Model Output Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mmm, early autumn on ECMWF model, still FI though and being overdone i would have thought

[Gibby]

UKMO continues to show a quiet working week with a weak flabby high pressure ridge dominating the weather up to and including Friday. A lot of dry weather through the week with just isolated showers each day with many places staying dry and reasonably warm. Late on Friday and into the weekend deep low pressure moves in off the Atlantic bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers later in the weekend.

GFS shows a quiet week too with the proviso that the French Low pressure shown Tuesday/Wednesday stays the European side of the channel. If not some thundery rain could occur in the southeast for a time before dry, warm quiet weather returns. From the weekend on Low pressure from the Atlantic regains control though progged nowhere near as deep as UKMO wwhich marks the beginning of a north south split in the weather for much of the rest of the run with rain most likely in the north with long drier periods further south. Late in FI pressure builds strongly over the UK with fine warm summer weather likely with the incursion of Low pressure near the SE at the very end bringing a risk of thundery rain.

ECM also keeps the weekdays quiet with sunny spells and isolated daytime showers before it too like UKMO has deep Low pressure arriving into the NW late Friday/Saturday with a band of rain and strong winds being chased away east by sunshine and blustery showers by late on Saturday. A windy and showery NW flow covers all areas Sunday with further cold disturbances running south from Iceland on its western flank Monday becoming absorbed in the circulation of the parent Low over Scandinavia by Tuesday. Throughout this time there would be cool and wet weather for many either from bands of rain or heavy showers with hail and thunder locally with improvements very slow by day 10 as a weak ridge attempts to move in from the west.

GFS tonight is a little on its own as we look towards next weekend. It's take on next weekends Low pressure is to keep it further North and less deep with the resultant unsettled weather more restricted in its coverage. ECM and UKMO look hand in hand tonight with both showing a potent Low for July standards delivering heavy rain and showers to all areas next weekend to no doubt hamper outdoor events then. ECM goes on to maintain very unsettled and cool conditions out to day 10 and beyond.

[January Snowstorm]

ECM for next weekend is the stuff of nightmares.

Still let's enjoy the week that's in it which looks very nice at times.

Let's hope the golf doesn't suffer again

[Geordiesnow]

It seems after yesterdays slight hints of perhaps the jet heading northwards and allowing the Azores to ridge in, it gets flattern by a low pressure system but again, the ECM model will show a sunshine and sunshine regime so at least it won't be dull and wet.

Far too early to know what will happen but if the forecasts are anything to go by, it might not actually be a dull week despite Easterly winds unless of course you are under the rain in the South so at last, some good news for those living in the NW even if there won't be no heatwave!

[ribster]

i find all this wailing and suicidal postings bizarre to be honest, they are ruining the model thread.

some people really need to get a grip and realise they live in the UK not the mediterranean. It rains every month, and if you get 2 dry weeks together at any time of the year in the UK, then you consider yourself lucky. This is NORMAL.

Similarly with temps. 18-24 degrees with a little sun and an odd showwer is an entirely normal pattern and average across the UK in summer... it doesn't mean summer is written off.

expecting month long 25-30 degree spells throughout the UK are in the realm of fantasies. posts from northern ireland and western scotland moaning about rain? well. hate to let you down , but it is sort of prone to this kind of weather there. get used to it or move, and stop moaning.

Indeed, just a had decent week of weather, some sun, showers, good warmth, sometimes cool, although a slightly longer spell of rain this evening. Looks to be another decent, largely settled and dry week, with temps low to mid 20s, possibly more unsettled by the weekend. Also looking forward to daylight hours diminishing now beginning to gather pace.

[Milhouse]

I'm clinging to the hope that there is still a good degree of uncertainty regarding the eventual arrival of low pressure. It was expected to arrive much earlier on in the week but has now been but back to Saturday so the reasonably settled spell has been prolonged quite a bit. Hopefully it continues to do so. However the positioning of the mid Atlantic high is just in the wrong position and would put lows right on a collision course with the UK.

[snowlover2009]

It is nice people are trying to hold hope that gfs will be near the mark, but even as a big summer love, I have backed down and can see it is looking very likely that it is going to be rather unsettled and cool around weekend onwards, not looking good at all. It is 4 or so models against the gfs, which has been all over IMO. Even if the gfs did come mid range, it would still be pretty naff weather. Those who love cool wet weather, you look to be in for a treat, I would prefer it, if it was September onwards, but if this is what we have for the rest of summer, then I will be looking for autumn haha

Edited July 10, 2011 by snowlover2009

[shedhead]

All I can say about the 12GFS is the same as I said earlier....

Posted Today, 09:20

The general dissapointment in here is probably reflective of the fact to much store was put in yesterdays improved outlook from GFS, but to be fair the Ops was a warm, settled outlier and with

hemispheric 500mb charts showing no real change to the pattern it was always likely to turn it less settled on subsequent runs - which it duely has.

As some wise sages on here have said, until we see genuine and sustained progging of a wavelength change we are pretty much stuck with what we've got, therefore any sudden improvements

in the GFS and ECM outputs should be viewed with a large degree of sceptacism, especially post T+144hrs.

That said at least the coming 4-5 days should see some decent weather for all of us, but even now we can't call it settled.

Edited July 10, 2011 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

If ECM does verify as it is now for next weekend, it will be feeling cold, with heavy and thundery rain, the BBC have also hinted about this on country file tonight saying it looks like turning wet and windy by Saturday.

Edited July 10, 2011 by Gavin D

[J10]

UKMO continues to show a quiet working week with a weak flabby high pressure ridge dominating the weather up to and including Friday. A lot of dry weather through the week with just isolated showers each day with many places staying dry and reasonably warm. Late on Friday and into the weekend deep low pressure moves in off the Atlantic bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers later in the weekend.

GFS shows a quiet week too with the proviso that the French Low pressure shown Tuesday/Wednesday stays the European side of the channel. If not some thundery rain could occur in the southeast for a time before dry, warm quiet weather returns. From the weekend on Low pressure from the Atlantic regains control though progged nowhere near as deep as UKMO wwhich marks the beginning of a north south split in the weather for much of the rest of the run with rain most likely in the north with long drier periods further south. Late in FI pressure builds strongly over the UK with fine warm summer weather likely with the incursion of Low pressure near the SE at the very end bringing a risk of thundery rain.

ECM also keeps the weekdays quiet with sunny spells and isolated daytime showers before it too like UKMO has deep Low pressure arriving into the NW late Friday/Saturday with a band of rain and strong winds being chased away east by sunshine and blustery showers by late on Saturday. A windy and showery NW flow covers all areas Sunday with further cold disturbances running south from Iceland on its western flank Monday becoming absorbed in the circulation of the parent Low over Scandinavia by Tuesday. Throughout this time there would be cool and wet weather for many either from bands of rain or heavy showers with hail and thunder locally with improvements very slow by day 10 as a weak ridge attempts to move in from the west.

GFS tonight is a little on its own as we look towards next weekend. It's take on next weekends Low pressure is to keep it further North and less deep with the resultant unsettled weather more restricted in its coverage. ECM and UKMO look hand in hand tonight with both showing a potent Low for July standards delivering heavy rain and showers to all areas next weekend to no doubt hamper outdoor events then. ECM goes on to maintain very unsettled and cool conditions out to day 10 and beyond.

Good to see objectivity and decent analysis, keep these reviews coming.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have a feeling that GFS has rather "gone off on one" with that low moving up the North Sea midweek (which, from what I can see, would probably give eastern areas a lot of cool cloudy weather while maintaining sunshine in the west). The UKMO/ECM give a much shallower feature which would probably allow conditions to remain mostly sunny and dry with close to average temperatures away from the east coast where it would be rather cooler, and parts of the west where it would be rather warm. Before that, tomorrow looks like being pretty warm over most of England with temperatures of 21-23C in most places.

The high pressure is getting squeezed a little at the end of the week, which may promote more in the way of showers on Thursday/Friday, while at the same time eastern coastal areas will warm up then due to the change in wind direction. There does, as Gibby's summary mentions, seem to be strong model consensus on an unusually deep depression for July heading in for the weekend which is worth keeping an eye on. At this range it's still possible that the models could be overblowing that low.

[feb1991blizzard]

The GFS still brings in a potent Northerly due to a 990mb low tracking eastwards thus opening the floodgates for some heavy and frequent rain anyway, i have always been confident of some Nationwide heat at some point during this summer but you have to say that it bears a striking resemblence to recent summers and if we are sitting here in 2 weeks time with similar output then that really looks like the end, she is not gargling just yet but she is certainly clearing her throat. Its just a shame for all the people who have UK holidays booked.

[Milhouse]

If that low were to occur it would be remarkably similar to mid July 2001 which also saw a deep low descending down from the north west and hanging around for several days. The rest of that summer wasnt too bad.

[William of Walworth]

It's far from impossible that so strong a low as that, ie the one being discussed just abvove, could very we'll be something of an outlier by next Saturday/next w/e.

Wait and hope that such megalow ideas downgrade, say I!

Edited July 10, 2011 by William of Walworth

[ZONE 51]

?? season ??

:o

[Cheese Rice]

i must be living in a different country. we've had some off days but some lovely periods most days too. the sun's belting this evening here.

This summer has been nothing like 2007, not here at least, that summer we barely scraped 20 degrees for weeks on end, and there was little in the way of sun. A sense of perspective is required.

Anyway back to the models. looks like a reasonably settled and warm in any sun, week ahead. next weekend is ages away. just get out and enjoy the pleasantness - not a heatwave, just an average british summer.

Same here, we've had some really nice weather this month.

I do believe many are so fixated with looking for temperatures over 25.c and oodles of high pressures that they don't realize alot of areas (Yorkshire/Lincolnshire/Norfolk/South East in particular) have seen very warm temperatures. Here for example only two days have temperatures not been in the 20-25.c range. The majority of the days have been sunny with some cloud.

Its this type of pattern that you have to take each day as it comes, otherwise if all you do is look out for is the next 1 week hot spell you are undoubtedly going to be disappointed. And will probbaly miss out on the most of summer.

Although I do feel sorry for NW England/Scotland/N/Ireland they've seen an awful summer...for the rest of us, quit complaining!

Edited July 10, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[William of Walworth]

CR : I thoroughly agree -- West Wales has seen some very sunny and at times warm weather. Even last week, very far from summery and very LP dominated synoptically, managed to include some lovely conditions at times.

As for Electric SnowStorm's snapshot for next Saturday -- a Low of that intensity simply won't verify. And I'm prepared to lay money on that.

[Eugene]

Even last week, very far from summery and very LP dominated synoptically, managed to include some lovely conditions at times.

Yes william you have it spot on there, charts may not look great but when it comes to the actual weather outside it turns out nice and feeling very warm with just one poor day here and there, the week ahead looks very nice until saturday now just on friday it was looking unsettled thursday, GFS 00Z even though one of the warmest runs on the ensembles doesnt look too bad at all.

[mushymanrob]

as i suspected, after today there appears to be a problem with cloud, especially on the eastern side of the country. so im expecting rather benign conditions prior a very autumnal feel next weekend. strong winds, heavy rain, dull.... there might be a slow improvement into next week but the outlook after that suggests further troughs on a jet directed either at us or just south. fi has the usual tease which tbh can be ignored.

[MP-R]

Can't quite and couldn't quite see where that ridiculously deep low was going to come from. Now the GFS doesn't show anything of the sort turning up with, yes, low pressure to the north at the weekend but a general westerly flow where it will driest in the south. Plenty of attempts at high pressure settling beyond next week too.

[Gibby]

UKMO continues to show a fairly quiet working week with the odd shower or two in different areas day to day. The SE may see some thundery showers for a while late tomorrow and Wednesday before a ridge takes over Thursday/Friday. By Saturday Low pressure is set to deepen near Northern Scotland bringing rain and strong winds to all later in the weekend.

ECM is the same as UKMO in that a quiet week close to a high pressure ridge looks likely before a deep Low pressure over the weekend becomes complex and slow moving early next week. The weather would turn wet over the weekend with heavy rain and strong winds followed by the mix of sunshine and showers to which we've all become accustomed to so much this summer.

GFS is still out on its own on developments of Low pressure next weekend. It keeps the centre further north with high pressure holding to the south resulting in several days of strong west winds and damp, drizzly humid conditions for the south. Further North heavier rain would occur as slow moving fronts wave north then south from time to time. Later on in the run pressure builds from the SW pushing the frontal activity further away North to just affect the far North a little longer with a fine, settled and warm end for the whole UK on its run.

In Summary the odds are in favour of a deep Low pressure area affecting the UK over the weekend and into next week but GFS is bullish about keeping it a much shallower affair and further North hence drier conditions for the south but windy. As model runs pass we will see which output backs down but my hunch is that GFS will come in line to the Euros as there looks more scope for rapid deepening of the Low on Saturday than GFS is currently showing.

[Weather Boy]

Looking at the 00z this morning, I can't really get my head round the ECM. It has the low for next weekend rushing towards us at an extraordinary pace, and then stalling over Scotland and/or the North Sea. I can't recall ever seeing an evolution like that before where a very fast moving system suddenly just stops in its tracks and I think it somewhat likely that this will be changed. Whether it will change to match the GFS or changed so to be more progressive, who can say? I'd also comment that by that point (Monday) we are borderline FI so it would be surprising to see no changes in either model. As it is, we know one of them are going to change at some point because they contradict each other.

I can't quite see how the UKMO is allegedly supporting the ECM? To my reading it doesn't quite go far enough with the end of the run leaving the viewer unclear as to whether it is going to go for the ECM or the GFS, or somewhere in between.

Finally, that is an unusually deep low for the time of year (on the ECM) and I'd therefore be inclined to think that the less extreme version is generally more likely seeing as, by definition, the extreme versions are rarer.

For these reasons, not sure why some are of the view that the GFS will fall into line with the ECM - and perhaps those more knowledgeable than me could justify this view?

[shedhead]

The overall N Hemispheric pattern has not really changed, nor are there any significant changes progged, so I'd think it far more likely that GFS will fall into line with ECM and UKMO, rather than visa-versa. We have already

seen this happen a few times across the last week or so, therefore viewing GFS as something of a straw to clutch (again) is probably unwise imo.

[Gibby]

The overall N Hemispheric pattern has not really changed, nor are there any significant changes progged, so I'd think it far more likely that GFS will fall into line with ECM and UKMO, rather than visa-versa. We have already

seen this happen a few times across the last week or so, therefore viewing GFS as something of a straw to clutch (again) is probably unwise imo.

And no sooner than the next run GFS has fallen more in line on the 6z so I think we can safely say that a very unsettled second half to the weekend is progged.

[shedhead]

Indeed Gibby. Could make the golf interesting at Sandwich across the weekend IF the current runs verify, but with the 06GFS now falling into line and completing the set you really wouldn't want to bet against it happening (or on

any Americans!) If anything GFS looks even grimmer now post T+144hrs, with very unsettled evolution being progged to develop, indeed the 2nd half of July has the potential to be significantly worse than the 1st half based

on this run.

Edited July 11, 2011 by shedhead