Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[MattH]

This was the link, found it finally...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/index.primjo.html

An interesting link that and it would seem that some of the ECM info is available on that site which isn't available elsewhere apart from within their restricted area in terms of MJO info...

Given all the variable recently discussed, certainly looks as though we are stuck in this more zonal/Atlantic pattern for some time...

M.

[wolvesfan]

Basically we are looking at a completely different start to the stratospheric winter when compared to the previous two winters. This winter we are seeing a rapid cooling of the stratosphere which promotes a strong vortex and a positive AO. The previous two winters we have seen a warmer start with local Rossby wave breaking into the stratosphere which promoted a disturbed polar vortex and negative AO.

Hello chio,

would you have expected the srat to be cooler this year than the previous two,taking an increase in the solar flux levels we are seeing at the moment into acount or does this only have a minor affect when coupled with the QBO,thanks for your time.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just one quick question, which you may be able to answer, or find!...I spotted somewhere in one of these threads a link to some of the ECM data including the MJO forecast which was from the NCEP site I think, however I can't find the damn post now for some reason. I was interested to know whether this was the same ECM data which I have access through work, including the EC 32 day information etc.

I look forward to joining in!...

Cheers, Matt.

Are you lucky enough to see the ECM 32 dayer Matt?

I am sure you would be more than welcome in the MOD thread with information such as that!

You may want to only report the good stuff though, like 1987 Easterlies!

[chionomaniac]

Hello chio,

would you have expected the srat to be cooler this year than the previous two,taking an increase in the solar flux levels we are seeing at the moment into acount or does this only have a minor affect when coupled with the QBO,thanks for your time.

I think that it is no surprise that the stratosphere has started cooler this winter due a number of factors. The low ozone levels, westerly QBO remnants, uncertainty of strength of BDC (see first post) are just 3 of these.

[Glacier Point]

The evolution of this east QBO phase allied to a relativley high solar flux / sunspot count are big factors here. The door is being left firmly ajar for upper level westerlies to become engrained in the middle and high latitudes, currently averaging 25m/s and forecast to reach 30m/s - 40m/s at 30hPa in the coming 10 days. Polar stratospheric ozone levels are now looking very low realtive to anything in the last 10 years at the same point in time.

The system of cooling, ozone destruction / inhibition, westerly wind increase is driving itself as much as anything else and should ensure that we go into early December with stratospheric temperatures well below average. Eventually, the system will seek to redress the imbalance, particularly as the stratospheric tropics will / and are likley to be also well below average.

I would be looking for signs of an increase in temps / ozone mid December onwards leading up to a SSW in January. One thing that looks more positve for cold is that there has yet to be an anomalous zonal wind increase within the lower stratosphere, so any warming event will have less vertical shear to oppose it.

[wolvesfan]

I think that it is no surprise that the stratosphere has started cooler this winter due a number of factors. The low ozone levels, westerly QBO remnants, uncertainty of strength of BDC (see first post) are just 3 of these.

Hi chiono,

Thank you for your answer,as is often the case though your answer has led to another question.You state that the ozone levels are low do we see this anually at the start of winter or is there another reason?,thanks again.

Hi chiono,

Thank you for your answer,as is often the case though your answer has led to another question.You state that the ozone levels are low do we see this anually at the start of winter or is there another reason?,thanks again.

G,P's post above answers this question,thanks

[wolvesfan]

I think that it is no surprise that the stratosphere has started cooler this winter due a number of factors. The low ozone levels, westerly QBO remnants, uncertainty of strength of BDC (see first post) are just 3 of these.

Hello Chiono,

I've gathered from the post from G,P that we are in a -QBO at the moment,there are also remnants of a +QBO.How long do the phases last?,would a +QBO be more conjusive to a SSW?,thanks again.

[chionomaniac]

Hello Chiono,

I've gathered from the post from G,P that we are in a -QBO at the moment,there are also remnants of a +QBO.How long do the phases last?,would a +QBO be more conjusive to a SSW?,thanks again.

The information is in the first post.

[summer blizzard]

Any update on the potential wave breaking event?

[chionomaniac]

Any update on the potential wave breaking event?

No change yet. I think that we are looking at an increase in wave 2 activity that will temporarily affect the upper strat.

This happens regularly throughout the winter as last year shows.

But occasionally we can have a big event such as 2009 that will lead to a pronounced affect.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_ALL_NH_2009.gif

That is what I am keeping a look out for.

[MattH]

Are you lucky enough to see the ECM 32 dayer Matt?

I am sure you would be more than welcome in the MOD thread with information such as that!

You may want to only report the good stuff though, like 1987 Easterlies!

Yeah I have access to the full ECM suite from the 32 day, seasonal forecast and the usual deterministic and ensembles etc...

I'll take a look when I can.

Cheers, Matt

[chionomaniac]

Yeah I have access to the full ECM suite from the 32 day, seasonal forecast and the usual deterministic and ensembles etc...

I'll take a look when I can.

Cheers, Matt

Out of interest Matt, are there extended 32 day stratospheric forecasts?

Cheers

Ed

[MattH]

Out of interest Matt, are there extended 32 day stratospheric forecasts?

Cheers

Ed

No there isn't. The more 'advanced' pieces of data are a 500hPa anomal outlook and then a direct look at the MJO, which does also advance on to Hovmoller diagrams of veloticity at 200hPa, olr and zonal wind at 850hPa.

To a certain extent in terms of stratospheric data there's probably more information actually free on the net to be honest in relation to some of those weblinks you have posted in the past. All that aside, there's still an awesome amount of data which isn't available for free.

M.

[chionomaniac]

No there isn't. The more 'advanced' pieces of data are a 500hPa anomal outlook and then a direct look at the MJO, which does also advance on to Hovmoller diagrams of veloticity at 200hPa, olr and zonal wind at 850hPa.

To a certain extent in terms of stratospheric data there's probably more information actually free on the net to be honest in relation to some of those weblinks you have posted in the past. All that aside, there's still an awesome amount of data which isn't available for free.

M.

I didn't think that there would be. My main gripe about the strat charts is that the ECM's are a day delayed.

Regarding the advanced MJO data, I suspect that there are very few people who don't have access to it professionally that are able to make sense of it all!

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The evolution of this east QBO phase allied to a relativley high solar flux / sunspot count are big factors here. The door is being left firmly ajar for upper level westerlies to become engrained in the middle and high latitudes, currently averaging 25m/s and forecast to reach 30m/s - 40m/s at 30hPa in the coming 10 days. Polar stratospheric ozone levels are now looking very low realtive to anything in the last 10 years at the same point in time.

The system of cooling, ozone destruction / inhibition, westerly wind increase is driving itself as much as anything else and should ensure that we go into early December with stratospheric temperatures well below average. Eventually, the system will seek to redress the imbalance, particularly as the stratospheric tropics will / and are likley to be also well below average.

I would be looking for signs of an increase in temps / ozone mid December onwards leading up to a SSW in January. One thing that looks more positve for cold is that there has yet to be an anomalous zonal wind increase within the lower stratosphere, so any warming event will have less vertical shear to oppose it.

Stew

I've been reading your posts with interest and also enjoyed your pre-lim thoughts. So re above, are you suggesting that if a SSW event occurs in Jan the response would be relatively quicker due to lack of opposition? Looking forward to your LRF and I think you are going to call a cold Jan.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.gif

I notice at day 10 that the ECWMF has a surge of warm air into the Arctic, is this showing on stratospheric charts.

[karyo]

^{The stratosphere is really cold for the time of the year! http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html}

^{However, the mean zonal winds are forecast to decrease slightly in a few days time. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php}

^{Too small a decrease but worth monitorning in the absence of any other good news...}

^Karyo

[MattH]

These websites have been highlighted before,but just to re-cap from what I have seen the following are probably the best data sources in terms of analysing conditions of the stratosphere;

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html#monit_nh

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng

Some of the information on here not even i've come across to be honest, like the E-P Flux for example, whilst some of the other information is straightforward.

If these two sites are constantly used and sourced with some background information as to what some of the charts are showing then this should hopefully help peoples understanding more of what the charts are showing.

In summary from what i've had a look through is that the cold temps across the pole in general aren't going anywhere time soon. Despite that slight decrease in zonal winds, the overal temperatures are likely to remain below averages into early Dec. It's going to take time and patience by the looks to get out this current 'setup' before we are at a greater risk of surface conditions changing to anything other than a general zonal pattern.

Cheers, Matt.

[phil nw.]

I am not sure if i am reading this correctly

http://wekuw.met.fu-...mwfzm_u_f96.gif

Forecast of a reversal of Zonal winds at the lower levels of the Vortex.

Is this good for weakening the vortex in time--or does this have to travel much higher to have an effect?

Edited November 24, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[summer blizzard]

I am not sure if i am reading this correctly

http://wekuw.met.fu-...mwfzm_u_f96.gif

Forecast of a reversal of Zonal winds at the lower levels of the Vortex.

Is this godd for weakening the vortex in time--or does this have to travel much higher to have an effect?

I would imagine that it is a positive however to be sustained it would have to penetrate the upper atmosphere.

[chionomaniac]

I am not sure if i am reading this correctly

http://wekuw.met.fu-...mwfzm_u_f96.gif

Forecast of a reversal of Zonal winds at the lower levels of the Vortex.

Is this good for weakening the vortex in time--or does this have to travel much higher to have an effect?

One can have temporary tropospheric negative mean zonal winds around the north pole Phil, as part of the polar vortex reorganises itself and crosses the north pole. What we like to see is sustained negative mean zonal winds slightly further south extending into the stratosphere.

[phil nw.]

I would imagine that it is a positive however to be sustained it would have to penetrate the upper atmosphere.

That`s what thought SB but there`s no sign of that yet,however conversley the strong zonal winds higher up are not yet forecast to desend either.

One can have temporary tropospheric negative mean zonal winds around the north pole Phil, as part of the polar vortex reorganises itself and crosses the north pole. What we like to see is sustained negative mean zonal winds slightly further south extending into the stratosphere.

Thanks Chiono--just noticed your post.

Yes i see now.

[summer blizzard]

That`s what thought SB but there`s no sign of that yet,however conversley the strong zonal winds higher up are not yet forecast to desend either.

Thanks Chiono--just noticed your post.

Yes i see now.

I think that it is a good sign even if the effect will be limited for now.

One of the major reasons for the current +AO is the remmenants of the +QBO at 50mb, so any easterlies will do us good in the long run.

[sebastiaan1973]

Is it not to soon to look for any signs? As the SSW would come in january? Right now it's 25th of november.

[chionomaniac]

No major change in the current stratospheric output currently with no major suggestion that any tropospheric blocking will occur soon.

The GFS and ECM 100 hPa charts do suggest troughing towards Iberia, but no disruption of the upper flow occurs to create this pattern, hence the talk of transient NW airstreams but no major sustained cold dropping to lower latitudes.

One thing though - these are the best ozone forecasts for a while.

This is a pattern that we would like to see continuing. If one looks back to the first ozone chart in this thread there is a big difference so we are heading in the right direction.

The wave number 2 that is heading in to the stratosphere spotted earlier this week does not look strong enough to create any major affects.