2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[ZONE 51]

They have reached our shores, just along the South coast but no thunder or lightning going by Blitzortung detector. a few showers inland developing around the SE , and a lot of heavy ppn in other areas to, but no lightning detected.

some incredible convective cloud building to my south now! can see rain streaks!

[ZONE 51]

this one must be heavy, all lit up orange with rain streaks and its about to hit London, looks very heavy but not shown on radar yet, these shower could grow as sun rises!

it looks amazing, must be local as cant see on radar any heavy stuff around Surrey, il check rain today.

[ZONE 51]

just arrowed the one that brushed here and with another coming in..

ok last one but i just have to show the Southeasterners this...

we have something interesting going on here..

im looking at big convective cloud going up around here

Edited August 2, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

The GFS 00z(new morning update!) is good if you like thunderstorms and intense downpours, not for everyone, but il leave it to others to post on this as i have to go now, another hot day in places with a humid feel with high dew points in places.

Edited August 2, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Chris K]

Tiny bit fresher outside this morning with drizzle. Looking through the gaps in the cloud I can see towers building already

I think some you guys in east/ne could be looking at some fun...maybe.

[BB1979]

Absolutely throwing it down in Central London. Caught everyone ... myself included ... by surprise. Rivers in the street style rain

[Coast]

A potent short-wave trough will be moving from N Iberia across the Bay of Biscay towards UK, pushing an EML into France. Nothing from UKASF yet, but I'm sure Stuart will post up when its out. Can't seem to post the image up ,will keep trying for you Staffordshire.

Morning all!, here's the piccies to go with ESTOFEX and UKASF:

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 22:29 Monday, 1st August 2011

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011

MDT: SE Scotland, NE England and E Midlands

SLGT: E Scotland, N England, Midlands, W Country, East Anglia and Home Counties

Synopsis:

An upper ridge continues to strengthen to the east of the United Kingdom, whilst a quasi-stationary cold front will straddle W-C Britain. The main bulk of any noteworthy convective activity will be along and to the east of this frontal boundary.

Discussion:

High WBPT's continue to be advected northwards across C and E Britain during the forecast period, associated with a warm and humid airmass. Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg CAPE to develop, providing an environment favourable for convective initiation. In fact, due to the more widespread coverage of insolation compared to Monday, lightning is more likely to occur.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop in a weakly-sheared environment. ELT's as low as -35C are possible which would allow some decent deep convection to develop, particularly aided by topographic uplift and thus those areas to the east of high ground, based on a predominant southwesterly wind, will be at greatest risk of thunder and lightning. Severe weather is unlikely although some small hail and locally large rainfall totals are possible during some slow-moving storms.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms will initially develop over NE England/E Scottish Borders through the morning, and this development will then extend further south towards The Wash during the afternoon. Storms that do develop will pulse NEwards over the North Sea, where they will slowly decay during the evening.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just posted this in response to Nick F's comments in the recent status updates.

Indeed, saw those on the NW radar and there was some local AcCas here in Newbury too. The skies are clearing well towards the west as far as I can see and with the sun getting to work, quite a few folk COULD GET LUCKY! Bring on the TL and perhaps we should keep our eyes on the stuff currently over France.

Let's all just keep our fingers crossed and maybe just maybe I'll add to my poor tally of 3 Thunder days, all of which have been pretty pitiful.

Thundery Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 2, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

and a few more charts to see what may be in store for today:

Nice orange blob smack bang in the middle of the country later:

Critical values KO.

> 6: no potential risk thunderstorms.

2-6: small potential risk for thunderstorms.

< 2: potential risk for thunderstorms.

Some critical values for the Soaring Index.

15-20: isolated showers, 20% risk for thunderstorms

20-25: occasionally showers, 20-40% risk for thunderstorms

25-30: frequent showers, 40-60% risk for thunderstorms.

30-35: 60-80% risk for thunderstorms.

>35 : >80% risk for thunderstorms.

Have we got enough CAPE and shear though?

A bit of rain through the day in places:

Lapse rates nothing special:

TBH, I see a day a bit like yesterday - not huge potential, but worth keeping an eye on the middle and slightly East of the country late afternoon.

[Harry]

About to drive through the only downpour I'm likely to see. Looks v much like a decaying storm, v elevated with nice features

[Harry]

www.sat24.com

Already some potent storms erupting over S of France...the low responsible is tracking North so hopefully will deliver something later....sheer fantasy I know but it'll be nice watching the satellite today any rate. I have just had this gut feeling for the past few days that the low could track further north and throw something towards S England, contrary to almost every model/forecast going...then again, pretty much every model, chart and forecast was breaking out thunderstorms across C/S England on 27th June which didn't materialise either....

Edited August 2, 2011 by Harry

[Static Prevails]

www.sat24.com

Already some potent storms erupting over S of France...the low responsible is tracking North so hopefully will deliver something later....sheer fantasy I know but it'll be nice watching the satellite today any rate.

It also shows cloud starting to thin a little and break up, meaning more sunshine and therefore more chance for convection.

Certainly a day to keep an eye on.

[Coast]

Already some potent storms erupting over S of France....

France looks like it will cop a big one today with Benelux countries and Germany getting the bulk of the action tomorrow. I'm holding out for any imports or something home grown, but the chances have receded a little. Anyway, fingers crossed!

[NUT]

Still the same this morning really for us up here. SE Scotland could get something but looks unlikely here in the lowlands. So near yet so far it would seem.............

[P-M]

Met Office seems to mention thunder again for the NE which was absent from yesterdays forecast:

Headline:

Rain clearing, but still a few sharp showers to come.

Today:

A cloudy morning with further rain at times, some of which again could be heavy. The rain should clear by midday with a brighter afternoon and a few sharp showers. Maximum temperature 24 °C.

Tonight:

A muggy night to come. Any heavy, locally thundery, showers slowly clearing during the evening, then some clear spells overnight. Minimum temperature 14 °C.

Wednesday:

Another hot and humid day, again with the risk of some scattered heavy, thundery showers developing. Maximum temperature 26 °C.

Updated: 0343 on Tue 2 Aug 2011

[Chris K]

Got stubborn dark grey cloud still smack bang over my head. Still feels so humid though. I wonder if this front of cloud over us will shift a bit to allow some convection around here...the stuff moving through France looks interesting but at this moment, it looks like itll track too far North East for me.

A day of satellite watching!

[TheToastPeople]

Suns back out today very nice 23c, cape and lifted arnt to great here today but will be in negative for the first time in a week so fingers crossed again#!

[Methuselah]

www.sat24.com

Already some potent storms erupting over S of France...the low responsible is tracking North so hopefully will deliver something later....sheer fantasy I know but it'll be nice watching the satellite today any rate. I have just had this gut feeling for the past few days that the low could track further north and throw something towards S England, contrary to almost every model/forecast going...then again, pretty much every model, chart and forecast was breaking out thunderstorms across C/S England on 27th June which didn't materialise either....

Let's just hope you are right, Harry. Maybe this morning's downpour was a sign of things to come?

[Coast]

Dewpoints way up today as well, more sticky members here again!

[Flash Elvis]

Dont want to put a downer on it, but that stuff over SW France is decaying....lets hope it finds some juice and spices itself up

Got nothing but grey sky atm....

[Purplepixii]

more sticky members here again!

That comment is just so wrong...

[Flash Elvis]

That comment is just so wrong...

Can we get back on topic please.... :acute: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Coast]

That comment is just so wrong...

I don't have the same smutty mind as some on here.......

[TheToastPeople]

Has anyone seen the met office weather warning?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Staffordshire]

Okay I've figured out why we haven't got the storms today! Whenever I mention it to another person (sister) on the next run it goes wrong! So from now on I'm going to jeep it zipped.