20th Aug 2011 - Storm/Convective Forecast Discussion and Reports

[Harry]

Hello,

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.

The encircled action area is heading on a northwards or slightly NNE projectory, which in my opinion, is precisly where we need it, in order to effect the masses OVERNIGHT.

The key problem I think we have is the current daytime troughs etc. and how they will interact with this feature if it gets to our shores. This point, I will leave to others more knowledgeable.

All things being well there has been and will continue to be some storm action for some today and into the overnight.

I'm personally hoping for the later period to come into play.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

I love your optimism, but there is simply far too much ENE push between the south coast of England and France...if you run the satellite picture (www.yr.no is has a great satellite animation) you can see everything just north of the BoB is shunted rapidly ENE...if we do see anything tonight I'd be amazed to be honest...I don't think I've ever felt so pessimistic

12z emerging looks like the devil's work but for bit of thundery rain on the commute to work Tuesday morning!

[TheToastPeople]

Today started warm and sunny but turned grey around lunchtime with some rain, Now the sun is back out its feeling humid but i think im in the wronge place for anything tonight so i hope it happens for someone tonight!

[gottolovethisweather]

I love your optimism, but there is simply far too much ENE push between the south coast of England and France...

Thanks Harry,

Yes, I'm an optimistic type of guy, sometimes you have to be.

Re: the push ENE, why would this and why should this be? upper steering winds, maybe?

The area of interest I previously encircled in another post (further south from the main mass) continues to still head in a northwards fashion IMO. Furthermore it's certainly possible, the models and/or other sources would have SO FAR failed to pick up on this thundery mass, so I await updates and that's why I (possibly foolishly) remain hopeful.

I reckon I might get some beers and ciders in for a all night radar watching session and be done with it, a WIN-WIN situation.

Here's hoping for some more action.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 20, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

Heart just skipped a beat! Haven't looked at any radars for a few hours and thought id check up on the storm situation,I cant believe it! that area of rain to the west is producing sferics and actually looks like we could see something today,i really hope so fingers crossed,Good luck Bugganuts,Jane and of course everyone else

I don't want to give up yet, but it looks like its losing intensity as it spreads along the Bristol Channel Typical! It'll probably re-intensify as it heads NE-wards...but not until it drizzles on Bristol first haha...

[Erbyskerby]

This afternoon's sky over my house (hope this works)

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/5/p1020878z.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/p1020876n.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/4/p1020873a.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/7/p1020858r.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/163/p1020857x.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/535/p1020850h.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/p1020879ak.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/842/p1020846y.jpg/

Edited August 20, 2011 by Erbyskerby

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't want to give up yet, but it looks like its losing intensity as it spreads along the Bristol Channel Typical! It'll probably re-intensify as it heads NE-wards...but not until it drizzles on Bristol first haha...

Sorry Bugganuts, but yes, let it slip away northwards now and then we can LET THE FRENCH TROOPS invade the uk. Well, that's the idea.

The cards are being dealt down south, it's just a case of whether the French just send us their jokers or an ACE or two.

Yours Optimistically

gottolovethisweather

Edit: no alcohol being consumed just yet!

This afternoon's sky over my house (hope this works)

Nice one, almost mammatus like!

Confirmed thunder heard earlier by parents near Porthcothan too.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited August 20, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

Sorry Bugganuts, but yes, let it slip away northwards now and then we can LET THE FRENCH TROOPS invade the uk.

Well, that's the idea. The cards are being dealt down south but will the French just send us their jokers or an ACE or two.

Yours Optimistically

gottolovethisweather

Edit: no alcohol being consumed just yet!

I'd happily sacrifice the showers to the west to allow the French stuff to make its way northwards.....but it doesn't look like itll reach me if it did, more like just the south east

[Callie]

OK, I'm hearing that and to show what they are, my local sea temp is 18.7 DgC currently

Been a corking hot and clear Summer day here in Eastbourne

I must agree the sky has been so clear this afternoon and such a vivid blue

[Liam Ellis]

Gone all warm and humid here in Cardiff city centre - sky looking very turbulenced. One or two heavy raindrops now and again.

[Chris K]

The cloud above me now is soo dark (probably partly to do with approaching sunset in the next hour, as well as being the leftovers from the stuff off the coast of Cornwall earlier) but anyway its quiet.. No rain or anything.

Quiet day tomorrow by the looks of it to. Possibly an interesting week for some (hopefully me to ) during next week from Monday night onwards? Fingers crossed! (whilst secretly knowing what will happen)

Edited August 20, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Adi F]

There is some interesting echo's crossing the channel but I am not sure its all precipitation though

[Dean E]

There is some interesting echo's crossing the channel but I am not sure its all precipitation though

I do see this, latest sat does show clouds forming in the channel...

Could be tied into the disturbances over Northern France?

[Adi F]

Ah ok I had not looked at the latest sat. lol

[staplehurst]

Ah ok I had not looked at the latest sat. lol

I suspect it is mid-level stuff that is being detected but no rain actually making it to the ground... yet (or sea should I say)

[Buckster]

after rain this afternoon followed by a lovely clear spell later on - early evening

we've lots of streaming Mackerel sky now looking promising for later

Essex

[gottolovethisweather]

As Adi F mentions above, some strange echoes from the radars in the channel and also some sferics recently reported too inland in parts of the south.

The area I've been keeping my eye on all day is now getting nearer our shores and it is still developing.

Will it, as Harry stated previously drift off SE'wards and miss us all or will it not? I'm staying up for a long night ahead.

Come to daddy ms. MCS. come to daddy.

Ever hopeful cheers.

gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

It does kind of look like it *could* hit the far southeast...reckon there's a chance it can develop 150-200 or so miles wider so it can reach me? haha

However if you look at that mass over northern France right now, its getting pulled eastwards suddenly.

Also, the met office seem to think the fronts bringing the thundery rain Monday night has shifted slightly east a bit more....well..I can see that producing nothing here where I live yet again.

Why is life such a tease...good luck to those in the SE. Cant see my luck improving here tbh. Hopefully 1 day i'll be pleasantly surprised.

I'm grabbing a beer...

Edited August 20, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Adi F]

I have not seen any sferics! none showing on Iceland weather

Edited August 20, 2011 by Adi F

[staplehurst]

Agreed, no sferics currently and the stuff in the Channel is anaprop as a result of the developing mid-level instability. Potential for sferics exists after 1am or so

[Adi F]

yeah i agree its mostly anaprop, I suspect a lot of it are insects and stuff blown out from France.

[TheToastPeople]

Pretty warm and humid outside, not so sure that the storms in biscay will make it to the channel it seems like a long shot

[MP-R]

Those look fantastic over BoB but I seriously doubt anything will come this way tonight and tomorrow actually looks quite quiet.

[ZONE 51]

just waiting n watching. no useful info from me as no access to the bigger pictures! so thanks to those uploading sat and strike detector images through tonight0; but i can get meto rad on here.

[Adi F]

there is a sferic near Dungeness!

[snowfall09]

Something must be brewing, I'm located in Folkestone and just recorded a 1.7mb pressure drop in 3 mins!

Edit - Temp has also gone up from 16.7c to 17.3c within the same time period

Edited August 20, 2011 by snowfall09