Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[yukichon]

Personaly I can't stand grey and mild. But luckily I'm off for two weeks on Boxing Day to Colorado, where the skies will be blue, the air crisp and plenty of the white stuff....hooray

[wimblettben]

Although I do tend to jump to conclusions fairly quickly, I guess in a way that it is only Mid November and that really we aren't even in actual Winter yet. And having looked at charts from the past where for instance the 23rd of November 1906 I think the temperature was up to as high as 20C, and yet the Winter that followed had a very harsh cold spell. That really we certainly aren't in the worst case cenario at the moment. Some people over at the Model Discussion have allready written off the whole of Winter 2011-2012 from just model runs that only go up to the next few weeks!

Maybe when it is March 2012 and there has been no notable cold spells, then people could I guess have more of a right to be annoyed. We probably really just all need to be more patient as there is bound to be at least one cold spell this Winter, even if not as bad as last year perhaps?

Edited November 16, 2011 by wimblettben

[Tim Bland]

Lol just seen the sky news "ski snow report" not much to present! Alps are snowless and opening of resorts are being delayed with no snow forecast in next 5 days

[ZONE 51]

Not much discussion in here! not much sign of snow then! must say not having to have the heating on is good.

although its not feeling that mild out there, but its just not the cold that would enable snow to fall, any precipitation would be rain or drizzle, i think when they say mild its because the daytime temperatures are mild 9/10c but locally some areas are lower i have read! but evening temps would usually drop anyway if there are clear spells, the upper layers are to warm for any snowfall, even if it was colder at surface, the snow would melt through the cloud as it passes through those warmer layers, it would be rain.

Its a complex reason to why the block(high) is staying in the wrong place for us to get much colder air, hard to explain! but the easy way to look at it is that because of where its placed we draw up milder air flow(upper temps especially) ,there has been 0c in places at night in the colder cloud less breaks, but thats surface cold, we need layers of colder up there to be very cold and pulled down to the surface, we could say if the Atlantic moves in and the high moves placement then its more fun than what we have now, deep lows can bring colder air dragged down from them as the back edge clears, the power of a low in the right place this time of year would be a help for cold fans!

Edited November 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

Although I do tend to jump to conclusions fairly quickly, I guess in a way that it is only Mid November and that really we aren't even in actual Winter yet. And having looked at charts from the past where for instance the 23rd of November 1906 I think the temperature was up to as high as 20C, and yet the Winter that followed had a very harsh cold spell. That really we certainly aren't in the worst case cenario at the moment. Some people over at the Model Discussion have allready written off the whole of Winter 2011-2012 from just model runs that only go up to the next few weeks!

Maybe when it is March 2012 and there has been no notable cold spells, then people could I guess have more of a right to be annoyed. We probably really just all need to be more patient as there is bound to be at least one cold spell this Winter, even if not as bad as last year perhaps?

Even March can produce killer cold spells!

[weathe20]

In real terms, winter starts on 21st December, that right? So taking last winter into account, winter cold lasted 6 days IMBY. The thaw began the day after Boxing Day.....and I never saw a snow flake or hardly a frost after that. So much hype about last winter, lets be honest it lasted four weeks IMBY! Jan and Feb were aveage too mild. Maybe this year winter will start at the end of December and continue through to the middle of Feb with cold.....as it should be!

[Aaron]

Winter is defined as December, January, February to me.

The majority of winter was dull, but late November and December were enough, even if it doesn't fall into 'winter proper' in your opinion.

If we got a repeat of December 2010 in March 2012, would we still be moaning?

Edited November 17, 2011 by Aaron

[I remember Atlantic 252]

In real terms, winter starts on 21st December, that right? So taking last winter into account, winter cold lasted 6 days IMBY. The thaw began the day after Boxing Day.....and I never saw a snow flake or hardly a frost after that. So much hype about last winter, lets be honest it lasted four weeks IMBY! Jan and Feb were aveage too mild. Maybe this year winter will start at the end of December and continue through to the middle of Feb with cold.....as it should be!

no thats not right, starts on 1st Dec, 21st Dec is shortest day, generally in my area from mid jan, snow never lasts as long due to longer days higher and strenghthening sun, best period for snow is 15th Nov to 15th Jan

yes I would be moaning if we got dec 2010 in march, snow will thaw easily due to high sun so wouldnt actually be like last dec, but does depend on elevation

Edited November 17, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[P-M]

Another forecast that goes for a warm winter

http://translate.goo...er%2Findex.html

When trolling which you usually do please can you clarify what warm is? Quote from the peice you posted: The norm that we compare with the average temperature during the period 1961-1990. This period was slightly cooler than the last few decades have been.

Also to point out that if temps were 2C above average in January and February I wouldn't class that as warm now would you, and especially for the NE of England.

I am easy either way whether we have a milder or colder winter however you just persistantly cherry pick mild quotes and forecasts to p**ss people off and it's not on mate. Give an unbiased view which is what most do but your trolling and it's misleading the more inexperienced members like me and it is becoming tiresome now so can you give it a rest or change threads.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[johnholmes]

When trolling which you usually do please can you clarify what warm is? Quote from the peice you posted: The norm that we compare with the average temperature during the period 1961-1990. This period was slightly cooler than the last few decades have been.

Also to point out that if temps were 2C above average in January and February I wouldn't class that as warm now would you, and especially for the NE of England.

I am easy either way whether we have a milder or colder winter however you just persistantly cherry pick mild quotes and forecasts to p**ss people off and it's not on mate. Give an unbiased view which is what most do but your trolling and it's misleading the more inexperienced members like me and it is becoming tiresome now so can you give it a rest or change threads.

Just so all can see what Gavin was quoting for a warm winter-this is the chart

as you can see it was issued by the Norwegian Met O (I think)! and the comment by PM above is pretty valid. The averages used are 1961-90 so for most of the UK it is predicted to be around 1+C above that average-certainly not WARM by any stretch.

It would help if folk were actually a touch objective when they post Gavin please?

When trolling which you usually do please can you clarify what warm is? Quote from the peice you posted: The norm that we compare with the average temperature during the period 1961-1990. This period was slightly cooler than the last few decades have been.

Also to point out that if temps were 2C above average in January and February I wouldn't class that as warm now would you, and especially for the NE of England.

I am easy either way whether we have a milder or colder winter however you just persistantly cherry pick mild quotes and forecasts to p**ss people off and it's not on mate. Give an unbiased view which is what most do but your trolling and it's misleading the more inexperienced members like me and it is becoming tiresome now so can you give it a rest or change threads.

Just so all can see what Gavin was quoting for a warm winter-this is the chart

as you can see it was issued by the Norwegian Met O (I think)! and the comment by PM above is pretty valid. The averages used are 1961-90 so for most of the UK it is predicted to be around 1+C above that average-certainly not WARM by any stretch.

It would help if folk were actually a touch objective when they post Gavin please?

To put numbers on to that for my area it would give a winter mean temperature of 3.85C-again that is hardly warm is it?

sorry about the repeats, can't seem to alter it!

Edited November 17, 2011 by johnholmes

[Strider]

Also to point out that if temps were 2C above average in January and February I wouldn't class that as warm now would you, and especially for the NE of England.

I would. I think it's pretty clear he was talking about relative temperatures and not literal ... ...

[johnholmes]

relative temperatures and not literal

relative or literal the impression he posted of warm is wrong

the fact as I posted is that the Norwegain Met Office predicted the mean temperature for the whole winter would be just a touch above 1C above the 1961-1990 average.

I prefer factual commenting rather than hyping.

Edited November 17, 2011 by johnholmes

[clark3r]

really cant see any cold snap with snow happening before christmas like the last couple of years! my gut feeling is a 2 or 3 average cold snaps in the new year but not the snow like weve seen in the last 2 or 3 winters! hope im wrong!

[AWD]

If it means a colder and snowier January then I couldn't care less if the pattern we have stays up until Christmas, as long as we get somebcold and snow this winter, I couldn't care less when!

IMBY January is often the most snowiest and coldest month on average anyway, and with encouraging thoughts from GP and other more knowledgable members on here for a more favourable pattern in the new year, I certainly won't be one of many members who will probably be slitting wrists if this pattern continues for the rest of the year!

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not concerned by this mild weather and to be honest its not all that unusual what we are seeing, its just the sheer persistance of it that is probably getting onto people at the moment, no real variability in the weather. I have to admit, the cloudy days we had here recently has kept the temperature down and it has felt chilly at times but I prefer too feel the chill when its the middle of the day and sunny skies which represents proper cool/cold weather.

The only concern I do have is the SST's, its that reason I would take an Northerly over an Easterly at the moment.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I'm not concerned by this mild weather and to be honest its not all that unusual what we are seeing, its just the sheer persistance of it that is probably getting onto people at the moment, no real variability in the weather. I have to admit, the cloudy days we had here recently has kept the temperature down and it has felt chilly at times but I prefer too feel the chill when its the middle of the day and sunny skies which represents proper cool/cold weather.

The only concern I do have is the SST's, its that reason I would take an Northerly over an Easterly at the moment.

For what its worth I thought the SST's were on the warm side this time last year too, if anything a bit warmer than they are now. I believe it was because of the warm SST's that help produce all the snow last December. But if the air coming from the east/north east was not as cold as last December then yes snow for low lying areas would be very marginal indeed.

[Gord]

I'm not concerned by this mild weather and to be honest its not all that unusual what we are seeing, its just the sheer persistance of it that is probably getting onto people at the moment, no real variability in the weather. I have to admit, the cloudy days we had here recently has kept the temperature down and it has felt chilly at times but I prefer too feel the chill when its the middle of the day and sunny skies which represents proper cool/cold weather.

The only concern I do have is the SST's, its that reason I would take an Northerly over an Easterly at the moment.

Couldn't agree more. There's not been many Novembers that we can get unusual or exciting weather from anyway, (although 2009 and 2010 obviously do stand out for different reasons).

No need to panic about the winter ahead at all from this current pattern. Even the SST's would cool down rapidly with the right conditions. If we're still here halfway through January..then I might be worried...and even then it wouldn't all be over!

[mountain shadow]

The only concern I do have is the SST's, its that reason I would take an Northerly over an Easterly at the moment.

It depends of course on how cold the source of air is. If the air is around -8oC at 850hpa then I don't think the SST will modify it that much, indeed it is more likely to produce larger snowfalls.

Edited November 17, 2011 by mountain shadow

[Geordiesnow]

Unfortunately a few times last year even with uppers of -8 and an easterly wind it was very marginal and I remember when the PPN turned into sleet/wet snow and temps rose to around 2-3C with a dewpoint of around 0C. In general though we were fine but I think even last Autumn had a few more cool spells than this Autumn has.

A Northerly/NNE'ly would suit me fine on a selfish POV as the ground winds would veer from the land moreorless thus conditions become much less marginal. I always stated that I would have Northerlies for the first half of winter and Easterlies in the 2nd one, never seems to work that way though unfortunately.

[stewfox]

In real terms, winter starts on 21st December, that right? So taking last winter into account, winter cold lasted 6 days IMBY. The thaw began the day after Boxing Day.....and I never saw a snow flake or hardly a frost after that. So much hype about last winter, lets be honest it lasted four weeks IMBY! Jan and Feb were aveage too mild. Maybe this year winter will start at the end of December and continue through to the middle of Feb with cold.....as it should be!

Winter months are DEC, JAN, FEB

DEC was 2nd coldest in CET zone on record and very snowy for many. JAN just below average and Feb mild

Actually if you count the winter of 62/63 as just first 3 weeks of DEC that was mild and snowless same for 46/47 etc

Edited November 17, 2011 by stewfox

[P-M]

relative temperatures and not literal

relative or literal the impression he posted of warm is wrong

the fact as I posted is that the Norwegain Met Office predicted the mean temperature for the whole winter would be just a touch above 1C above the 1961-1990 average.

I prefer factual commenting rather than hyping.

Anyway MVH from TWO has posted this for interest although a bit too technical it's looks OK (if you are looking for colder signals) from a 1st glance? And before anyone says this is a cold ramp it's not, it's just science from his POV, knowledge and expertise...

I'm not sure whether this link has every done the rounds before and I am very cautious of it as it may well be directly based around the GFS Det, more analysis of the actual GFS Det would be required to see whether there is a correlation. But this is a link showing a broad scale pattern of where areas of blocking are likely to develop between days 10 and 14 across the globle. It isn't great to see and there is no link to increase the size of the image, but it is still worth a look.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa...ime_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif

Clearly if you follow those charts through we finally loose the block to the east through those sequence of charts and by the 1st of Dec have a distinct marked upper trough across the UK (cold zonality, of sorts!) but there is then ridging further W across the W Atlantic and in my opinion in an potentially interesting area.

The NAO looks as though it is likely to stay near neutral if not trending -ve, which given the expected synoptic scenario isn't surprising;

http://raleighwx.america...ls/12zNAOcomparison.html

However and interesting look what is forecast to happen to the PNA towards the end of the month;

http://raleighwx.america...ls/12zPNAcomparison.html

After a hugely -ve pattern with deep cold evident across the W of the USA with a distinct trough/ridge pattern across the UK the -ve PNA is forecast to become neutral if not trending positive. This to me, if correct, has to signal a change in synoptic pattern downstream across the W Atlantic and perhaps obviously even further downstream towards the UK region.

I've barked on about this in the winter thread in relation to the EC 32 day, but there is clearly a pattern change, of sorts, like by the end of the month onwards. This ridge to the E in my opinion really needs to go otherwise we'll be stuck with what we have had for weeks for even more weeks, not good!

What happens into early December and beyond is anyones guess, I have a feeling a colder, zonal pattern is likely, particularly seeing that this significantly -ve PNA pattern is forecast to finally be replaced by something different.

Just to throw this into the mix as well, not that I have much faith in just the GFS AO forecast, but how about this for a rise for teh AO teleconnection!

http://raleighwx.america...els/12zAOcomparison.html

Clearly the ensembles are far less 'severe' in relation to the threat of the AO becoming positive, but still we are on the verge of a pattern change, a welcomed pattern change and lets see where early December and beyond takes us...

Matt.

NB: I'll repost this in the winter thread as well, seeing that the EC 32 day will be updated overnight so i'll comment on that in there tomorrow...

Edited November 17, 2011 by Paul
Why ruin a reasoned post with a dig at another member?

[johnholmes]

An interesting post although I feel its a bit bare on solid links to what may happen.

As Matt has already posted comments about 2 totally different ECMWF long range outputs it shows just how difficult it is to make lrf outlooks.

I suspect, all respect to Matt, that the level headed look by Met O senior forecater is perhaps a more likely way of seeing how the outlook for the period into early/mid December is likely to be.

[karyo]

The pressure rise in the Atlantic and the trough progressing over the UK is quite good to see in the cpc link Matt posted above.

Also, the CFS has picked a signal for a more average December and January so that's a good development. Until recently, it was going for a well above average winter.

Karyo

[summer blizzard]

Winter months are DEC, JAN, FEB

DEC was 2nd coldest in CET zone on record and very snowy for many. JAN just below average and Feb mild

Actually if you count the winter of 62/63 as just first 3 weeks of DEC that was mild and snowless same for 46/47 etc

I cannot comment on the amount of snow but the first three weeks were still below the averages, the notion that they were mild before the major cold spells is extremely annoying (please check the CET means before making such a ludicrus comment).

Edited November 17, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Aaron]

The winter of 1947 didn't get properly going until February/March though, that's the whole reason it's famous for, not any other month, and heck, March isn't even winter.