2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[MP-R]

Well I have to say I'm not that bothered about storms this time around - I just want some sunshine to actually class this spell as a 'warmer' than average let alone hot!

I think the West Country has better chances this weekend as what was being shown as a ver deep low of 990mb is now a very slack low with a large centre of about 1005mb which should be perfect for slow-moving thundery downpours.

As for today, just looks like an ordinary British summer day.

[sunny scunny]

I see my area has got a weather warning for later.No doubt it will stay hot and sunny all day.

[Lauren]

One is feeling rather damp today.

With humidity obviously.....

[Coast]

Has anyone seen the met office weather warning?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Hmm seems to cover the areas that have been highlighted variously this morning and mentions the T word at last!

Issued at - 02 Aug 2011, 10:31

Valid from - 02 Aug 2011, 15:00

Valid to - 02 Aug 2011, 22:00

Slow moving scattered and heavy showers will develop across parts of eastern England this afternoon, giving rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm in 3 hours. However, up to 40 mm of rain is possible in 1 to 2 hours very locally, with hail and thunder.

Good luck to anyone who gets that!

[lewisosd]

Just had a nice shower about an hour ago. Sun is out now, hoping this gives way to some convection. A day of radar watching me thinks!

[VillagePlank]

[London/SE]

Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.

LI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is T_d line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.

Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.

Edited August 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[weatherobsuk]

Saw the Beeb forecast mention the possibility of storms in the East later on today also.

<_< You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.

[Harry]

[London/SE]

Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.

LI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is T_d line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.

Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.

Arguably one of the more interesting bits of data to note on that skew chart is the CIN (Convective Inhibition)...which is 0!

Just checked GFS 06z which indicates virtually 0 CAPE for London today....so which is it, zero or 800+?

This is why I am doubtful, in part, of some of the models/charts floating around today...seems all very "what is going to happen"

Edited August 2, 2011 by Coast

[TheToastPeople]

I spoke to soon earlyer now the liften index here Wont be going negative gfs give me a storm i need one.

[Staffordshire]

Saw the Beeb forecast mention the possibility of storms in the East later on today also.

<_< You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.

Agreed!

[shuggee]

Lightning showing-up between Hexham and Haltwhistle in the northern Pennines - first of the day.

Probably just OON with his pixie dust.

[Staffordshire]

Things look to be kicking of in Wales now...

[Stuart]

Good luck all i dont think i will see anything

[Costa Del Fal]

Compared to what was showing the other day, this is now quite a disappointment with only weak/slight potential for the East where it appeared rather greater for the West before. Oh well... maybe next time! :lol:

[P-M]

Must say the NE has been pretty amazing in terms of how many storms we have had. In total I have seen or heard 8 seperate storms. Looks like the thunderstorm to the west of Newcastle is building to the SE but we shall see. Had a mini storm last night so all good so far. Not holding out for much tbh this time around but we still have 4 weeks of August to go. I wouldn't worry about other areas not seeing any because the south does tend to fare better than the north usually so I should imagine you will all see some down there!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Compared to what was showing the other day, this is now quite a disappointment with only weak/slight potential for the East where it appeared rather greater for the West before. Oh well... maybe next time! :lol:

Same old story every time, I can't remember the last time I even heard distant thunder let alone experience a storm. Funnily enough I think we had more thunder last year up until this point than we have had this year; that really is saying something because last year was dire for storms too.

[Coast]

Just checked GFS 06z which indicates virtually 0 CAPE for London today....so which is it, zero or 800+?

These are the latest CAPE forecasts I can find:

[Staffordshire]

Is there any potential Sunday? I saw someone mention it earlier or yesterday...

[Cheshire Freeze]

These are the latest CAPE forecasts I can find:

Got more chance of seeing Batman's cape here than any cape of meteorological sense.

[Raidan]

Alot better day here today blue sky sun is out very nice,Not expecting any storms.

[gottolovethisweather]

Oh well, it's just not going to happen, is it? (use reverse phsychology if you feel it's relative) Well there's an outside chance if the beeb and our own Nick F say so, SO WE MUSTN'T GIVE UP YET!

No cape, well here's a good looking cape!

And as for any developments, my eyes are on the mass heading northwards very slowly up from biscay, as others have rightly pointed out.

It's coming straight for me as shown by my creative imagination, well, I can but dream.

All the best.

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 2, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

Alot better day here today blue sky sun is out very nice,Not expecting any storms.

Yea its turned out lovely here after a greyish morning. Still very humid though as expected. I kind of have given up with potential here for today and tomorrow. If something crops up i'll let it surprise me. Some people have mentioned theres a possible hint of something for the weekend? Although obviously the models will change like it has for this week.

[Staffordshire]

When you say weekend what day are you reffering to?

Well I have to say I'm not that bothered about storms this time around - I just want some sunshine to actually class this spell as a 'warmer' than average let alone hot!

I think the West Country has better chances this weekend as what was being shown as a ver deep low of 990mb is now a very slack low with a large centre of about 1005mb which should be perfect for slow-moving thundery downpours.

As for today, just looks like an ordinary British summer day.

[NUT]

We will probably get no storms here today but damn it is humid!

[Raidan]

Yes still very humid now the grey cloud has gone it actually feels like a proper summers day,A few sites i use still going for thunderstorms this afternoon also saturday and sunday but you know my view on that from previous posts,Any how good luck everyone.