Severe Weather - Rainfall Between 23-25th

[J10]

Unfortunately more heavy rain to come, if we look at NAE at the accumulated rainfall from 12 noon today to 12 noon Tuesday. Over 4 inches of rain in places in SE Ireland.

http://expertcharts....102512_2312.gif

With over an inch of rain for West Wales, and several inches for the far eastern tip of Wales and SW England.

NMM has a slightly different track with nearly 2 inches of rain for SE Ireland by midnight tonight and then the rain with 2 inches+ of rain expected in an arc from SW England, West Wales , fringing the East coast of Southern Ireland, into Norther Ireland and fringing NW Scotland. So generally the worst of the rain further east than the NAE expects above.

[kold weather]

Yep looking very wet, some places may even be exceptionally wet if the current pluse keeps its strength. Probably one of the wettest spells this year for Ireland from the looks of things.

[Evening thunder]

It looks like the worst of the rain will be west of here. When we get these fronts aligned N-S but moving up from the south giving very heavy rain they always seem to pass to the west of me, not sure why. But then the interesting stuff always seems to miss here.

In fact if the NAE chart posted above is correct we may only get 1-2mm here bringing this months total to a staggering 8-9mm!

[Chris K]

UK Met Office has upgraded their warnings a little for tomorrow. Amber alert now for approx 3/4 of Cornwall and the SW tip of Wales..

Issued at - 23 Oct 2011, 22:37

Valid from - 24 Oct 2011, 06:00

Valid to - 24 Oct 2011, 15:00

A period of especially heavy rain is expected over Cornwall on Monday morning and into the afternoon which could cause streams and rivers to burst their banks. The public should be prepared for disruption due to flooding.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice...r/uk/links.html

Edited October 23, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Coast]

Looks like the West will get something substantial today:

Flood alerts are in place in parts of the UK as heavy rain and strong winds were predicted to sweep in. Matt Dobson, senior forecaster with MeteoGroup, the Press Association's weather division, said there would be "persistent and heavy rain" particularly in Devon, Cornwall, Pembrokeshire and Northern Ireland.

The Environment Agency issued flood alerts for the North Sea coast from Bridlington to Barmston, for east-facing coastal locations in south Devon and a number of waterways including the Upper River Tamar, St Austell and Par rivers, and rivers in West Cornwall. Mr Dobson said: "There could be some local torrential bursts of rain, it's just very persistent rain. There could be over an inch of rain by the end of Monday.

"Devon, Cornwall, Pembrokeshire, and Northern Ireland are most at risk. There is the potential locally for some heavy bursts of rain. It does begin to move away on Monday night, but there could be some local flooding." The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for parts of England and Wales. It urged people in Northern Ireland, Wales, the West Midlands and south-west England to "be aware" of the possibility of heavy rainfall. Some areas of south-west England were told to "be prepared" for such weather, as a period of especially heavy rain is expected over Cornwall, which could cause rivers to burst their banks, the Met Office said.

The weather service's website said: "Periods of heavy rain, accompanied at times by strong winds, will affect parts of western Britain during Monday. The public should be aware that quantities of rain may be sufficient in a few places to disrupt travel and give rise to localised flooding. In Northern Ireland the heaviest rain is expected to arrive later in the day."

Many regions are likely to see 30-60mm of rain, and in some torrential downpours could bring more than 100mm, the Met Office said. The rainy weather is expected to move further north on Tuesday, and warnings are in place for people in southern Scotland to be aware of the conditions.

http://www.google.co...61319373508973A

[cartedj]

Torquay seafront closed due to flooding. I wonder if that was due to the winds and high tide.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews/devon/

[Coast]

Flood warnings for the South West:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Region&term=Southwest&Severity=3

[philglossop]

BBC Spotlight just reported Torquay Seafront closed due to very high tide and flooding (not helped by the wind direction and the rain). It's a foul morning here, driving rain and strong winds. The local forecast is now saying it'll be bad in the extreme of West Devon as well as Cornwall.

[Coast]

Wales in the firing line as well:

Heavy rain flood warning for south and west Wales

Environment Agency Wales has warned of possible flooding due to heavy rain.

Downpours are forecast for south and west Wales on Monday with warnings that Pembrokeshire could see up to 100mm (4 inches) of rain. The agency said some streams and rivers could burst their banks in localised downpours, adding that drainage systems may not be able to cope. BBC Wales weather presenter Behnaz Akhgar said: "We are in for quite a lot of rain this week."

"In fact there is an amber warning in force for heavy rain across Pembrokeshire today with up to 100mm of rain expected so there's a risk of localised flooding. "Elsewhere it'll be wet and windy with gusty winds along the coast.

Low-lying agricultural land

"Tonight it'll continue to be wet for a time especially across south west Wales with some heavy bursts continuing. "Overnight the winds will ease and the rain pushing back to the coastal area, with a better chance of seeing some brightness tomorrow." Environment Agency Wales said low-lying agricultural land and some roads may be affected by any heavy rain and is advising people in rural areas to take precautions. "The main concern is for drainage systems being unable to cope with the rainfall forecast by the Met Office which could cause some localised flooding and surface water on roads," a spokesperson said. "Officers will be monitoring river levels as they could respond if the rainfall continues and Flood Alerts and potentially Flood Warnings may be issued."

The Met Office warned that rain will slowly spread east in Wales and become heavy through Monday, with localised flooding possible. The rain is only likely to ease by late evening and it will be very windy all day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-15426428

[philglossop]

Flood warnings for the South West:

http://www.environme...west&Severity=3

Interesting Coast- the St Austell one is the same area that flooded last Autumn. The River Plym area is just as the river opens up towards Cattedown and with High Tide at 1622, I'm guessing that's why they are worried about Marsh Mills and Coypool. Luckily that's where most national companies have their superstores (Harveys/B&Q/Sainsburys)- but it's also where the main railway line goes through towards Plymouth Station.

Meavy and Clearbrook are on Dartmoor, Clearbrook should be fine as the river is at the bottom of the hill, but Meavy could be in trouble if the forecast does shift correctly more east.

Edited October 24, 2011 by philglossop

[Coast]

Can't find any webcams for St Austell area but here are a few dotted around Cornwall to monitor:

http://www.mounthave...video_image.htm

Some big waves down there today, might be good surfing!

The Lizard:

http://www.houselbay...-coastal-hotel/

St Ives:

http://www.tiger24.c...ebcams/st-ives/

Bude:

http://www.budewebcam.co.uk/surf.htm

This just caught my eye, going to be pretty rough and Scotland in line for something possibly too?

[philglossop]

18mm of rain since midnight here, and still raining heavily.

[Staffordshire]

18mm of rain since midnight here, and still raining heavily.

that's twice as much as i've had October! and by the look of what's of the coast you could get plastered!

[philglossop]

It certainly appears that it the worst at the moment is slipping into Mid Cornwall but given how heavy it is here on the so called "edge" I wonder what it's like around St Austell/Lostwithel/Liskeard at the moment.

The heaviest is due to move east as the day goes on which will bring us more into the firing line.

[Evening thunder]

This may be useful to keep an eye on some river levels later: http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/south/ (click on thumbnails to get to current images)

Currently the Lynher looks quite high, with the Camel and Tavy looking higher than normal.

I'm not sure how wet Cornwall has been recently, but knowing how my local river behaves it would probably take 100mm to flood it atm as it's been so dry recently (though that's probably in part due to sandy soil around here) There is bound to be some flooding in Cornwall though.

[philglossop]

Nice link, you can certainly see the Tavy is clearly rising and rather quickly between 10 and 11am

Edit- agree with the Lynher and Camel- how long till that field starts to get flooding on the Camel I wonder?

Edited October 24, 2011 by philglossop

[Robbie Garrett]

Seems to be some chance of Autumn Thunderstorms tomorrow, but most confined to the coastal areas, and south of the EC.

[gingercat]

Been raining here since 11am. Fields and road behind my home is already getting flooded and now pouring into my back garden yet again and flowing onto the road in front and building up at the bottom of the road. and we still have alot more rain to come this could be bad. My Grass is still water logged from flooding earlier in the week.

Jello I am in the same part of the world as you and boy this is crazy crazy weather. There was a foot of water outside our house last night when the rain was on. And apparently there's the same to come again today!

[Marcus_surfer]

It's stopped raining here have only had around 8mm so far

[Harry]

It's stopped raining here have only had around 8mm so far

Send some of it this way then....crystal clear blue skies yet again...I can't remember what wet window panes looks like it's been so dry!

Our rain will come overnight and then near the weekend, but we've had so little compared to west's so much the distribution will surely change soon....!?!?!?!?

[philglossop]

Just been out, and wished I hadn't. The road from Heybrook Bay to Plymstock is flooded, a sea king came over head from Wembury way (hope it's not serious and just an exercise), the windscreen wipers on full tilt for the outbound and inbound journey.

Edit- reports coming in of traffic problems across East Plymouth due to weather and flooding reported now on A386 Tavistock Road in Crownhill in the North part of the City.

[Coast]

Looks like more on its way, although I've not seen the severe weather warnings:

Large areas of the West Country are at risk of flooding on Monday afternoon and evening, with four inches of rain predicted to fall within the space of a few hours. Details are still scarce, but Cornwall, west Devon and west Wales are all at risk, with "potential for some significant flooding" according to the Environment Agency.

Severe weather warnings have been issued by the Met Office covering Northern Ireland, west Wales and the south-west of England, with meteorologists warning residents of those areas to "be prepared". If travelling, people may also face longer journey times. The Met Office said at 11:43 on Monday: "Heavy rain is currently affecting parts of Devon, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire. This will become torrential in places this afternoon and spread to Northern Ireland. Latest rainfall totals include 20mm in three hours at Cardinham, Cornwall. Since midnight 41mm has fallen at Whitechurch, Pembrokeshire with 33mm at Cardinham on Bodmin Moor, Cornwall."

As yet, it is hard to predict where and how bad any flooding is likely to be, but government advisers are concerned by the weather forecast and warnings from the Flood Forecasting Centre, a joint project between the Environment Agency and the Met Office.

http://www.guardian....s-england-wales

[lfcdude]

To be fair looking at the radar, its going to keep left trouser leging down all day, i for one would not like to be in a camping site near a river down there.

[mountain shadow]

Hammering down now in county down. Roads flooding already with another twelve hours or so of heavy stuff to come.

[Marcus_surfer]

If this was a snow event i would be bashing my head against a wall, the rain keeps brushing here and the heaviest stuff is to the south and far west.