2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[Staffordshire]

Bit disapointing with theese downgrades but surely there's still something to play for!

Edited August 1, 2011 by Staffordshire

[weatherobsuk]

Glad I managed to have some sleep just now. Giving whats coming out of the Bay of Biscay has some potential for the South later on. http://en.allmetsat.com/images/lightning-europe.php

[Staffordshire]

Anyone mind posting the estofex, Uksaf forecast as Im on iPod so can't thanks!

[Jane Louise]

A potent short-wave trough will be moving from N Iberia across the Bay of Biscay towards UK, pushing an EML into France. A developing SFC low in SW France will favour moisture return into S-CNTRL France which results in moderately instability during the peak heating hours, approx. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE seem reasonable to become available. With 25 m/s mid-level jet around the base of the trough, around 20 m/s of deep layer shear will become available, overlaping well with the instability. Despite rather strong capping, storms are expected to initiate in the mid afternoon hours and organize into multicells and supercells. Severe wind gust and large to very large hail will be the primary threat. Probabilities for a tornado or two are higher towards the evening when SREH improves across S France. Storms could cluster into a larger system across the central France in the evening hours, trailing NEwards and diminish overnight when instability vanishes.

http://www.estofex.org/

Nothing from UKASF yet, but I'm sure Stuart will post up when its out.

Can't seem to post the image up ,will keep trying for you Staffordshire.

[Stuart]

I will if if it before 10

[Jane Louise]

I will if if it before 10

Lol Stu, I'm hoping they don't leave it to late either.

[Phelpsy]

i noticed the sky here earlier to Jane, but nothing come of it as usual lol

[Staffordshire]

Thanks for that, looks like a bit of a bummer then

[Harry]

Bit disapointing with theese downgrades but surely there's still something to play for!

I have been rather on the pessimistic side I admit, but there does seem to be a hell of a lot of uncertainty over the coming day or two.

We have heat, we have moisture, we have depressions, we have fronts, we have troughs, lots of sunshine....all of which are constantly being relocated on charts, models and the like.

Lets not rule anything out just yet...for one, the BBC/MetO now thinking heat could stay into Wednesday (30C forecast for SE at the moment) which wasn't forecast a few days ago...lets be patient

Edited August 1, 2011 by Harry

[weatherobsuk]

Kent clipper on the cards with that MCS holds itself together coming into France. Looks to be build around the main core now so its 'tapping' into the CAPE avaliable. http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

[Jane Louise]

i noticed the sky here earlier to Jane, but nothing come of it as usual lol

I really believed we were going to get a storm . I thought I heard thunder but it was a damn jet grrrrrr. If it aint a jet it's always a wheelie bin lol

Oh well, let's see what tomorrow brings for us.

[Stuart]

I really believed we were going to get a storm . I thought I heard thunder but it was a damn jet grrrrrr. If it aint a jet it's always a wheelie bin lol

Oh well, let's see what tomorrow brings for us.

i agree there jane there a lot of them here

going be wose when i move going be next of a airport

Edited August 1, 2011 by Stuart

[NUT]

Must admit estofex is looking promising..........but can it come together? Only time will tell

[Chris K]

Kent clipper on the cards with that MCS holds itself together coming into France. Looks to be build around the main core now so its 'tapping' into the CAPE avaliable. http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

I would love to be in West/Central Spain right now. It's interesting watching it develop on there.

Anyway, although there doesn't seem to be as much potential anymore for the SW tomorrow, lets hope something does develop when the fronts continue moving in - considering there still is some uncertainty.

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 22:19 Monday, 1st August 2011

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011

Areas Affected:

MDT: SE Scotland, NE England and E Midlands SLGT: E Scotland, N England, Midlands, W Country, East Anglia and Home Counties

Synopsis:

An upper ridge continues to strengthen to the east of the United Kingdom, whilst a quasi-stationary cold front will straddle W-C Britain. The main bulk of any noteworthy convective activity will be along and to the east of this frontal boundary.

Discussion:

High WBPT's continue to be advected northwards across C and E Britain during the forecast period, associated with a warm and humid airmass. Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg CAPE to develop, providing an environment favourable for convective initiation. In fact, due to the more widespread coverage of insolation compared to Monday, lightning is more likely to occur.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop in a weakly-sheared environment. ELT's as low as -35C are possible which would allow some decent deep convection to develop, particularly aided by topographic uplift and thus those areas to the east of high ground, based on a predominant southwesterly wind, will be at greatest risk of thunder and lightning. Severe weather is unlikely although some small hail and locally large rainfall totals are possible during some slow-moving storms.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms will initially develop over NE England/E Scottish Borders through the morning, and this development will then extend further south towards The Wash during the afternoon. Storms that do develop will pulse NEwards over the North Sea, where they will slowly decay during the evening.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/59

[Staffordshire]

Grrrrrrrn it frustrates me so so much that for once the west are forecast to get storms then at the last moment the NE nicks them! They've had brilliant storm season and they get spolit in the winter aswelll GRrRRRRR.

[Static Prevails]

Is it okay for me to pretend I'm just ten miles further east so I can be in the orange risk box in the UKASF forecast map?

It's a day to keep an eye on. There will be more potential than there was today, definitely.

[A.J]

Grrrrrrrn it frustrates me so so much that for once the west are forecast to get storms then at the last moment the NE nicks them! They've had brilliant storm season and they get spolit in the winter aswelll GRrRRRRR.

Well, as the old saying goes, if you don't like it, then move!...............and if you can't move, then make the best of it and stop moaning!

[TheToastPeople]

Well, as the old saying goes, if you don't like it, then move!...............and if you can't move, then make the best of it and stop moaning!

Exactly what i thought! Would love to see a storm before i move though...

[Staffordshire]

Well, as the old saying goes, if you don't like it, then move!...............and if you can't move, then make the best of it and stop moaning!

It's not all that simple you know?

[Costa Del Fal]

18z GFS is even worse. I certainly have my doubts now about this week... :lol:

Edited August 1, 2011 by Blizzards

[Nick F]

Convective / Storm forecast - Issued 01/08/2011 22:30

Valid: 02/08/2011 10:00 - 03/08/2011 06:00

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

A large low pressure system in the Atlantic to the west of the UK and ridge over central southern Europe on Tuesday ... draws a warm moist and increasingly unstable S to SW flow across the UK. At 12z, slow-moving cold front expected to lie from Penzance - Manchester - Inverness, front decays in situ by 00z Weds.

... MIDLANDS, NERN and E ENGLAND, S SCOTLAND ...

Falling heights downstream of large upper trough and slightly cooler air advection above warm moist Tm airmass to east of cold front across the west will lead to some modest destabilisation during Tuesday afternoon - enhanced by strong surface heating and wind convergence likely ahead of weakening front ... particularly from The Midlands north into Sern Scotland. So here the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening during peak surface heating. Given rather weak vertical shear is indicated, no organised severe weather is likely to evolve. However, given rather high precipitable water values indicated (up to 30-33mm) - there is some concern of some localised torrential downpours with a risk of flash flooding.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

Also can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[NUT]

Latest updates are less encouraging does seem awful touch and go.........we could well miss out just

[anvilhead]

seems to be something heading for the IOW right now, doesnt look massively potent, but its building

[ZONE 51]

seems to be something heading for the IOW right now, doesnt look massively potent, but its building

i am keeping a watch on this one! and keep check on the stuff in the SW!

i think this has the potential to blow into a thunderstorm when it hits the shores..

Edited August 2, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm