Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[mountain shadow]

Chino,

Do you think this relative warming will propogate down into the troposphere? If so, what timescale would you put on any northerly blocking starting to show its head?

Thanks.

[chionomaniac]

Chino,

Do you think this relative warming will propogate down into the troposphere? If so, what timescale would you put on any northerly blocking starting to show its head?

Thanks.

I think that is the question we all want to know the answer to. My thoughts haven't changed over the last month. Firstly the tropospheric changes that have initiated the stratospheric changes will be enough to set the ball rolling without stratospheric feedback. The stratospheric feedback allows the tropospheric pendulum to swing greater each time and so on.

For me we will see a slow transition moving away from zonality towards a Scandi block over the next month. Funny enough the timeframes of the first stratospheric changes are almost bang on cue for what I expected prior to winter.

[Summer Sun]

I think that is the question we all want to know the answer to. My thoughts haven't changed over the last month. Firstly the tropospheric changes that have initiated the stratospheric changes will be enough to set the ball rolling without stratospheric feedback. The stratospheric feedback allows the tropospheric pendulum to swing greater each time and so on.

For me we will see a slow transition moving away from zonality towards a Scandi block over the next month. Funny enough the timeframes of the first stratospheric changes are almost bang on cue for what I expected prior to winter.

From what I can understand as we move into 2012 colder weather may start to take over?

[Gavin P]

B'astardi's really ramping about a SSW on Twitter today - Reakons it will pave the way to major cold across the US through mid and late January.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Gavin P

[Summer Sun]

B'astardi's really ramping about a SSW on Twitter today - Reakons it will pave the way to major cold across the US through mid and late January.

I wonder what affect this would have on the UK

Major stratwarm starting will lead to severe cold developing in much of N america for mid and late Jan. push into east/south, later

Edited December 15, 2011 by Gavin D

[chionomaniac]

I wonder what affect this would have on the UK

https://twitter.com/BigJoelaminate floori

The thing is the comparison picture that he and lorenzo showed earlier could be any minor or major warming from many years.

[Rollo]

B'astardi's really ramping about a SSW on Twitter today - Reakons it will pave the way to major cold across the US through mid and late January.

AsI understand it in itself an SSW guarantees nothing but increases the likelihood of cold weather further down the line.Chio is bang on target with his thoughts and has been said before patience is the keyword.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Could be a Feb to remember; something we haven't seen for a long time

[summer blizzard]

Nice video showing the breakdown of the Arctic Polar vortex from winter 2008 - 2009. Warming is very very sudden and from when it starts the PV is broken down or majorly disrputed in around 8 days.

Different winters see the effects of a SSW impact on differing time scales.

In winter 2009, the atmosphere responded almost immediately however in winter 2010 we saw that the delay was about a month.

It looks as if this year could be a quicker year.

[mountain shadow]

I would guess we will start to see the impact of this warming in the FI ensembles, perhaps some colder members showing a hand as the models play about with the warming. I'm assuming this warming will be picked up by the models of course.

The first thing I am looking for is a less severe vortex over north western Greenland which could allow the Azores high to ridge further north before linking with the Russian high. It will probably take a few bites ar the cherry though if previous years are anything to go by.

[chionomaniac]

I would guess we will start to see the impact of this warming in the FI ensembles, perhaps some colder members showing a hand as the models play about with the warming. I'm assuming this warming will be picked up by the models of course.

Not yet by a long way. What we will see in the models will be as a result of changing troposphere wavelengths.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not yet by a long way. What we will see in the models will be as a result of changing troposphere wavelengths.

Do you think the ECM 32 dayer will start to show some potential and thus be reflected in the 30 dayer?, maybe not tommorow but the one on the 23rd of december would take us past Jan 20th assuming the model picks up on it and the Met office buy into it of course.

Edited December 15, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

Do you think the ECM 32 dayer will start to show some potential and thus be reflected in the 30 dayer?, maybe not tommorow but the one on the 23rd of december would take us past Jan 20th assuming the model picks up on it and the Met office buy into it of course.

Has to be a possibility.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With the way Dec has panned out with a more favourable jet profile I will not be surprised to see a more rapid developing cold setup for Jan then depicted. I think this current MT/warming will have bigger effect as the jet wants to play ball.

BFTP

[kold weather]

I'm still thinking that we may well start to see the real changes developing throughout the first 10 days of Jan, though whether or not we tap into any cold during that timeframe is uncertain. I suspect the window for cold to really start to come down would be 10-20th Jan. Still got some time to wait yet but what we are seeing is a good sign. That probably is my best guess also for a proper SSW at the moment.

Funnily enough though I think it'll probably induce a 10-15 day spell starting near Xmas Day where we are 2-3C above average whilst the vortex shifts around and probably loses its current acceptable position for cold zonality. Models reflect this idea quite nicely. Eventually we'll see signals for height rises further north, but it may well come out of the blue at say 168-192hrs from the event, that what normally happens in such evolutions.

[phil nw.]

Good news for cold lovers,C.,the first real signs of vortex disruption,albeit at the top level.

We just have to wait now for some serious downwelling of the warmer air into the middle layers,ie 30hPa then hopefully we will start to see some signals in the models in the later timeframes.

However this may take some time yet but anything that helps to weaken the vortex is a step in the right direction to enable Arctic Heights to build down the line.

[chionomaniac]

No change with the ECM forecast this morning. The warm area is propagating down to the 10 hPa level.

First signs of the warming picked up on the graphical chart:

Still nowhere near a SSW in the reliable timeframe.

[Great Plum]

I guess that it's heading in the right direction though Chiono?

[chionomaniac]

I guess that it's heading in the right direction though Chiono?

Yes,

GFS suggesting (as expected) that this warming will get repelled, so that will leave us waiting towards the end of the year before the next possible event.

[loophole]

Total amateur here but find the topic interesting

Can the warming you're referring to be seen here as the red colours trying to push into the arctic from siberia at the end of the animation.

Also..this is caused by the high pressure currently over Russia?

[Mark Neal.]

Been told by many people that this thread is very interesting! Also that it regards talk of the pattern changing when Stratosphere Temperature Watch is concerned, Will keep looking out on this thread for updates!

[geoffw]

do the stratosphere forecasts update during the weekend?

[bluearmy]

do the stratosphere forecasts update during the weekend?

Yes they do Geoff. My untrained eye sees a continuation of yesterday's trends. I'm sure ed will be along later with a more in depth analysis.

[phil nw.]

Yes they do Geoff. My untrained eye sees a continuation of yesterday's trends. I'm sure ed will be along later with a more in depth analysis.

Yes looks like some wavebreaking going on Blue,

at the top levels and gradually downwelling by day10.

The graphs certainly suggest an upturn at the 1 and 5 hPa levels

maybe not enough to really hit the vortex lower down -but promising signs?

Like you i am still trying to make sense of it all but i am sure when Chiono.comes along he will put me in my place,lol.

[Relativistic]

Hello all, I'm new to this forum but read it every now and then. It's very interesting and there are some very knowledgable people on here.

I have a few questions to ask firstly though. I know a bit about SSW's, what effects they have, but would anyone be able to tell me what factors help to cause an SSW's. I've done some research and am I right in saying that the stronger the BDC, the better as more ozone gets into the strat and more of the suns radiation can be absorbed, causing it to heat up? Am I also right in saying that for an SSW we want a -QBO at low solar flux and a +QBO at high solar flux? I know that in increase in mountain torque events can lead to strat warming (?), but how exactly? Also, what is mean't by waves and how do they effect the strat?

If anyone could answer my questions I would really appreciate it, and if anyone wants to throw in any more info that would be awesome. This is a subject I find fascinating and I really want to learn more about. Thanks.