Winter Will Be Cold - But...............

[knocker]

A short opinion by John Hirst, CEO of the Met. Office, in the Times today.

It’s absurd to make alarmist forecasts of a whiteout. That’s not how our weather works

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3191381.ece

[Methuselah]

At last! A newspaper article that's saying something sensible. Guaranteed to go down like a lead balloon, then?

[knocker]

At last! A newspaper article that's saying something sensible. Guaranteed to go down like a lead balloon, then?

Sink without trace I would imagine.

[slinky1989]

would be nice if I didn't have to sign up for a subscription to read it though. Any chance of pasting the article here?

[Backtrack]

Can someone copy and paste the article into this thread? Not subscribing to something I can go in the newsagent and read for free.

[knocker]

You should be able to link to it okay. © The Times

Winter will be cold – but don’t panic just yet

John Hirst

It’s absurd to make alarmist forecasts of a whiteout. That’s not how our weather works

Last year Britain had the coldest start to winter in 100 years and the repeated snowfalls over 40 days before Christmas cost the economy up to £130 million a day.

So it is understandable that there is intense interest in this year’s winter. But the colourful recent headlines predicting “-20C within weeks”, “a winter fuel crisis” and “widespread snow by the end of October” bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting — there is no need for alarm.

These stories do reflect our national obsession with the weather but they can also confuse and even scare vulnerable people. The Met Office’s job is to provide accurate and reliable information and at this stage we see no scientific evidence to support these premature predictions. In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale.

We can say with reasonable certainty that today will be largely overcast, with rain for many places, but as we move towards the weekend it will become mostly dry with skies brightening in the south and east. Over the weekend rain will move southeastwards. We can also say that the current 30 day outlook suggests that next week will be rather cold at times with some snow over high ground in the north of the UK, and frost in some sheltered locations too. What no forecaster can say is whether we’ll see a week of -20C temperatures in Manchester in the second week of December.

This does not mean that harsh winter conditions are not possible, just that they cannot be identified at the moment.

As winter approaches, local government and businesses are preparing for the worst that the British weather can throw at us. But the fact that local authorities are stocking up on grit is no cause for alarm. This is what contingency planners do. In fact, their preparations are encouraging because they mean the country should be in a good position to respond to our short-range forecasts of severe weather.

Last year there was some confusion between our longer-range outlook which provided good advice over the whole winter — as January and February were relatively mild — and our shorter-range forecasts that correctly identified the prolonged cold and snowy weather early in the winter. In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none. Although it is not possible to prevent disruption, our detailed forecasts allowed agencies to put their resources in the right place at the right time to ensure that it was kept to a minimum.

You may ask why we can provide long-term forecasts for things such as the North Atlantic tropical storm season, but doing the same for the UK is still so difficult. It is because the UK is a small island sandwiched between an ocean and a continent, and it lies on a latitude where warm tropical and cold polar air masses fight for supremacy. The UK is also about as far away as it is possible to be from key drivers of long-range predictability, such as La Niña. It’s perhaps no coincidence that the Met Office and the Japanese Meteorological Agency are consistently ranked the top two operational forecasters in the world, given that both ply their trade on island nations with notoriously changeable weather.

There are many contributing influences to long-term weather patterns, such as Atlantic Ocean temperatures, pressure patterns and the extent of Arctic sea ice. Research published by us only this week casts new light on how solar ultraviolet output affects Europe’s winter weather. The long-term challenge is to understand how they might be affected by a changing climate.

In recent years we have seen great scientific and technological advances that allow us to warn of impending severe weather with ever greater lead times and with ever greater detail. Rest assured that this year the Met Office will continue to offer that service, warning of any severe weather in plenty of time to get out the gritters — and the jumpers — when it matters.

John Hirst is chief executive of the Met Office

Edited October 12, 2011 by weather ship

[johnholmes]

thanks for that full quote Fred

For once a really sensible input from the top end of the Met Office-full marks to him.

[Interitus]

It may be sensible comment but frankly it's bit of a non-story and more of a Met. Office PR exercise, sorry.

A bit of background - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8458618/John-Hirst-profile-Met-Office-boss-who-has-been-forced-to-weather-the-storms.html

[Terminal Moraine]

It may be sensible comment but frankly it's bit of a non-story and more of a Met. Office PR exercise, sorry.

A bit of background - http://www.telegraph...the-storms.html

But if it wasn't for papers like the Mail and Express, to name but two, constantly printing the sensationalist rubbish we saw the other day, the Met' Office wouldn't need to be engaged in a PR exercise.

In my opinion it makes a pleasant change to read a balanced article, unfortunately far more people are likely to latch onto the headlines in the sensationalist papers than the low key piece in the Times.

[ZONE 51]

Has anyone thought about the MetOffice releasing a magazine for the shops? i think it would be a great idea, it would be best to have a monthly issue.

[Isolated Frost]

Has anyone thought about the MetOffice releasing a magazine for the shops? i think it would be a great idea, it would be best to have a monthly issue.

That would be great - I'd definitely buy one:

maybe some weather and climate around the world, then weather in the uk, then a monthly forecast, a weekly synoptic forecast, and then maybe a monthly summary of the month preceding the issue - maybe done by Roger Brugge?

[knocker]

Let's not forget the RMetS produce a monthly mag, independant from th MO, that is very informative and well worth reading if you have a serious interest in the weather.

[Methuselah]

It may be sensible comment but frankly it's bit of a non-story and more of a Met. Office PR exercise, sorry.

A bit of background - http://www.telegraph...the-storms.html

In a way you're right: it's not a 'story'. It's just a pity that nearly all of the so-called genuine 'stories' are complete and utter tripe...

[Wales123098]

We we're talking about days off today in economics as my school is likely to be shut tomorrow due to a water pipe problem and it quickly went in to a talk about the coming winter and my economics teachers husband works for Welsh Water and apparently Welsh Water is preparing their networks for problems as they've recieved warnings from the Met Office that this winter is possibly going to be severe and to prepare for -20c temperatures. Don't know if that means anything but there we go it came from my economics teachers mouth not the press and she's a respectable person she wouldn't make it up.

[knocker]

We we're talking about days off today in economics as my school is likely to be shut tomorrow due to a water pipe problem and it quickly went in to a talk about the coming winter and my economics teachers husband works for Welsh Water and apparently Welsh Water is preparing their networks for problems as they've recieved warnings from the Met Office that this winter is possibly going to be severe and to prepare for -20c temperatures. Don't know if that means anything but there we go it came from my economics teachers mouth not the press and she's a respectable person she wouldn't make it up.

I'm not for a moment suggesting that she is making it up but taken as read it doesn't actually tell us very much. One would need to know the precise terms of the contract between Welsh Water and the METO and quite importantly, the prescise wording of the so-called warnings. I say this because I have no reason to diasbelieve John Hirst's statement, " In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale". Ergo, without delving into semantics, the precise wording is important.

[Wales123098]

I'm not for a moment suggesting that she is making it up but taken as read it doesn't actually tell us very much. One would need to know the precise terms of the contract between Welsh Water and the METO and quite importantly, the prescise wording of the so-called warnings. I say this because I have no reason to diasbelieve John Hirst's statement, " In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale". Ergo, without delving into semantics, the precise wording is important.

Fair enough statement but Welsh Water have been testing and preparing their systems for a nasty winter after advice. So it sounds promising for a cold winter. Who knows what the metoffice is holding back from us. I'm sceptical that we'll have a cold winter but I do hope so. As long as its not too icy or snowing on December 5th when I have my driving test:)

Edited October 13, 2011 by Wales123098

[knocker]

. Who knows what the metoffice is holding back from us. I'm sceptical that we'll have a cold winter but I do hope so.

That's precisely what I mean. it's not a case of holding back from us but a private communcation under contract between two organisations. For example the office may offer an opinion based on the latest research that may contain the word 'possible', stressing the limitations involved, which is not the same as public pronouncement that is open to gross misinterpretation by the media. I could add by some others as well. I note you are sceptical which leads me to wonder what is included in the economics course.