August CET

[feb1991blizzard]

Now thats more like it, even just to record a daily CET of 20c+ is notable considering the summer so far.

Yes because we certainly wont be recording many more this summer. The first few days forecast made me revise my prediction upwards because if the first few days would have looked average i would have said summer blizzard's prediction of 15.4 would be likely and Snowlover2009's 15 not completely out the question.

[Roger J Smith]

ENTRIES including 1-2 Aug (* for each late day)

_____________________________________________________

20.5 .. Robbie Garrett*

20.0 .. Craig Evans

19.9

19.8

19.7

19.6

19.5

19.4

19.3

19.2 .. warmest 1995

19.1

19.0

18.9 .. 2nd warmest 1997

18.8

18.7 .. 3rd warmest 1975

18.6

18.5 .. Optimus Prime

18.4

18.3

18.2

18.1

18.0

17.9 ..

17.8

17.7 .. Harry

17.6 .. AtlanticFlamethrower

17.5 .. lukemc, LomondSnowstorm

17.4

17.3 .. Roger J Smith

17.2

17.1 .. Polar Gael, mike Meehan

17.0 .. blizzards, Stargazer

16.9 .. Koppite, sunlover

16.8 .. Backtrack, Stationary Front

16.7 .. Snowstorm1, Carl43Wrexham

16.6 .. Norrance, Harve, Alex, DeepSnow, reef* ledders69*

16.5 .. Rollo, stewfox, The Watcher, damianslaw, sundog, Don, Duncan McAlister, coram*

16.4 .. virtualsphere, DAVID SNOW, davehsug ... average 1981-2010

16.3 .. Gavin D, Sparticle, DR Hosking

16.2 .. Milhouse, Pete Tattum, Mark Bayley, shuggee, IAmJohnnyDisco, Mullender83

... average 1971-2000

16.1 .. Kentish Man, feb1991blizzard, Stormmad26

16.0 .. Ben_Cambs, Mr_Data, The PIT, Aderyn Coch

15.9 .. SteveB, BornfromtheVoid, Kiwash**

15.8 .. BARRY, bluebreezer54, Jack Wales ... average 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

15.7

15.6 .. Paul T** average of all CET values 1659-2010

15.5 ..

15.4 .. Fozfoster, summer blizzard, Terminal Moraine

15.3 .. Gavin P

15.2 .. JACKONE

15.1 .. conor123, tonyh

15.0 .. EaasmanG, snowlover2009, Wales123098

14.9

14.8

14.7

14.6

14.5

14.4

14.3

14.2

14.1

14.0

13.9

13.8

13.7 .. recent coldest 1986

13.6

13.5

13.4

13.3

13.2

13.1

13.0 .. tied 2nd coldest 1694-95

12.9 .. coldest on record 1912

check your entry ... so far we have 68 entries and the median is 16.4 ... this table will be edited for any further entries.

Edited August 3, 2011 by Roger J Smith

[Paul T]

Oops, i dont think i actually guessed yet!

15.6 please.

[Backtrack]

Very confident that a sub 16C CET finish is pretty much out of the question.

[davehsug]

I can't help but notice that GP (Glacier Point) hasn't entered this month & I haven't seen a post from him in ages. I hope he's okay? Can any mods confirm?

[Robbie Garrett]

My CET would be a August Record, not going to happen then seeing as the previous best was 19.2 lool!

[Summer Sun]

CET is 19.9 to the 2nd

[feb1991blizzard]

I can't help but notice that GP (Glacier Point) hasn't entered this month & I haven't seen a post from him in ages. I hope he's okay? Can any mods confirm?

Nor TWS either, the last few days must be the first time that he hasnt posted on the model thread.

[damianslaw]

CET is 19.9 to the 2nd

CET set to tumble from tomorrow, we are likely to be much closer to the average in a weeks time, but above rather than below.

[feb1991blizzard]

Very confident that a sub 16C CET finish is pretty much out of the question.

Very brave statement. Yes i think with the met now indicating that the southern half will have another warmish spell mid month that it isnt the favourite and im glad i upped my prediction at the last minute and probably even now my 16.1 is too low but i wouldnt say its out of the question with strong greenland blocking potential there, that said it is nearly 20c from the 1st 3 days and any colder spells are likely to only be just below average in the CET zone however long they are and it does seem that nowadays in summer you are more likely to get large positive temperature anomolies than negative ones, particularly the south and in more so in big cities. I mean london maxs of 30 are quite common but london maxs of 15 are unheard of, probably because of the urban warming effect so your statement has some merits but i wouldnt say its nailed on.

[Optimus Prime]

I mean london maxs of 30 are quite common but london maxs of 15 are unheard of, probably because of the urban warming effect so your statement has some merits but i wouldnt say its nailed on.

That also effects the average temperature expected there. It's on average warmer than all of the surrounding areas. Just as possible for London to be below average than more isolted parts such as the new forest where the average temperature (and expected temperature) are considerably lower.

[Summer Sun]

CET is 19.7 to the 3rd<br sab="919">

[feb1991blizzard]

That also effects the average temperature expected there. It's on average warmer than all of the surrounding areas. Just as possible for London to be below average than more isolted parts such as the new forest where the average temperature (and expected temperature) are considerably lower.

Just as possible for London to be below average i agree but the average daytime max for August is around 23c, the record max is 37c which is a 14c positive anomaly, i havent got the record lowest daytime August max to hand but i would hazard a guess that it isnt as low as 9c. I know that is just an extreme but this summer has seen max temps of 30c for london on a few occasions but i doubt there has been many if any 15c maxes. I only think this is true in late June, July and August though. In short, you are probably right about surrounding area though so maybe it isnt due to urban warming effect and maybe just a southern trend because the average max here is about 20c and i could quite easily see a max of around 13 or 14c with a Northerly.

[Summer Sun]

CET is 19.2 to the 4th, which is a 0.5 degree loss on the 3rd.

[Kiewii]

I'm upgrading my previous temp of 15.9C.

16.3C

[Summer Sun]

CET is 18.9 to the 5th.

Edited August 6, 2011 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

If anyone can do a prediction up to mid month based on the latest GFS that would be appreciated.

[BornFromTheVoid]

If anyone can do a prediction up to mid month based on the latest GFS that would be appreciated.

Should be at

18.4C to the 6th (15.9C)

17.9C to the 7th (14.8C)

17.4C to the 8th (14.0C)

17.0C to the 9th (13.7C)

16.7C to the 10th(14.5C)

16.8C to the 11th (17.5C)

17.0C to the 12th (19.2C)

17.3C to the 13th (20.5C)

[summer blizzard]

Should be at

18.4C to the 6th (15.9C)

17.9C to the 7th (14.8C)

17.4C to the 8th (14.0C)

17.0C to the 9th (13.7C)

16.7C to the 10th(14.5C)

16.8C to the 11th (17.5C)

17.0C to the 12th (19.2C)

17.3C to the 13th (20.5C)

16.7C to the 10th is a massive drop from day one.

ECWMF, GEM and GFS indicate that we will see a drop on the 14th, 15th and 16th.

Still hopeful of a below average outcome although my 15.4C is likely to be on the high side.

[reef]

Hadley is on 18.4C to the 6th. Yesterday was 15.6C.

The movement upwards in the second half of next week looks a little stunted now, with temperatures not too far above average by day, nights remain pretty mild however. A lot depends on cloud levels. If its sunny, the temperature will rise much more than is suggested. Cloud levels are notoriously hard to predict in moist south-westerlies though.

[Milhouse]

16.7C to the 10th is a massive drop from day one.

ECWMF, GEM and GFS indicate that we will see a drop on the 14th, 15th and 16th.

Still hopeful of a below average outcome although my 15.4C is likely to be on the high side.

You are expecting it to be below 15.4c?

[summer blizzard]

You are expecting it to be below 15.4c?

Meant low side. I am still fairly confident of a below average outcome though.

[Summer Sun]

CET is 17.9 to the 7th

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET is 17.5C to the 8th (17.45)

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 14.5C. Minimum today is 11.4C and maxima is around 18C so 17.2C by tomorrows update is likely.

The 06z GFS would then have us at

16.9C to the 10th (14.1)

16.9C to the 11th (17.5)

17.1C to the 12th (18.6)

17.1C to the 13th (18.1)

17.0C to the 14th (15.6)

16.8C to the 15th (13.9)

16.8C to the 16th (16.0)

[DR Hosking]

Philip Eden has 17.2C from 1-9th