.

a Risk of SEVERE

I never said severe did i?, seriously?. Come on people don't start defending forecasters it happens every year

Anyway lets see how this pans out over night eh?