Indian Summer Storm Potential! [sept-oct 2011]

[Robbie Garrett]

Can we expect anything to go bang after it? During it, seeing as there's going to be a lot of moist hot air over the UK.

Discuss!!

[Jane Louise]

Hmmm, I haven't heard no mention of a rumble or two as of yet.. but it would certainly be good if we do get a thundery breakdown!

[Chris K]

Don't quote me on this as I'm no expert. But I think the warm weather is meant to end with the high pressure shifting to allow cooler winds to the UK, but still be settled as we progress through October. So if this is the case I can't see, or heard about, any potential yet. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Edited September 23, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Raidan]

Daily Mail have a article talking about a Indian Summer next week,I know you cant always believe what you read in the papers but you never know,A warm/hot week followed by a thundery breakdown would be great could be first and last chance of finally seeing a storm and not just boring wind and rain,My personal opinion of what will happen is either we wont see the weather be that warm more likely dry and with sunny spells OR we will see warm maybe hot conditions and there WILL be a thundery breakdown but the ones who will see it(No Offence)will be the people who have already had there fareshare of storms this year leaving the ones who have had nothing this year STILL with nothing,we can only hope and see how things pan out,Wishing good luck to all

[MP-R]

Well the 12Z showed a picture perfect evolution into a thundery low moving up from the Bay of Biscay if it was summer or earlier in the month before another high was born in the Atlantic allowing a cooler northwesterly in. Time will tell.

[Nick F]

No storm potential I can see - apart from the far NW on Monday.

[Coast]

Simple answer?

Apart from Monday night - absolutely not currently!

[Stuart]

the answer is no at all dont think it will be at all but things could Change

[johnholmes]

for a view on it please see my post of a minute ago in the technical thread.

[weatherobsuk]

GFS almost has a week of consistent 23/24'c temps. However its also that time of year the dinural range is at its peak (max daytime heating, min nightime temps) so storms would have to be homegrown from the max daytime temps to allow anything substantial taking place. Its just the wrong time of year now to be expecting imports from the south given the rapid drop-off in temps. I'll be looking at the charts for any updated troughs forming ahead of any frontal systems waiting in the wings.

[knocker]

Can we expect anything to go bang after it? During it, seeing as there's going to be a lot of moist hot air over the UK.

Discuss!!

I know we often talk about Indian Summers but do we actually know the origin of the expression? I've always taken it as part of US meteorology.

Frontal wave activity makes the first half of September a rainy period in the northern Mid-west states of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but after about the twentieth of the month anticyclonic conditions rerurn with warm airflow from the dry south-west, giving fine weather -the so-called Indian summer. Significantly, the hemispheric zonal index value rises in late September. This anticyclonic weather type has a second phase in the latter half of October, but at this time there are polar outbreaks. The weather is generally cold and dry, although if precipitation does occur there is a high probability of it being in the form of snow.

[Sprites]

A night time import of storms is possible at this time of year, if the heat is supplied from the continent, but the risk is obviously receeding quickly by october, Paris is forecast to have 27c next week so the heat to set-up a thundery area isnt that far away...

[Lauren]

We can only hope!

[MP-R]

There have been thundery setups quite late into October e.g. 16th October 2006 or 17th October 2001 so things might change. Looks like a generally boring breakdown at the end though currently.

[Chris K]

I'm not expecting anything now this year as it's been pretty poor storm wise around here. The possibility could come up for a thundery breakdown after this warm week ahead but so far it looks like a pretty standard, uneventful cool-down is on the cards. This could easily change, will just be checking the charts etc over the coming week to see if any hints appear.

I'm just looking forward to a (hopefully) crisp, snowy winter now, and then wait during 2012 for the next 'storm season' to begin with (again hopefully) a little more excitement.

[Aaron]

A warm, hot spell followed by a rapid cool down come October seems likely. No thundery plumes this month I'm afraid!

[ZONE 51]

Animation of GFS 18z run -

note the sustained and building high pressure with weather systems brushing the North West and being kept back by the strong high pressure. also to note the precipitation over North France early in the run moving across towards South East England..high to strong for anything of interest? i would expect.

These are the 18z charts

lets check the 00z run first before raising any beers..

Edited September 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Robbie Garrett]

I am guessing anything thundery will be due to the heat, not any cold fronts/troughs moving through?

[Dorsetbred]

I know we often talk about Indian Summers but do we actually know the origin of the expression? I've always taken it as part of US meteorology.

Some info on a possible source

Origin

The origin of other 'Indian' phrases, like

Indian giver

, Indian sign, are well-known as referring to North American Indians - who prefer to be called Native Americans or, in Canada, First Nations. The term

Indian summer

reached England in the 19th century, during the heyday of the British Raj in India. This lead to the mistaken belief that the term referred to the Indian subcontinent. In fact, the Indians in question were the Native Americans, and the term began use there in the late 18th century.

Indian summer

is first recorded in

Letters From an American Farmer

, a 1778 work by the French-American soldier turned farmer J. H. St. John de Crèvecoeur (a.k.a. Michel-Guillaume-Jean de Crèvecoeur):

"Then a severe frost succeeds which prepares it to receive the voluminous coat of snow which is soon to follow; though it is often preceded by a short interval of smoke and mildness, called the Indian Summer."

There are many references to the term in American literature in the following hundred years or so. In the 1830s

Indian summer

began to be used figuratively, to refer to any late flowering following a period of decline. It was well enough established as a phrase by 1834 for John Greenleaf Whittier to use the term that way, when in his poem

Memories

he wrote of "The Indian Summer of the heart!". Thomas De Quincey, republished in Bentley's

Works of Thomas De Quincey

, 1855, wrote:

"An Indian summer crept stealthily over his closing days."

In his story

The Guardian Angel,

1867, Oliver Wendell Holmes mentions "

an Indian summer of serene widowhood

".

The English already had names for the phenomenon -

St. Luke’s Summer

,

St. Martin’s Summer

or

All-Hallown Summer

, but these have now all but disappeared and, like the rest of the world, the term Indian summer has been used in the UK for at least a century.

Edited September 25, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Lauren]

Either way it's lovely and sunny and warm today so I'm happy

[rossco89]

Seems to be some activity around the Firth of Clyde area. Certainly looking out the window, it looks pretty black over that way...with a nice peachy tint to the clouds!

[Sprites]

I expect a few of you watched the countryfile weather outlook earlier, temps may reach 26c-27c in the east midlands next wed-thursday, that is quite remarkle at this time of year, doesn't garuntee any thunder will develop, but tomorrow has sharp shower potential for southern areas.

[Coast]

A couple of different views on where the term came from:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer

[Andy Bown]

I think that the best convective occurence of the warm/hot spell is happening this afternoon before the actual spell has

really got going - although temperatures into the high teens/low 20s are widespread across England so it is already very

much above average.

Anyway, quite a decent convergence zone across Somerset/Wiltshire/Berkshire this afternoon with some very sharp pulse

type downpours. One near to my location quickly developed to a rate of nearing 100mm per hour at 16.20 before dying

off.

[Robbie Garrett]

Cb's where I am, looks rather stormy out there. However any storm potential remaining over Northern France