Uk Met Office - Worse Or Better Than 10 Years Ago?

[Methuselah]

Maybe if they broaden the warning area's out stating ' Within the highlighted area, there is a risk of snow/rain/storms on Tuesday', much like the US do with their warnings, and then once a warning has been issued continue to modify it as situations change. Prime example would be today, London and East Anglia saw torrential rain this morning - did they put a warning out? NO! Yet they put a warning out for heavy rain that never came on Tuesday and to a certain extent lied to the media afterwards stating they were never wrong and London did get rain (about 3mm in truth).

Overall I don't sympathise as their forcasters are on mega wages and should have understood this by now. The statement in this thread about short term forecast quality not being good enough is spot on, there needs to be more brain power not computer power behind these <48hour forecasts. We deserve better!

Trouble is, matty, that the US's record on warnings is probably no better than here. At least in those places where American weather is a fickle as is ours?

[The PIT]

Talking of bug bears, although this isn't a Met office problem it's a presenter problem is when presenters use personal preferences to say whether it's cold or not. Saying it's a cold night when the average is single figures when the forecast low is double figures is wrong pure and simple.

[Coast]

it's a presenter problem is when presenters use personal preferences to say whether it's cold or not.

Good god no?! Next you'll be saying people are going on personal preference in the Model Discussion Thread!!!

[philglossop]

Good god no?! Next you'll be saying people are going on personal preference in the Model Discussion Thread!!!

Have a look at North West Tonight forecast from yesterday. The weather presenter, told the main presenters to get their winter coats out for the Bank Holiday. Projected temperature? 14 or 15c at the lowest.

It makes you really wonder just how she get the gig.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Have a look at North West Tonight forecast from yesterday. The weather presenter, told the main presenters to get their winter coats out for the Bank Holiday. Projected temperature? 14 or 15c at the lowest.

It makes you really wonder just how she get the gig.

Not exactly shorts and t-shirt weather though.

I think 14c under cloud with a cool breeze would warrant a coat.

Maybe we should not have presenters, just facts listed on a screen for 2 minutes.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the "subjectivity" problem is all about extent and emphasis. Any presenter, even if aiming to produce a fully objective summary of the weather, is going to end up with his/her own preferences coming across on occasion, and I don't have a problem with that. The problem is the gearing of presentations towards reassuring people when the next "good" weather will be, defining good and bad mainly in terms of the amount of disruption and inconvenience that a given type of weather causes. Thus, the value judgements become an important part of the presentations rather than an aside.

Interesting that Coast mentioned the Model Output Discussion thread because I have much the same bugbear over there. I don't mind if we have a discussion on the ins and outs of the model outputs and get a general sense of the majority preferring warm dry sunny weather. I do mind, though, if I have to wade through pages of posts speculating on the next "sustained settled spell" and remind people that 16C, stratocumulus and a cold NE wind doesn't tally with "fine and warm" just because high pressure is close by to the NW.

I haven't seen much evidence of this creeping in over at the Met Office's website though, there have been tentative hints of dumbing down here and there but as a general rule the Met Office seems to stand by the "old-school BBC" method where we're told what they expect what the weather to be and we're left to ourselves to decide if it is good or bad.

[AderynCoch]

Have a look at North West Tonight forecast from yesterday. The weather presenter, told the main presenters to get their winter coats out for the Bank Holiday. Projected temperature? 14 or 15c at the lowest.

It makes you really wonder just how she get the gig.

She could have been exaggerating.

[J10]

I think the "subjectivity" problem is all about extent and emphasis. Any presenter, even if aiming to produce a fully objective summary of the weather, is going to end up with his/her own preferences coming across on occasion, and I don't have a problem with that. The problem is the gearing of presentations towards reassuring people when the next "good" weather will be, defining good and bad mainly in terms of the amount of disruption and inconvenience that a given type of weather causes. Thus, the value judgements become an important part of the presentations rather than an aside.

Interesting that Coast mentioned the Model Output Discussion thread because I have much the same bugbear over there. I don't mind if we have a discussion on the ins and outs of the model outputs and get a general sense of the majority preferring warm dry sunny weather. I do mind, though, if I have to wade through pages of posts speculating on the next "sustained settled spell" and remind people that 16C, stratocumulus and a cold NE wind doesn't tally with "fine and warm" just because high pressure is close by to the NW.

I haven't seen much evidence of this creeping in over at the Met Office's website though, there have been tentative hints of dumbing down here and there but as a general rule the Met Office seems to stand by the "old-school BBC" method where we're told what they expect what the weather to be and we're left to ourselves to decide if it is good or bad.

Regional variation also makes a difference, A NE wind is fine for me as this often means we get the sunniest weather. Whereas, SW winds are no good as damp and drizzly weather can ensue. Unfortunately forecasts lately tend to be tailored for SE parts of the UK,

[Methuselah]

For as far back as I can remember (Napoleonic wars, I think) forecasters' predictions have contained 'subjective' elements. I guess we could go down the tautological route and refer to 'hot' as, temperatures will peak at more than 10^o Fahrenheit above the current thirty-year mean? or whatever. But wouldn't the forecasts become a little long-winded? So, for the sake of brevity, why not just call a spade a spade?

[Aaron]

Yesterday was an absolute catastrophic forecast from the Met Office for my area. The hours of heavy rain turned into 2 - 3 hours of light rain which accumulated to 5 mm. I think I'll just turn the TV off whenever the weather forecast comes on, there is no point in watching it, and I don't care how hard or complex forecasting is, if it's hardly ever right it's just pointless.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re. Pete's post, it's all about extent and emphasis, particularly regarding the use of value judgements. I agree that, short of being very dry and long-winded, any forecast will inevitably contain a certain amount of subjectivity. The Met Office does have guidelines about what temperatures should be termed "warm" etc, and while forecasters should take care to not "cry wolf" by deviating too far from them in order to emphasise cold, I don't see anything wrong with suggesting that people may need coats in breezy conditions and 15C, after all, it is rather below the seasonal average for late August.

It's always been the value judgements that annoy me- like talking apologetically about sunshine and thundery showers, giving the impression that it's expected to be dull and wet (by emphasising that showers and thunder are bad weather) and then promising us a hopeful "improvement" to dry cloudy weather. I agree with JACKONE's comment that sometimes SE-based "improvements" don't apply to other regions of the country, which represents another problem with the whole "reassure people about the next good weather" approach.

As for the last few days the forecast models have had an absolute nightmare pinpointing the area of frontal rain that, until a couple of days ago, was supposed to stay out in the North Sea allowing a day of sunshine and thundery showers yesterday, and perhaps longer outbreaks of rain spreading into NE areas today. I don't blame the Met Office (or any other forecasters) for struggling with the detail in this situation.