2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[Wet'n'Dry]

After having experienced the grand total of 1 thunder day over the past 14 months you could safely say...no I ain't!

I feel your pain, after all I've only had 3 thunderstorms this year :unsure:

[Raidan]

LOL Carl If i had thought about it i could of answered it myself was kinda obvious,You say you have had 1 thunderstorm in 14 months,thats alot better than i have had,I haven't any in 3 years Might have to get more fluent in french and move to france or even better and follow my dream and go state side.

[Staffordshire]

LOL Carl If i had thought about it i could of answered it myself was kinda obvious,You say you have had 1 thunderstorm in 14 months,thats alot better than i have had,I haven't any in 3 years Might have to get more fluent in french and move to france or even better and follow my dream and go state side.

You share the same fantasy as me , move up to PA, better storms than here, and then lake effect

[Carl46Wrexham]

It may be worth investigating why it is that the Eastern side of the UK (the North East especially) has had so many many storms this year whilst large parts of the western side of the UK have seen little if anything.

Granted, it is normal for the eastern side to experience more thundery activity that the west, I can accept that. I just find it peculiar that this year has been so heavily favoured for one side of the country.

[loopydreamer]

yea ok im in the south east but no one (i dont think) has seen what we would class as a good thunderstorm yet this year. yea okay i've heard thunder and seen lightening but thats just thundery showers passing by real quick! thats just a tease!! we all want a good storm!!!

It may be worth investigating why it is that the Eastern side of the UK (the North East especially) has had so many many storms this year whilst large parts of the western side of the UK have seen little if anything.

Granted, it is normal for the eastern side to experience more thundery activity that the west, I can accept that. I just find it peculiar that this year has been so heavily favoured for one side of the country.

what??? you think chatham has seen lots of storms this year??? you are wrong mate!!!!!

[sbiggs]

I do have to say that working in cambridge and living 10 miles from it, and only having a single 15 min infrequent storm this year, you can't stereotype all of the east. Stop whinging

[Jane Louise]

Carl, I reckon it's all to do with the North sea being cold up there. Us Westerners are not having much luck, not forgetting others of course. It's been so hot here and not a sign of convection.Even rain will do me but even that isen't happening lately.

[VillagePlank]

Here's another handy chart.

The chance of convective weather turning into t/storms:

The numbers down the left are the K-Index, and the one's across the top are the Totals Totals. Totals Totals is normally used for assessing storm strength if they should form, and K-Index is used for assessing convective potential.

So, once convection has started, you can look to the skew-T to figure out if storms are likely. Here's the 06z GFS forecast skew-T for Cambridge:

You'll find the numbers over to the right of the image which are KI=25, and TT=44. This gives a chance of 58% of a t/storm occuring in Cambridge given convective initiation at 6pm, today.

Alas, a 47% chance in Rochester.

Happy t/storm hunting!

Edited August 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[Neilsouth]

Mackeral sky to my south east, other than that.. poor storm wise

[loopydreamer]

this is why i get a little annoyed somtimes on here! everyone just presumes that everyone in the south east sees storms more than you guys in the west and i hate it when certain members get grudgy with us! its not right!! cant remember the day now but thunder and lightening passed through one afternoon! was it june! yea it was good to see but from what i have read here it made it seem like we had loads of thunder and lightening! i didn't! i saw three big showers ! ist one distant lightening not seen because of cloud cover and a rumble of thunder! 2nd one very distant rumble of thunder ? no lightening! and 3rd one was better lightening not seen because under cloud cover distant rumble and then a flash and bang overhead! How is that me seeing loads of thunder and lightening in the south east this year! yes i know i have seen more than some of you but is that really much more! *shakes head*

[Sprites]

pasta ,mackerel, tomatoes beans, bread no light-Ening though. hahaha

[Joneseye]

Convection should initiate and then, hopefully, unstable conditions indicated by LI should be able to take over and tap into that CAPE. But don't forget - it might well initiate above your head, but someone miles away might get the benefit!

That is the norm for our location

[loopydreamer]

pasta ,mackerel, tomatoes beans, bread no light-Ening though. hahaha

[Carl46Wrexham]

this is why i get a little annoyed somtimes on here! everyone just presumes that everyone in the south east sees storms more than you guys in the west and i hate it when certain members get grudgy with us! its not right!! cant remember the day now but thunder and lightening passed through one afternoon! was it june! yea it was good to see but from what i have read here it made it seem like we had loads of thunder and lightening! i didn't! i saw three big showers ! ist one distant lightening not seen because of cloud cover and a rumble of thunder! 2nd one very distant rumble of thunder ? no lightening! and 3rd one was better lightening not seen because under cloud cover distant rumble and then a flash and bang overhead! How is that me seeing loads of thunder and lightening in the south east this year! yes i know i have seen more than some of you but is that really much more! *shakes head*

Sorry that you might be getting a bit annoyed but if you read my post again you will note that my query was more about why the "North East" in particular has seen so much in the way of activity this year. I don't recall saying anything along the lines of the South East getting everything which is what I have occasionally seen posted in these forums now and again.

[VillagePlank]

Just to put my last two posts together.

First, let's get the skew-T from the time we're interested in - midday, tomorrow:

Will surface heating trigger convection? Well, it's on a knife edge at 22C (the Theta-W) trigger point.

If it does trigger, then will convective clouds turn into thunderstorms? I'd give it 75% chance.

So the forecast is ... if convection can trigger, thunderstorms are likely.

I hope this starts to show how very unlikely thunderstorms occuring, at a point in time, are. The fact they do occur is down to the law of large numbers (there's an awful large amount of places in the world)

It really is a miracle of nature, and we should feel lucky to be able to observe one.

Edited August 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[Coast]

I'm still looking at tomorrow primarily at the moment, but take Sparticle's charts as a positive sign IF certain things happen in the next two to three hours. Based on the information from this mornings charts and models I am still favouring North - East Anglia if it is going to happen, but like a can of petrol without a matchstick, we need that spark!

[Raidan]

The sites i mentioned earlier that were still going for thunderstorms this afternoon have scrapped it,Now saying mostly cloudy with slight chance of showers,but they still going for thunderstorms on sunday even got thunderstorm symbols not just rain symbols and saying thunderstorms.

[Coast]

they still going for thunderstorms on sunday even got thunderstorm symbols not just rain symbols and saying thunderstorms.

A long way away yet, but indications currently are for Monday night next, with maybe something Saturday for the North:

[VillagePlank]

but take Sparticle's charts as a positive sign IF certain things happen in the next two to three hours.

My charts are really rules of thumb rather than a technical appraisal but they do seem to be fairly accurate. Of course, there are many other factors - mainly to do with convective initiation - that all go in the mix to a thunderstorm make.

[tomp456]

I haven't actually seen the paper myself but is it true the Sun newspaper forecasted 'vicious' thunderstorms for the UK today/tomorrow/thursday?

:S

[anvilhead]

haha. i that a cell going up directly above Salisbury ?? :o

[gottolovethisweather]

The radar for folk around my neck of the woods is livening up alright, but will it go boom?

Thundery Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edit: Look out SouthWest of Oxford & another cell NorthEast of Reading.

Edited August 2, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[nimbus20]

Radar is showing a clutch of showers/showery rain which has just "exploded" in the western part of Lincolnshire/East Nottinghamshire. Looks rather strange, but if it isn't a ghost image then its developing, and rather fast too

[anvilhead]

cells near oxford and reading!, one further south just north of Salisbury (Acording to raintoday radar) - is it kicking off?!!!!!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

There is a "storm" to the west of me..Moving north..Pictures soon