20th Aug 2011 - Storm/Convective Forecast Discussion and Reports

[Chris K]

Cheers for that explanation. Made it clear for me

Interesting few days of radar watching by the looks of things!

[cobbettp]

Clear, sunny and warm here looking good for tonights storms I hope

[Chris K]

It has very quickly cleared up here. Blue sky and warm at the moment.

on Sat24 its apparently showing lightning happening south west of Cornwall, approaching the Isles if Scilly

If the cluster of showers doesn't die out (always does in Bristol Channel ) then South Wales might be in for something?

Edited August 20, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Erbyskerby]

Thought i just heard a couple of faint rumbles out to sea. Sky looks threatening and radar show some sferics about. I'm near Padstow could that be what is showing on the lightning map (have no idea how far away these things can be before you see/hear them!)

[cobbettp]

Just looking out at the sky watching for clouds to build lol well you gotta have hope!

[staplehurst]

Quite a number of strikes from Isles of Scilly NEwards off west coast of Cornwall now, some intense radar echoes visible.

[Harry]

Well, given those storms on the Cornwall approaches, Estofex's forecast is so far going perfectly....if it continues to go this way, we may well see nothing at all!

[kaz]

Thought i just heard a couple of faint rumbles out to sea. Sky looks threatening and radar show some sferics about. I'm near Padstow could that be what is showing on the lightning map (have no idea how far away these things can be before you see/hear them!)

Hi yea i would say you would be able to hear thunder from where you are, noise always travels further over sea as there is nothing to block the noise. I am keeping an eye on radar but as yet they seem to be moving up the bristol channel and not making far inland.

keep us updated lol

[gottolovethisweather]

Thought i just heard a couple of faint rumbles out to sea. Sky looks threatening and radar show some sferics about. I'm near Padstow could that be what is showing on the lightning map (have no idea how far away these things can be before you see/hear them!)

Welcome Erbyskerby.

My parents are on hols just southwards down the coast from you and they are keeping their eyes and ears peeled too.

Blitzortung website suggests there have been a few sferics during the last hour and I would think, more to come.

Please, keep the reports coming.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 20, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[tinybill]

sounds of distant thunder here in suffolk radar looking very hoprfull soon

Edited August 20, 2011 by tinybill

[Erbyskerby]

Another grumble just now - i'm watching the clouds as they travel up the coast. Keep getting little gusts of breeze every now and then. It is a long way away but definitely something brewing. Usually they scoot past us and on up the Bristol Channel (if they have strength enough). Startingto rain now - fingers crossed! Thanks for the welcome btw!!!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Looks like it's going to slip past to the south again - just as well I'e got 5 acres to top this afternoon!

[Chris K]

Current track of the storms off of Cornwall seem to be heading in the direction of Swansea area in South Wales. All depends if they keep their intensity!

[tinybill]

Looks like it's going to slip past to the south again - just as well I'e got 5 acres to top this afternoon!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like its going south out from norwich heavy rain now in ipswich

[Jane Louise]

From UKWW: fingers Xed

Edited the title of the thread to include today, as it's all kind of part of the same original synoptic set-up.

On the back side of the ENE advancing moisture/thermal plume, some thunderstorms have developed as an upper trough approaches, to the west of Cornwall. These look like move NE through the afternoon and evening, perhaps bringing some action to parts of Wales, the Midlands, and perhaps parts of N England. The trough will cross areas further south overnight, and some instability is noted. Some models have *some* precip overnight from time to time, so it's possible that a few showers/isol thunderstorms will cross central, southern, and south-eastern parts overnight.

The air advecting into southern parts overnight is even more warm/moist, but I think the fact that the upper trough is just skirting this area is precluding a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms - might be one to keep and eye on through the evening though!

-----

-------------

Paul Knightley

http://ukstormchaser.blogspot.com/

Rain Today?

Follow MeteoGroup UK on Facebook

*All views expressed are my own, and not those of my employer*

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=44454#M64702

[Chris K]

From UKWW: fingers Xed

Edited the title of the thread to include today, as it's all kind of part of the same original synoptic set-up.

On the back side of the ENE advancing moisture/thermal plume, some thunderstorms have developed as an upper trough approaches, to the west of Cornwall. These look like move NE through the afternoon and evening, perhaps bringing some action to parts of Wales, the Midlands, and perhaps parts of N England. The trough will cross areas further south overnight, and some instability is noted. Some models have *some* precip overnight from time to time, so it's possible that a few showers/isol thunderstorms will cross central, southern, and south-eastern parts overnight.

The air advecting into southern parts overnight is even more warm/moist, but I think the fact that the upper trough is just skirting this area is precluding a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms - might be one to keep and eye on through the evening though!

-----

-------------

Paul Knightley

http://ukstormchaser.blogspot.com/

Rain Today?

Follow MeteoGroup UK on Facebook

*All views expressed are my own, and not those of my employer*

http://www.ukweather...id=44454#M64702

Could this finally mean we get something today? At the moment its path is too far west of me, but as it moves slowly eastwards this evening we might see something?

Cornwall looks like its about to get something decent hitting its shores soon!

[Norfolk Sheep]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like its going south out from norwich heavy rain now in ipswich

Good, it can hold off til 6pm as far as I'm concerned

[Jane Louise]

Could this finally mean we get something today? At the moment its path is too far west of me, but as it moves slowly eastwards this evening we might see something?

Cornwall looks like its about to get something decent hitting its shores soon!

I do hope so Bugganauts. It's about time. Plenty of radar watching me thinks Good luck

But as usual, the MO thinks Not!!!

Headline:

Largely dry with only a few, mainly light showers.

This Evening and Tonight:

A few scattered showers at first this evening but many places dry with some late sunshine. Largely dry overnight with some clear spells. Cloudier with a chance of a little light rain in Devon and Cornwall toward dawn. Minimum temperature 13 °C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_weather.html

[Erbyskerby]

Some amazing cloud formations here! Will try and upload some pics when my niece has finished playing cbeebies!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello,

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.

The encircled action area is heading on a northwards or slightly NNE projectory, which in my opinion, is precisly where we need it, in order to effect the masses OVERNIGHT.

The key problem I think we have is the current daytime troughs etc. and how they will interact with this feature if it gets to our shores. This point, I will leave to others more knowledgeable.

All things being well there has been and will continue to be some storm action for some today and into the overnight.

I'm personally hoping for the later period to come into play.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 20, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Lauren]

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

[Jane Louise]

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

Water it ,it's bound to rain then Lol

[Coast]

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

What, do you think this is a weather forum?

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.

Battle of Britain?

[Raidan]

Heart just skipped a beat! Haven't looked at any radars for a few hours and thought id check up on the storm situation,I cant believe it! that area of rain to the west is producing sferics and actually looks like we could see something today,i really hope so fingers crossed,Good luck Bugganuts,Jane and of course everyone else

[Coast]

well in this sort of setup, you can get storms randomly developing in the eastern Chanel, primarily due to the high SSTs. I still think this is a possibility tonight, it happened a couple of years ago I remember so I am still optimistic for some overseas stuff tonight.

OK, I'm hearing that and to show what they are, my local sea temp is 18.7 DgC currently

http://www.channelco...harts/?chart=77

Been a corking hot and clear Summer day here in Eastbourne and of particular interest to me is the dewpoint currently at 14.5 DgC which is at least helpful.

At least someone in the South West has had a bit of action, this is also more than I expected

If it's going to happen, it's going to be between 0300hrs and 0600 hrs according to GFS 12z run:

But as a word of caution, GFS is on it'sown with this Northerly aspect of the French storms........