Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[kold weather]

The thing is here in the south its not really been that stormy or wet, and parts of the Midlands really could do with a very wet pattern settling in for a while. Interesting contrast to further north which has had a very wet 2011!

[johnholmes]

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

your posts get dafter Eugene-hard to do but true

[ITSY]

Apparently, according to accuweather, the earth is currently at its closest possible point to the sun - over 3million miles closer than where we'll be come summer. Surely something to consider? Anyway, no end in sight to this awful weather - storms, bartletts, wind for the foreseeable

[Snowy Easterly]

Goodness me i don't think i have ever seen such a heavy torrential downpour in january before, if only that was snow i bet i would of got a very good covering in only 20 minutes. it is so typical and the wind was very strong too which would of meant severe blizzards

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think the wasp incident at the PDC darts champs tells us all we need to know about this current 'winter'!! To think wasps are still alive at the end of December is staggering and a reflection of how mild it has been since the onset of Autumn.

For me the first 3 weeks of Jan are looking dead for cold and unless we see some pretty dramtic changes in the next 4 or 5 days,well....

[Snowy Easterly]

I think the wasp incident at the PDC darts champs tells us all we need to know about this current 'winter'!! To think wasps are still alive at the end of December is staggering and a reflection of how mild it has been since the onset of Autumn.

For me the first 3 weeks of Jan are looking dead for cold and unless we see some pretty dramtic changes in the next 4 or 5 days,well....

Yes that is terrible, i bet the spiders and flys in my shed at my allotment are still alive not to mention how many weeds may have grown since i last went there about 3 weeks ago, i bet we get more frosts in april than in january this year which will kill some tender plants.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Nick L]

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

Oh Eugene, you do give a whole new dimension to the term WUM :')

Do you post such silly comments to get a reaction or hope that it somehow acts as reverse psychology with the weather? :lol:

[Weather-history]

Apparently, according to accuweather, the earth is currently at its closest possible point to the sun - over 3million miles closer than where we'll be come summer. Surely something to consider?

Nope only when it comes to solar eclipses, its harder to get a total solar eclipse around this time of the year when the sun and the moon are close to alignment in January because of that fact. The axial tilt of the Earth more than cancels any effect the Earth being closest to the Sun in early January.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Summer Sun]

Well after some of the posts writing off I see WeatherOnline are doing anything but

Valid from 14/01 to 10/02 2012

Colder late January

The forecast period from late-autumn into the beginning of this winter has been 'particularly challenging' both in terms of pinning down sufficient confidence in a sustainable pattern. There has been a good deal of cold Arctic air piling up the north, the 'deal' was attempting to see whether the pattern conditions would be favourable to 'trigger' this air to come south into the UK? This has been a winter period the like of which I have not seen for some time, that said, with some reservations I have had this 'feeling' that winter 201-12 would always be late. This is not the winter of the previous two years, when it arrives it will be notable, such will be the contrast to present conditions. I believe that it'll be the mid-late January period when this arrives?

*14/01/12*

After a brief taste of winter in the short term, conditions will revert to an Atlantic flow with generally mild conditions establishing across all areas of the UK. There'll be periods of wind and rain for all of us, gales in exposed areas to the west and north, some of this rain will be heavy at times with blustery showers following as brighter and cooler conditions pass through on a brisk west to north-westerly flow. There will be some drier and brighter intervals between the main rain bands, the more southern and south-eastern areas of Britain favoured to see this, sheltered from the mainly west to north-westerly flow. There is the hint that these more southern areas will become largely dry later as pressure begins to rise.

*15/01/12 - 20/01/12*

It is through this period that the patterns do suggest a rise in pressure, where this takes place is 'debatable' at the moment, also the threat that it may turn substantially colder. On current evidence a rise in pressure will take place, a suggestion that this'll be to the northwest or northwest a much colder outbreak of Arctic air moving south through all areas on a northerly to north-easterly flow. Much of the available precipitation turning wintry in nature, frost becoming widespread overnight as high pressure slips across the UK and winds fall light, a less cold flow across the north and northwest as a light south-westerly establishes here. As high pressure slips further east a light southerly to south-easterly flow becomes established through all areas, so mainly dry, broken cloud and chilly for most.

*21/01/12 - 25/01/12*

High pressure once again takes control as it drifts in the UK, the mainly dry settled and chilly conditions maintained through most areas. Some indication of a strengthening westerly flow over the northern half of Britain, so expect more in the way of cloud and rain here from time to time later, as high pressure drifts westward, the flow turns more north-westerly through all areas, allowing this more unsettled weather to extend south and east through the bulk of the UK.

*26/01/12 - 05/02/12*

This period sees the Atlantic once again take control with a brisk westerly establishing across all areas bringing wet and windy conditions. Turning mild for a time, drier across the south as pressure builds. High pressure begins to dominate to the west a colder north-westerly then northerly digs in, wintry showers extending south as temperatures begin to fall back.

Simon & Capn Bob

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20120102

[SP1986]

For me if this projected wave of stratospheric warming doesn't have an influence in removing the PV, weatherwise we are set up for an interesting situation. I know everyone wants snow and cold, but I can't help thinking the potential for two months without airfrost is quite fascinating. I can't say whether that's happened before or not, but it would be pretty unusual. A little jumping ahead of the gun though given we have 27 days of the month yet to go.

[A Winter's Tale]

I really am starting to feel convinced that this winter will end up being one of the mildest of all time and December is most likely to be our coldest month. The jet will probably slow down sometime in March, perhaps resulting in a cold spring but I feel convinced that the models are continuosly showing no promise what so ever and the stratosphere and PV have done nothing substantially promising and nothing really looks like happening this month. I'm afraid for most of you further south, prepare yourself for at least a two year wait for snow as many of you haven't seen snow since December 2010 and probably won't see any until at least the end of 2012. If you've had some snow, then expect that to be the last of the winter! Further north, expect some wet snow from time to time in NWlys but further east it may be a drief affair! In ths Scottish Highlands, expect some lying snow at times! Frost wise, well, don't expect much more this winter! I wouldn't be surprised if March 2012 will have more than the winter altoghether. Of course, there's still around 60 days of winter left (and a Spring) and there's still plenty of time left for those key developments, but my interpretation of the models and stratosphere is that it will continue to be in this frustrating mode for a while and by the time it change it will be too late! Still, patience will be needed for the winter and no one should give up hope yet.

Spring, well I think it will be sunny but chilly. Pretty frosty in the north and east. I doubt that places in central and southern areas will see much snow from showers, further north were cold air is likely to hang on for longer, I would expect quite a few days of wintry weather in Spring (including April and May). Maybe even one or two notable snowfall events from battleground snowfalls.

Still, my gut feeling isn't so optimistic but I suppose that it's all to play for!

[Peter H]

Well after some of the posts writing off I see WeatherOnline are doing anything but

The met office are also now forcasting something a bit colder at the end of January, though they're being somewhat more cautious than weatheronline

:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 1 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

I've always found weatheronline to be not bad in terms of accuracy though.

The met office are also now forcasting something a bit colder at the end of January, though they're being somewhat more cautious than weatheronline

:

I've always found weatheronline to be not bad in terms of accuracy though.

It could of course be a cloudy high, with days of anticyclonic gloom !

[Ruzzi]

I really am starting to feel convinced that this winter will end up being one of the mildest of all time and December is most likely to be our coldest month. The jet will probably slow down sometime in March, perhaps resulting in a cold spring but I feel convinced that the models are continuosly showing no promise what so ever and the stratosphere and PV have done nothing substantially promising and nothing really looks like happening this month. I'm afraid for most of you further south, prepare yourself for at least a two year wait for snow as many of you haven't seen snow since December 2010 and probably won't see any until at least the end of 2012. If you've had some snow, then expect that to be the last of the winter! Further north, expect some wet snow from time to time in NWlys but further east it may be a drief affair! In ths Scottish Highlands, expect some lying snow at times! Frost wise, well, don't expect much more this winter! I wouldn't be surprised if March 2012 will have more than the winter altoghether. Of course, there's still around 60 days of winter left (and a Spring) and there's still plenty of time left for those key developments, but my interpretation of the models and stratosphere is that it will continue to be in this frustrating mode for a while and by the time it change it will be too late! Still, patience will be needed for the winter and no one should give up hope yet.

Spring, well I think it will be sunny but chilly. Pretty frosty in the north and east. I doubt that places in central and southern areas will see much snow from showers, further north were cold air is likely to hang on for longer, I would expect quite a few days of wintry weather in Spring (including April and May). Maybe even one or two notable snowfall events from battleground snowfalls.

Still, my gut feeling isn't so optimistic but I suppose that it's all to play for!

I get the feeling that your trying to use reverse psychology. By not getting your hopes up, you will feel pleasantly surprised when a decent cold spell does arise (which in my opinion it will :winky: )

On another note, has Mark vogan or Simon Keeling published any recent videos of the recent developments??

[leicsnow]

Mark Vogan has

He says himself in the video that if the NAO/AO fail to flip to negative, we aren't looking likely to be seeing any sustained cold. But he belives it will.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Tellow

[Great Plum]

To be honest, don't they need to flip to negative for prolonged cold here anyway?

[ARB]

I have found it interesting reading the discussion in the forecasting thread, one observation I would like to make is that we are coming up to one of those pivitol times in winter when trends can and frequently do change. I remember reading Climate and the British scene by Gordon Manley in it he divided winter into 2 parts, early winter from mid November to Mid January and late winter from mid January onwards, essentially he noted it is extremely rare for long term patterns established in early winter to continue into late winter. This may have some relevance to the forecasting thread since there are tentative signs of changes in the 10 - 14 day range which would tie in nicely with his observations. Logically the most likely change would be to a more anti-cyclonic regime which may or may not deliver the cold that some people are seeking. Given how chaotic models can be at these timescales it probably is valid to look at long term patterns and bring these into the mix when attempting mid-range forecasting. Overall this winter to me feels more like an 80's winter than a 90's winter which would also fit into the idea of a mid winter season switch (Decembers were often quite mild in that decade).

[knocker]

UK forecast - Day 16 to 30

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Jan 2012 to Thursday 2 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Issued at: 0252 on Wed 4 Jan 2012

[Eugene]

with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog

. :o :o :o

[cyclonic happiness]

. :o :o :o

OMG frost and fog??? at last! *does a little dance* :yahoo:

[Michael Winston]

UK forecast - Day 16 to 30

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Jan 2012 to Thursday 2 Feb 2012:

Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

Issued at: 0252 on Wed 4 Jan 2012

Yes, it's interesting that the Meto didn't issue this until a couple of hours after the day 6 -15 forecast. It's as if they had things to ponder. Or am I just being a conspiracy theorist?

Regards,

Mike.

[john mac]

Could one of the mods please open a new london and south east thread as the doesnt appear to be one

many thanks

[reef]

Could one of the mods please open a new london and south east thread as the doesnt appear to be one

many thanks

The regional threads wont be divided up again until theres more happening as the discussion would be too diluted at the moment.

For your area theres the Southern England thread.

[Mark Neal.]

Its incredible that some people are writing off winter, i think after the last two winter, people are getting there hopes up too much and think that JANUARY 2010 AND DECEMBER 2010 will happen reguarly. I believe that we will get a cold spell, but it will be February, prob the start of the month.. Oh and if it doesnt arrive.. theres always March or April..

[Aaron]

Frost? Well, that indicates subzero temperatures so yes please

[January Snowstorm]

Its incredible that some people are writing off winter, i think after the last two winter, people are getting there hopes up too much and think that JANUARY 2010 AND DECEMBER 2010 will happen reguarly. I believe that we will get a cold spell, but it will be February, prob the start of the month.. Oh and if it doesnt arrive.. theres always March or April..

I think most folk accept that one cold spell is possible.

What people are annoyed with, and what you seem to agree with, is that this Winter wont see a sustained cold spell!

As for March / April, waste of time - what falls in an hour will melt in 5 minutes

What's also v disappointing is that after the last 3 years many inc Scientists were unsure if the jetstream had shifted and if colder Winters in the UK were going to become commonplace. We've learnt this Winter that this is not the case and that the jet has very much come home to roost!!

So in summary from a weather enthusiast pov much to be downheartened about!

Of course it's only the weather so no point being to depressed