Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

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How can it be so hot at the edge of the stratosphere? 40C near the edge of space seems mad!

[Weather-history]

How can it be so hot at the edge of the stratosphere? 40C near the edge of space seems mad!

Isn't the ionosphere even hotter?

[mountain shadow]

How can it be so hot at the edge of the stratosphere? 40C near the edge of space seems mad!

Just think how hot the earth surface would be without the atmosphere,

[cyclonic happiness]

I love how the folk on this forum (me inclueded) swing backwards and forwards between threads like a pendulum lol!

In mild periods we all swing to here, then to the model output, then to the regionals when a cold spell hits, then it swings back again

strat, model, regional, model, strat, model, regional, model, strat, model, regional, model, strat, model, regional, model, strat......etc!

[Cloud 10]

Just think how hot the earth surface would be without the atmosphere,

Probably something like this..

Yet another way of looking at the stratospheric warming at the 10hpa level.

today>

xmas day>

[chris55]

Hi guys

A question from me on this Strat warming. I understand from reading this thread that although we have some good warming forecast for the 1hpa level of the Strat, this is not yet a SSW event, but may trigger one (is that right?) What do we need to see in the forecast charts that show a SSW event taking place. On the chart below we see the forecast warmings at 1hpa and 10hpa but not at the 30hpa level. I take it these warmings are not SSW events (or are they?) and if we do get the SSW will it show on the 30hpa red line?

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php#fig2

[Evening thunder]

Just think how hot the earth surface would be without the atmosphere,

Probably something like this..

I was under the impression that the earth's surface would be a lot colder without the atmosphere? But then maybe more solar radiation would heat it up more.. The greenhouse effect from various gases (mainly water vapour in fact) already keeps us 30C warmer than we would be without it.

I also thought Venus (shown in an image above) was so hot (hotter than Mercury) because of the huge amounts of CO2 and runaway greenhouse effect on that planet.

I'm pretty sure the moon is very cold without an atmosphere. Sorry if this is slightly off topic.

Some interesting developments in the Stratosphere, I can only watch and read the excellent input from a few members on here, as others have said thanks very much for the excellent updates!

Edited December 22, 2011 by Stormmad26

[chionomaniac]

Hi guys

A question from me on this Strat warming. I understand from reading this thread that although we have some good warming forecast for the 1hpa level of the Strat, this is not yet a SSW event, but may trigger one (is that right?) What do we need to see in the forecast charts that show a SSW event taking place. On the chart below we see the forecast warmings at 1hpa and 10hpa but not at the 30hpa level. I take it these warmings are not SSW events (or are they?) and if we do get the SSW will it show on the 30hpa red line?

http://wekuw.met.fu-...iag/ts.php#fig2

An SSW is defined as a reversal of mean zonal mean winds at 60N and 10 hPa (from westerly to easterly).

We need to see the warming and any reversal to propagate down to this level for this to occur.

This isn't forecast to occur yet but we are well on the way for reversal further up.

[ITSY]

Is the warming forecast still on this morning?

[chionomaniac]

Is the warming forecast still on this morning?

Yes and as Matt has pointed out the start of it is in the reliable timeframe. What we don't know is how strong its effects will be.

Edited December 22, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Crimson_Sprite]

I was under the impression that the earth's surface would be a lot colder without the atmosphere? But then maybe more solar radiation would heat it up more.. The greenhouse effect from various gases (mainly water vapour in fact) already keeps us 30C warmer than we would be without it.

I also thought Venus (shown in an image above) was so hot (hotter than Mercury) because of the huge amounts of CO2 and runaway greenhouse effect on that planet.

I'm pretty sure the moon is very cold without an atmosphere. Sorry if this is slightly off topic.

Some interesting developments in the Stratosphere, I can only watch and read the excellent input from a few members on here, as others have said thanks very much for the excellent updates!

The moon is very cold and VERY HOT! Daytime temps are over 200F!!! and nightime is -250F below zero! All of this is due to no atmosphere, so i reckon the same would be for the earth to some extent if we had no atmosphere

[chris55]

An SSW is defined as a reversal of mean zonal mean winds at 60N and 10 hPa (from westerly to easterly).

We need to see the warming and any reversal to propagate down to this level for this to occur.

This isn't forecast to occur yet but we are well on the way for reversal further up.

Thanks Chion' so a SSW is a reversal of the mean westerly Zonal winds, ie blocking occurring at high latitudes meaning the winds at the 60n go anticlockwise round the highs reversing the winds. And warming at the upper levels will hopefully trigger this.

[Heisenberg]

The moon is very cold and VERY HOT! Daytime temps are over 200F!!! and nightime is -250F below zero! All of this is due to no atmosphere, so i reckon the same would be for the earth to some extent if we had no atmosphere

As Russ Abbot once said

I love a forum with a little bit of atmosphere......

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

This thread is fairly new to me so my overall understanding is quite limited. Could any one let me know when the models would begin to show a pattern change if the SSW event happened. I know it hasn't happened yet and we don't know the duration but was just wondering when the models would show the PV over Greenland being displaced. Thanks in advance.

[mountain shadow]

This thread is fairly new to me so my overall understanding is quite limited. Could any one let me know when the models would begin to show a pattern change if the SSW event happened. I know it hasn't happened yet and we don't know the duration but was just wondering when the models would show the PV over Greenland being displaced. Thanks in advance.

I think the answer is "how long is a piece of string" as their are so many variables. Personally I'm thinking we might see some colder model output from Boxing day.

[chionomaniac]

I am still waiting for the GFS to show the same amount of warming that the ECM is showing, so perhaps a little bit of caution is needed is here. I think that the longer range GFS forecasts have consistently shown another warming coming along behind.

We have a 10C difference between the GFS and ECM for 31/12 at 12Z at 1hPa.

[wxmatt]

The zonal wind chart (top) and EP flux (bottom) show significant first-in-the-season changes. From my understanding of EP Flux, having that turn northward (if this model is correct of course) will increase the probability of strato-to-trop propagation.

[chionomaniac]

The zonal wind chart (top) and EP flux (bottom) show significant first-in-the-season changes. From my understanding of EP Flux, having that turn northward (if this model is correct of course) will increase the probability of strato-to-trop propagation.

Agreed, Matt, let's hope the ECM is correct.

[phil nw.]

ECM continue with the warming forecasts as shown by Chiono and Matt in earlier posts and here is the difference that this is forecasted to make to the Zonal winds

now at T12hrs.

forecast T216

The winds reverse at the top(blue) a sign of the vortex being weakened-notice too how the positive winds(orange)have decreased in velocity along the top levels.

We have still some way to go before anything shows on the models as these changes to the Strato. are only forecasts for some days ahead but the trend for warming is good with evidence that it`s forecasted to propogate down towards the centre of the Vortex at 10hPa within T240.

Just to emphasise these are good signs but still only forecasts and we still wait to see if they work lower into the Strato.to have a real effect on the Trophospheric outputs.

[geoffw]

which is more reliable - the ECM or the GFS stratospheric forecast?

[Winter Monsoon]

The zonal wind chart (top) and EP flux (bottom) show significant first-in-the-season changes. From my understanding of EP Flux, having that turn northward (if this model is correct of course) will increase the probability of strato-to-trop propagation.

Am i right in saying that the top chart zonal winds 1hpa, once the graph goes negative that means winds have reversed yes?

[phil nw.]

Am i right in saying that the top chart zonal winds 1hpa, once the graph goes negative that means winds have reversed yes?

Yes WM.If you look above at my post and the image for the Zonal winds forecast at T216hrs--that graph you posted correlates quite well.

You can see the edge of the blue(neg.)winds just edging around 60N-ie 0m/s.

I hope that helps.

which is more reliable - the ECM or the GFS stratospheric forecast?

Tbh Geoff i don`t know.

Whether there are any stats for this like we have on the model performances ,maybe someone else can say.

We would hope both models would be usefull for basic data obs.but this is a fairly new branch of meteorology to me so maybe Chiono.can give you an answer.

Edited December 22, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[chionomaniac]

which is more reliable - the ECM or the GFS stratospheric forecast?

Good question Geoff. I have never actually studied both for verification. They are generally both singing from the same hymn sheet currently. I have seen the ECM jump around with other warming events - but this is due to the nature of the presentation of information.

[Bobby]

GFS shows 12z shows 2 warmings, second bigger than the first

http://176.31.229.22...nh-10-96.png?12

http://176.31.229.22...h-10-336.png?12

Is that looking good?

Edited December 22, 2011 by Barb-

[Glacier Point]

Yes, particularly as the ozone associated with this warming will not be going any where fast and we should be looking at concentrations really piling up on over Alaska and the Canadian Arctic in January with a lagged influence for warming of the layers across the tropopause in that locale. Broadly, a straight correlation between ozone concentration and temperature which should in time mangle the jet over the States setting up blocking features in the North Atlantic.

The sustained warmings forecast are IMO a good portent for a major mid winter warming in January.