Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[sebastiaan1973]

The difference in ozon levels

[chionomaniac]

The difference in ozon levels

A better comparison would be to this one from Nov 1st

[lorenzo]

Chiono - are there any recent winters where the PV has been in such healthy vigour so to speak.

Also wondering if there is a link to another SSW site as that Colombia one at the start of the thread seems to be toast.

Another place I found whilst looking around was Uni Of Soton where they appear to collate Satellite Data but no public access.

Was interested to see what events took place J/F in the MJO Years analog by GP from Winter forecast.

2009

2006

2004

2002

1994

1993

1986

1984

[chionomaniac]

Chiono - are there any recent winters where the PV has been in such healthy vigour so to speak.

Also wondering if there is a link to another SSW site as that Colombia one at the start of the thread seems to be toast.

Another place I found whilst looking around was Uni Of Soton where they appear to collate Satellite Data but no public access.

Was interested to see what events took place J/F in the MJO Years analog by GP from Winter forecast.

2009

2006

2004

2002

1994

1993

1986

1984

The SSW website should be up and running after Christmas. It is being revamped and had some server issues.

Other data on NP temps here:

http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html

1986 a good analog?

Edited November 27, 2011 by chionomaniac

[EML Network]

Thought I would mention this, I wonder if this will effect the stratospheric Temperature over the North Pole ??

A solar radiation storm is in progress around Earth. At the moment, the storm is classified as minor, which means it has little effect on our planet other than to disturb HF radio transmissions at high latitudes. Bigger effects, however, may be in the offing. The same explosion on Nov. 26th that caused the radiation storm also hurled a CME into space at about 930 km/s (2 million mph). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will reach Earth on Nov. 28th at 17:21 UT (+/- 7 hours).

The impact of the cloud could trigger a geomagnetic storm. Indeed, NOAA forecasters estimate a 58% chance of severe storming around the poles when the CME arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall on Monday.

I'm not really an expert on this, but If there is a geomagnetic storm over the poles, I think I'm right in saying that more solar particles enter the atmosphere, and hence I think it stands to reason that there could be a SSW ???

Just a thought, would be keen to know what peoples thoughts are

[Kentish Kiwi]

Worryingly it looks as though the Stratosphere continues to cool, and rather rapidly too. Surely we must be close to record cold levels by now? We truly will be in a desperate state if it continues to cool at the same rate through the end of November and into the first five or so days of December (I estimate it would be below -85 by that time at this rate). I wonder how much colder the stratosphere could physically become...

A question for Chiono or Mr Data - are there any 'cold' winters in the records that featured a very cold stratosphere through the majority of November and into December?

The only positive that could possibly be taken from this is what seemed like a throw away comment from GP about us wanting the vortex to spin faster now that it is already in a very well organised state, as this would apparently aid any SSW that happened to eventuate? (Or something very vaguely along those lines...)

Edited November 27, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[summer blizzard]

We are indeed pretty much at record levels for the time of year.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The SSW website should be up and running after Christmas. It is being revamped and had some server issues.

Other data on NP temps here:

http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html

1986 a good analog?

Is 84/85 not in that list instead of 83/84? That winter looks to me to be the closest analogue to this one.

Worryingly it looks as though the Stratosphere continues to cool, and rather rapidly too. Surely we must be close to record cold levels by now? We truly will be in a desperate state if it continues to cool at the same rate through the end of November and into the first five or so days of December (I estimate it would be below -85 by that time at this rate). I wonder how much colder the stratosphere could physically become...

A question for Chiono or Mr Data - are there any 'cold' winters in the records that featured a very cold stratosphere through the majority of November and into December?

The only positive that could possibly be taken from this is what seemed like a throw away comment from GP about us wanting the vortex to spin faster now that it is already in a very well organised state, as this would apparently aid any SSW that happened to eventuate? (Or something very vaguely along those lines...)

February '91? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/archive/30mb9065_1991.gif

'85/'86 had a pretty cold stratosphere too through December http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/archive/30mb9065_1986.gif

[lorenzo]

This year is looking like record breaking for Stratospheric temps, I found that chart earlier today when looking through a bookmarked link from last year...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056056522

think the links remained live to this years charts.

If that grey line mean is anything to go by then late january / all feb > then march is a thing to consider.

86 is worth a look and the other I found was 90 but this did not fit with any patterns discussed here January just looked similar. ( brief memory of fleeting through charts)

I need help with the zonal wind charts though on some sites they sit horizontal and others vertical from 0 degrees if that makes sense. Similar to what JH posted on the 500 mb charts, the tilt adds a level of confusion we could be well doing without.

Thankfully FU Berlin sees rightfully Europe and not the US as being centre of the Universe.

Still wondering about that anomaly I found in the tech thread...

[Andy_]

Just a quick question or two from someone who knows very little about our stratosphere,

What causes the stratosphere to cool (apart from general seasonal variability)? and why is it so cold at present? Thanks

[Kentish Kiwi]

February '91? http://www.cpc.ncep....mb9065_1991.gif

'85/'86 had a pretty cold stratosphere too through December http://www.cpc.ncep....mb9065_1986.gif

Cheers for the reply LS, that '85/'86 record is pretty much exactly what I was hoping to see. Illustrates just how rapidly the stratosphere can warm after an extended and deep period of 'negativity' and just how quickly the troposphere reacts to this warming. It's also encouraging given the amount of comparisons people have drawn between 1985/86 and the current state of the atmosphere, background signals and analogues such as ENSO.

I do fear though that for every example someone can provide of a very cold stratosphere early in the winter leading to a 'cold winter' (although the cold is quite understandably concentrated in the final half/third of the season), there are ten more where the stratosphere has failed to recover sufficiently and the PV has remained in an organised and powerful state throughout.

It would seem reasonable to say that from the two above examples it would be worrying if the stratosphere doesn't recover and warm to some extent by or around the New Year period... However, I suppose on both occasions the SSW's in question rocketed the temperature upwards from an already very negative state and the temperatures preceding an event such as those are irrelevant?

Edited November 27, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[Kentish Kiwi]

It would seem reasonable to say that from the two above examples it would be worrying if the stratosphere doesn't recover and warm to some extent by or around the New Year period... However, I suppose on both occasions the SSW's in question rocketed the temperature upwards from an already very negative state and the temperatures preceding an event such as those are irrelevant?

Actually on a second viewing it looks as though the important 1985/86 warming that actually caused the cold February was from an already average state. And the stratosphere throughout 1990/91 was already very erratic, not a sustained deep period of below-average temperatures, and had undergone a rather substantial warming during January. Still, it's all academic anyway and the 1985/86 analogue (I believe that's the one a few members have mentioned in terms of ENSO?) looks to have decent support from a range of factors.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[lorenzo]

1986

Dec

5th http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119861205.gif

15th http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119861215.gif

25th http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119861225.gif

Jan

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870105.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870110.gif

[georgiedre]

if the stratosphere was to warm up in the next week what implications would it have on our weather and how long would we have to wait to see these changes on the models?

[lorenzo]

http://cawcr.gov.au/...d.1986.12.1.gif

http://cawcr.gov.au/...d.1985.12.1.gif

85-86 is a good analogue, I think it is going to take some MJO event to disrupt that vortex.

Is this a once in a century vortex pattern a year on from the once in a century November heights...?

SSTs are an angle I wish I knew more about to factor into proceedings as with my limited knowledge I think some kind of pattern created a change in the Thermocline last year in the Atlantic around Greenland that is not evident this year... yet..

WhT is going on with my fonts>

Edited November 28, 2011 by lorenzo

[summer blizzard]

Just a quick question or two from someone who knows very little about our stratosphere,

What causes the stratosphere to cool (apart from general seasonal variability)? and why is it so cold at present? Thanks

I believe that the primary reason for the current cooler than average stratosphere is the residual +QBO wave at 50mb which has only this month began to dissipate. This is causing upper level convergence which is promoting the development of a +AO.

[Kentish Kiwi]

if the stratosphere was to warm up in the next week what implications would it have on our weather and how long would we have to wait to see these changes on the models?

It depends how much it was to warm and how the warming impacted the different layers of the stratosphere and troposphere, if it was a split or displacement warming etc etc... An SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) can having remarkably rapid impacts on the troposphere, the lowest part that affects our weather directly, while other warmings can have no impact whatsoever. There's a lot of variation in it.

In general though, from what I've read from Chiono, there is usually a lag time of around a month between warming and impact, give or take a week or so.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[Kentish Kiwi]

1986

Dec

5th http://www.wetterzen...00119861205.gif

15th http://www.wetterzen...00119861215.gif

25th http://www.wetterzen...00119861225.gif

Jan

http://www.wetterzen...00119870105.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119870110.gif

The December 5th frame seems relatable to our current situation, however the 15th and the 25th both feature a split or at least disrupted vortex and northerly blocking, something that would be unlikely this year until the stratosphere warms a reasonable amount. I had completely forgotten the famous Jan 1987 event. Got a bit of a shock looking through the archive past the 10th again.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[EML Network]

The only way is UP !!!...Baby..

[cyclonic happiness]

So if the stratosphere is cold beyonds records, then is it safe to say we don't really know what affect it will have on the weather, or does it just help to spin the polar vortex ever faster and bigger?

My understanding is that, a warm stratosphere means that we get good height rises over the polar regions, which pushes parts of the polar vortex outwards and over the outer regions of the pole.

This throws the jet stream into to turmoil which buckles and has more chance to throw up northern and eastern blocking near the UK, which in turn, helps us get more northeasterlies/easterlies (and ..........I don't really know how it works yet lol!)

And that a cold stratosphere is where the polar vortex is kept close to the pole and we get battered by low pressure trains form a flat jet profile and the cold is kept locked up north by a necklace of jetsteam?

So by my meager understanding and exceptionally cold stratosphere would wind up the polar vortex and push the active jetstream south, but linier and not buckled.

So the uk would end up in a very cold, stormy zonality with frequent snows and blizzards (hopes:P)?

[chionomaniac]

It depends how much it was to warm and how the warming impacted the different layers of the stratosphere and troposphere, if it was a split or displacement warming etc etc... An SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) can having remarkably rapid impacts on the troposphere, the lowest part that affects our weather directly, while other warmings can have no impact whatsoever. There's a lot of variation in it.

In general though, from what I've read from Chiono, there is usually a lag time of around a month between warming and impact, give or take a week or so.

I think that this depends on the type of warming experienced. Remember the split SSW in Feb 2009. The split was felt in the troposphere almost immediately - like a hot knife through butter from the top of the stratosphere to the surface, but then after a weaker tropospheric vortex reformed in the wrong position to deliver extensive cold.

So if the stratosphere is cold beyonds records, then is it safe to say we don't really know what affect it will have on the weather, or does it just help to spin the polar vortex ever faster and bigger?

My understanding is that, a warm stratosphere means that we get good height rises over the polar regions, which pushes parts of the polar vortex outwards and over the outer regions of the pole.

This throws the jet stream into to turmoil which buckles and has more chance to throw up northern and eastern blocking near the UK, which in turn, helps us get more northeasterlies/easterlies (and ..........I don't really know how it works yet lol!)

And that a cold stratosphere is where the polar vortex is kept close to the pole and we get battered by low pressure trains form a flat jet profile and the cold is kept locked up north by a necklace of jetsteam?

So by my meager understanding and exceptionally cold stratosphere would wind up the polar vortex and push the active jetstream south, but linier and not buckled.

So the uk would end up in a very cold, stormy zonality with frequent snows and blizzards (hopes:P)?

An exceptionally cold stratosphere would not have the effect of pushing the jet stream south - quite the reverse in fact. The jet stream would be stronger and further north due to a stronger more compact polar vortex. The flow would be more zonal and amplifications can occur but no major meridional or reverse flows. The current modelling shows this very well.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Was there a SSW in Dec 1986?

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Was there a SSW in Dec 1986?

BFTP

Jan 87. That is my favoured analog with QBO, sunspots, cold preceding strat, but not la nina!

[chionomaniac]

Clear evidence that the increased mean zonal mean wind anomalies are filtering down to the troposphere now. It looks like the first weaker pulse has probably hit in the last week with another increase set for the first few days of December.

It does look like these conditions could continue for a while.

[kold weather]

I suspect you can't pin the 87 extreme shot on any SSW, BUT the Feb cold and the impressive cold of the first half of March 87 is certainly something which you could link to that SSW.

I personally like 84-85 and I know its a year GP has mentioned, I also like the La nina winters of the mid 50s due to the similar timeframe of the +AMO phase/-PDO, though I'm not sure how well the QBO and other factors compare.

Probably got a while to wait yet before any SSW, I think if it does happen its going to be later rather then sooner on the timescale we are looking at...think its not going to have any impact on Jan and we'll have to wait till Feb for it to show any effects.