Model Output Discussion

[Backtrack]

Rock solid, it was a huge outlier throughout.

Got to add, the models are a bit further away from what they were showing yesterday, not as good.

Wasn't an outlier, because it has been consistent now over three runs. If it was an outlier then that one run would of been showing different synoptics from the 2 in front of it, which it hasn't. I see no reason why the GFS can't be correct, but I think the UKMO and ECM have a better chance of coming off, due to the fact that we have two main models in agreement.

One model has got it right before on it's own, and it will do again at some point. Whether it's the GFS, only time will tell.

But yes a great run, with high pressure building strong enough to push that North Sea low into the continent. I personally hope the GFS is correct. Ensembles should give us a better picture shortly.

[Costa Del Fal]

06z is very similar to the 00z in general. Was the 00z Operational on to something? I dont think the 00z was an outlier necessarily but certainly at times at the top end of the members. Still, its good all 3 models agree on some sort of summer weather for a change!

[Slowpoke]

This time next week looks very warm and sunny for England wales - hot in places. Hope the GFS is right!

[UV-RAY]

This time next week looks very warm and sunny for England wales - hot in places. Hope the GFS is right!

I would heed caution, although the GFS is showing a warm/sunny spell you cannot ignore the Euro's I would expect the GFS to follow the Euro's by the end of today. Off course it may be the other way, and we get 3-5 days of hot sunny weather.

[mushymanrob]

DONT be seduced by the gfs's fi tease, because atm its the only model bringing the high pressure over us. the ecm insists that it remains firmly anchored to our west. the gfs may yet be proven correct, i sincerely hope so! , but im not getting any hopes up just yet... before then, we have several days of gradually improving weather, drying up, brightening up, and warming up, back to normal values by early next week at the latest.

[Cheese Rice]

It seems yet again the GFS is against the big two.

If we use T144 as the base point we see the ECM and UKMO at general agreement- Azores high ridging to western parts of the UK with a fairly weak low to our east

ECM -

UKMO -

ECM has a deeper low resulting in a showery flow which could provide pleasant sunny conditions providing your not under any precipitation. While I suspect the UKMO projection would produce more cloud due to the low been fairly weak with north sea cloud plaguing southern and eastern areas, drizzle and light rain also becoming an issue.

The GFS goes for the best possible scenario, with the Azores high ridging far enough east to influence the weather across the whole of the UK. With a none existent low and 850's reaching low teens we could see a spell of very warm weather, on the upside the ridge doesn't look particularly strong so showers across central and eastern areas are likely.

GFS -

Interestingly the GFS (air pressure) ensembles are fairly consistent which would suggest the GFS is picking up a different signal to the UKMO/ECM.

GFS Ensembles -

Going by the three models I would say the GFS has picked up on the wrong signal, for the model to not even entertain the idea puts the whole run in the bin for me. The GFS could be correct but I strongly doubt the UKMO/ECM would both consistently project a low wrongly.

Outlook for next week- Largely fine and dry for western areas, cloud amounts variable with some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 18-21.c. Central and eastern parts look to be affected by the low to our east bringing in either a showery flow or dull damp conditions, temperatures in high teens. Far north of England and Scotland looking dry with again variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 17-20.c.

[TonyH]

Those temps you say for the west are way under what we shall get in a higher pressure set up next week! We have managed those in the past few days. 23 to 25c at least more like it.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well its looks to me like the lads at the metoffice fancy the gfs output rather more!!

A predominantely dry and warm settled last week of July according to the pro's.

Fingers crossed for some dazzling output this evening..................................

[Buzzit]

It seems yet again the GFS is against the big two.

Going by the three models I would say the GFS has picked up on the wrong signal, for the model to not even entertain the idea puts the whole run in the bin for me. The GFS could be correct but I strongly doubt the UKMO/ECM would both consistently project a low wrongly.

Outlook for next week- Largely fine and dry for western areas, cloud amounts variable with some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 18-21.c. Central and eastern parts look to be affected by the low to our east bringing in either a showery flow or dull damp conditions, temperatures in high teens. Far north of England and Scotland looking dry with again variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 17-20.c.

Cheese : The ECM Ensembles from the 0z are quite different from the op run with less impact from the low pressure to the East.

Personally I do not think the UKMO and ECM are miles away from the GFS and can easily move closer towards the GFS output.

*** Seems to be the MetO thinking now...

Also : I think that predicting summer temperatures on this thread should be avoided

Edited July 21, 2011 by Buzzit

[The Northern Ramper]

Rock solid, it was a huge outlier throughout.

Got to add, the models are a bit further away from what they were showing yesterday, not as good.

It has called this weekend settling down since 240 hrs out, the occasional wobble on one of its runs but generally every day it has counted this scenario down to now t48. The following wednesday it is currently forecasting it has counted down from 216 to now 120. It may change but it is rock solid on that it is bring it six hours nearer with every run and not the usually pushing back by 24 hours that happens on a FI tease.

[bluearmy]

What follows the blocking to the west ?? naefs is keen to reduce the high anomoly to the west and keep the one over scandi in deep fi. this is probably where gfs fi is headed. no sign on the extended ecm epsgrams that a continental flow is likely with associated high temps.

the ecm 30 dayer runs today and we will see the results on tomorrows 30 day update. looking at what is shown at day 14 on the last few ens runs, not sure it will be too different re temps though it may be slightly more optimistic re settled/unsettled.

[Frosty.]

Not a bad outlook for next week with atlantic high pressure either covering the uk or at least extending a strong ridge across the uk with the jet further north, the Ecm 00z looks fairly settled in FI but no heatwave although dry and warm would probably sum things up for much of next week and into the following week..the Gfs 06z is better with some very summery charts for the second half of FI with a continental flow for the BI but this has been a poor summer so far for most of the uk and a fine early august would only partly repair the damage, the north is having a desperately poor summer but maybe next week will bring some welcome relief. The current very unstable atmosphere does look like calming down but there is a bit of a question mark over the weekend for the east of the uk with maybe some strong Northerly winds and a risk of rain but most of the uk should have a drier and brighter weekend with showers becoming lighter and more isolated.

[Summer Sun]

As Polar_Low has said there is a question mark this weekend in the east,

Saturday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn541.png

Sunday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn781.png

Into next week pressure slowly build's over the western half of the uk

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1021.png

The East still looks prone to rain early on as the low is still shown to be close by in the North Sea

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

From Wednesday pressure slowly moves East

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

I think next week we will all have a much improved week, west will be best at first as the pressure very slowly moves east wards, by midweek everywhere should be seeing less showers and more sunshine, there's no heat wave on the cards just some nice pleasant summers weather in the west first then everywhere by midweek

Edited July 21, 2011 by Gavin D

[Eugene]

Having had a quick look at GFS 12Z it doesnt look as good as previous GFS OP runs, still looking settled by mid next week but taking longer to get there and then no FI heat to get excited over.

[Summer Sun]

Indeed Eugene By the end of next week pressure is shown to drop slowly from the north. Fits in with what the met office are saying.

[Costa Del Fal]

Probably a more realistic GFS this afternoon but still very pleasant with good enough temperatures. FI a change with lower pressure but nothing to worry about right now.

Still a good run.

[shedhead]

Having had a quick look at GFS 12Z it doesnt look as good as previous GFS OP runs, still looking settled by mid next week but taking longer to get there and then no FI heat to get excited over.

Very true. We'll probably be looking at a typical summer senario here, whereby the fine spell takes longer and longer to arrive and once here disappears quicker than currently progged, there's certainly signs

of exaclty this kind of thing evolving on the GFS 12 run. That said all areas should at least see a spell of decent weather next week, with the southwest probably enjoying the greatest longevity, due to it's proximity

to the main high pressure cell.

Also of note, on the 06 GFS much of England and Wales spent 2 or 3 days within the 564 dam line next week, on the 12 run only the far southwest is within it and then only for about 25 mins on Monday afternoon!

Edited July 21, 2011 by shedhead

[mushymanrob]

the 12z looks far more plausable, and fits in to what the ecm is reckoning on. the azh might ridge towards us, indeed sits over us, but the centre of the high never gets here and cruicially pressure never rises much to our east. the spoiler is the mid atlantic trough progged for next week, previous gfs runs downgraded it but the 12z slowly brings it across to our north. then it returns to the northsea, replacing this one we are 'enjoying' now...

as i see it, with the models standing as they do, only the south east can expect something very nice, the rest of us will be plagued with cloud from time to time, pleasant enough, average - just above average, but no heatwave and no thundery breakdown.

[EaasmanG]

Well what about that 12z.... what a bloody screw up for my neck of the woods.... highs of 18-20 degrees now downgraded to 14-16 degrees, well below average, yet again, in the systematic predictable manner as always with this summer.

Sorry for the rant oh ye sensitive hearts out there, I was really hoping for something warm to actually make this July count as a summer month - not expecting a heatwave, or even wall-to-wall sunshine, just some days by which to call it "summer", and now that's been snatched a way as usual. AAAARGGGHHHH.

[mushymanrob]

... mind you, if these charts firm up the operational runs might be changing significantly for the better.... IF im reading these right.. :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not liking this run at all- it's shifted in the direction of UKMO/ECM and warm dry sunny weather struggles to establish even when the high pressure is almost on top of us. The progs suggest mostly dry cloudy and fairly cool weather on Monday and Tuesday with a slack northerly flow and weak fronts embedded in the flow, perhaps bringing a little rain or drizzle. Wednesday turns dry and sunny in the west but we keep more cloud and a little drizzle in eastern England associated with the NNE flow. Thursday and Friday look synoptically good for warm dry sunny weather but we then get a weak front moving SE through the high pressure and introducing more cloud and cooler conditions from the north on Friday, so we end up with just the one hot day in the south.

On the other hand, UKMO has shifted in the direction of this morning's GFS runs and brings the ridge of high pressure right across the country by Wednesday. I am still cautious about the upcoming outlook- it will certainly be drier but warmth and/or sunshine are still not guaranteed, particularly the further north and east you are.

I agree with Mushymanrob that those longer-range charts with large heights all around us look a lot more favourable than this evening's operationals so far, and I think we may still have a few twists and turns in store over the coming couple of days. The NOAA's 8-14 day outlook still has high pressure centred over and to the west of Britain:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

[Frosty.]

Indeed Eugene By the end of next week pressure is shown to drop slowly from the north. Fits in with what the met office are saying.

Yes it looks like the 6z was a bit of a warm outlier and the ecm 00z & gfs 12z are more realistic with atlantic high pressure slowly edging eastwards through next week so a drier week with more in the way of sunshine but the east will probably be cooler and windier at first with a chance of rain for eastern coastal britain but then improving, then high pressure declining by late next week as low pressure moves east close to iceland with the weather then going downhill from the north as the good weather collapses but at least a few days of fine and warm weather should be expected for all of the uk at some point next week and a much more benign week with no repeat of the heavy thundery downpours.

[peterf]

sit back and take a 24hr average of outputs,much less stressful.

[Summer Sun]

ECM pretty much follows GFS

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[bluearmy]

... mind you, if these charts firm up the operational runs might be changing significantly for the better.... IF im reading these right.. :lol:

Rob - this output IS the mean representation of the op runs for days 8 thru 10. Therefore, the op runs won't necessarily get any better !