Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Although this current set up is frustrating for cold fans, there is plenty of potential in the charts. The cogs are in the wrong place at the moment, but this is subject to change. The sluggish Atlantic and solid blocking on offer bodes well for a very cold winter. Something to remember is that severe winter spells appear with only a week or two's notice. The previous cold winters had mild autumns and no one forecast last years freezing December on November 9th 2010. Back to the charts, various options are being played with at the moment with no real confidence. By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!

My sentiments exactly, we only have to look at the ECM 12z last night @ t168 to see that only slight changes in the models can make a big difference outcome.

Edited November 9, 2011 by No balls like Snow Balls

[rich1]

Yeah but remember what happened in February 1991?! Sorry mods, I'll get my coat.

i'd rather not, I wont be here then

autumn/winter 1990 was pretty boring but there was some snow at the start of the 2nd week in december, I think John Motson was pictured in it in Wycombe or somewhere

would be less boring if the high could build more over us and up the chances of fog and frost. Better than nothing as a holding pattern I suppose until the upstream signals shift this dirge. This though is pretty, well, toss, lots of cloud, drizzle and dank, dull days with it getting dark after 2.30. Meh

but I hope that this doesnt last that long. Would have more joy watching the new coat of paint dry on my bedroom wall for a month. There have been a few runs in the last couple of days that have suggested something a little different and hopefully they will emerge again, but they havent been able to be consistently strung together. Not yet anyway

wonder if Steve will appear today, give us some light but I wouldnt be that suprised if he didnt appear for a little while. At the moment you cant polish a turd. But will always think this situation can change, just hope its not, like, January, before it does. Had it been 2004-5-6-7 though I would be thinking we may be out of luck again this year, but the last few years give me a bit more optimism that even dire patterns can be broken unexpectedly

but I do think that, awful as this stalemate is, it maybe can be broken more favourably in the right circumstances than a roaring jet barreling warm temperatures almost in to Siberia

Edited November 9, 2011 by rich1

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Last time I can remember such stagnant synoptics was Feb 1986. So yes a stalemate can last a whole month as this one looks pretty much lasting 3-4 weeks in total.......

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Hello Chiono,my appologies if my post sounded a little annoying to you,you are correct a diffrence of opinion is allowed.that wasn,t my intention with the question.

I wasn't annoyed at all. It is good to question. There is no-one on here who is still not learning!

[Uncle_Barty]

Another day, another set of model output showing no change to the current pattern. Well.. maybe some changes but not till very deep in la-la land.

By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!

Any charts to back that up? or is that a hopecast? Genuine question.

[nick sussex]

Oh dear! hope extinguished and the ECM loses some of its credibility by backing down and delivering later output that looks a bit clueless.

Not much to add to this mornings output other than the stalemate continues, I can't remember the last time I saw such a stagnant pattern, it maybe positive down the line if the jet stays weak but for now it's utterly tedious!

[UV-RAY]

I see the confusion and I'm to blame. I see the Greenland HP mentioned, a southerly tracking jet won't produce one of them. We can get cold synotpics though aka Jan 84 which was pretty/very good for cold and snow in northern half of the UK, storm track right over heart of UK on many occasions.

BFTP

I see the confusion and I'm to blame. I see the Greenland HP mentioned, a southerly tracking jet won't produce one of them. We can get cold synotpics though aka Jan 84 which was pretty/very good for cold and snow in northern half of the UK, storm track right over heart of UK on many occasions.

BFTP

January 84 was fantastic for my location, but I can't see anything like that happening this winter unless we see a far more active Atlantic.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well as we sit and wait for a change of some sort what is going to happen to this HP? Will it eventually slip away ESE, stay or will it retrogress NW? Those seem the 3 logical steps here. In most noughties autumn/ winters one would see it get shovede away ESE. Last 3 winters a retrogression would be on the cards, a stagnaton and remaining in situ? Haven't see that one. So where do we go from here?

BFTP

[lord stratus]

Not hope casting. Model watching and weather predicting requires various inputs, not just scientific ones. You only require slight changes in the current set up to change the mood for cold fans! I like to look at the set ups in winters past along with the current science that we have on offer to make any predictions. Both methods are flawed of course, this why forecasts are so difficult. My current view is a dull mildish November progressing to a cold/very cold December. For cold fans it's surely best to use up any mild weather in November! The current set up will not last beyond November.

[karyo]

This autumn reminds me of autumn 2006 in terms of the high pressure stubbornly nesting in the continent and the constant feed of mild/very mild air. That was an El Nino year and this is a La Nina year but I see many similarities.

Karyo

[VillagePlank]

First real sign of any decent cold on the 00z 850hPa GEFS ensembles for the 21st. Only one member - so it's significance is very small - but it's there. Of course, the flip side is that other members are showing 850hPa temps of +10^oC. It's just nice to finally see something

It'll be gone by the morning :lol:

[Radiating Dendrite]

Although this current set up is frustrating for cold fans, there is plenty of potential in the charts. The cogs are in the wrong place at the moment, but this is subject to change. The sluggish Atlantic and solid blocking on offer bodes well for a very cold winter. Something to remember is that severe winter spells appear with only a week or two's notice. The previous cold winters had mild autumns and no one forecast last years freezing December on November 9th 2010. Back to the charts, various options are being played with at the moment with no real confidence. By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!

But there were signs of what was to come last year, especially when it came to what was happening in the stratosphere and the teleconnections.

At the moment, these signs do not appear to be there.

People could be in for a big let down! Assuming that "it was cold last November due to blocking" does not mean that it will happen this time round because we have a sluggish atlantic and a euro high.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It does not look like we will see temps reach 18c this weekend as some were predicting earlier in the week.

This is to do with the high being postioned more North than earlier runs allowing a slightly cooler Southeasterly flow rather than a Southerly flow earlier in the week.

[karyo]

It does not look like we will see temps reach 18c this weekend as some were predicting earlier in the week.

This is to do with the high being postioned more North than earlier runs allowing a slightly cooler Southeasterly flow rather than a Southerly flow earlier in the week.

14c in Southern England and 5c in Greece! lol

In fact the models are showing quite a cold plunge for the Bankans and southeast Europe with some snow in places! This is the second time this autumn that this is happening. Last time it was the second week of October.

Karyo

[Thundery wintry showers]

I saw an earlier post noting that a stagnant high pressure scenario would be less "boring" than a rampant Atlantic like in 1989/90, but I don't think we'll get anywhere near unanimous agreement on that. There's an argument that very little happens under stagnant high pressure whereas the weather changes a lot when the Atlantic is able to throw everything at us.

Certainly, very little will be happening over the next week or so. High pressure is set to slowly build to the north-east, so after a few days of dull drizzly weather, we will see clearer, drier air move in from the continent. I think this will translate to brighter weather and the chance of overnight frosts in western areas, but eastern areas will remain prone to cloud with the winds off the North Sea. There are superficial similarities with November 1993 at this stage, but come the 16th November we won't have the large cold pool over Russia that brought the snowy easterly of the 20th-22nd November 1993, so any snowy outbreaks in the last third of November 2011 will probably have to come from the north rather than the east.

[karyo]

I saw an earlier post noting that a stagnant high pressure scenario would be less "boring" than a rampant Atlantic like in 1989/90, but I don't think we'll get anywhere near unanimous agreement on that. There's an argument that very little happens under stagnant high pressure whereas the weather changes a lot when the Atlantic is able to throw everything at us.

I would be very happy with a stagnant high over the UK, giving us fog and frost or cool cloudy weather. The problem with the current high is that it's too far south and east so we end up with the constant mild flow. The ECM yesterday suggested a much better position for some surface cold but today it pushed the high a bit further east again.

Karyo

Edited November 9, 2011 by karyo

[shedhead]

Whilst not following FI per sa, the evolution touted by the 06 run looks about right to me, or at least far more right than retrogression and the onset of northern blocking. After a quieter spell next week I think the most likely senario is for HP to slip south across Europe, introducing a SW flow, which will then become increasingly active through the final third of the month as the Jet flattens a fires up.

[Bottesford]

Certainly, very little will be happening over the next week or so. High pressure is set to slowly build to the north-east, so after a few days of dull drizzly weather, we will see clearer, drier air move in from the continent. I think this will translate to brighter weather and the chance of overnight frosts in western areas, but eastern areas will remain prone to cloud with the winds off the North Sea.

Ah at last some hope of a change from the current drab conditions. And even better a post (well a couple of posts) about the upcoming weather in the near future. It'd be grand if we could see more shorter term analysis here that isn't looking purely for cold building blocks. Many of us want to know what the weekend will be like as seeing sunshine mixed in with the mildness would be lovely whereas a continuation of this low cloud would set some serious SAD off!

[kold weather]

Well models have largely shifted away from the Greenland solution and gone with the HP nearby solution. We are still stuck in a classic no-man land type set-up with LP generally to our west and HP generally to our east. Looks like the high pressure to our east will become a more dominant feature next week. i'm sure deeper in winter the pattern could become a cold one but right now there is little in the way of cold air over Europe so probably still probably average temps before maybe shifting slightly above as the LP starts to move in again.

[Backtrack]

It does not look like we will see temps reach 18c this weekend as some were predicting earlier in the week.

This is to do with the high being postioned more North than earlier runs allowing a slightly cooler Southeasterly flow rather than a Southerly flow earlier in the week.

Hmm, a slight downgrade in terms of temperatures for the weekend perhaps, but the hi-res NMM model is going for temperatures hitting 17C in places tomorrow. So for those of you looking for warmth, tomorrow could turn out quite pleasant.

[wolvesfan]

Well as we sit and wait for a change of some sort what is going to happen to this HP? Will it eventually slip away ESE, stay or will it retrogress NW? Those seem the 3 logical steps here. In most noughties autumn/ winters one would see it get shovede away ESE. Last 3 winters a retrogression would be on the cards, a stagnaton and remaining in situ? Haven't see that one. So where do we go from here?

BFTP

Hello BFTP,I think from what the models are showing at the moment a gradually erosion of the high pressure as it is shunted SE by a more southerly tracking jetstream could well be likely.the sub tropical ridge should also be migrating further south as we head into winter this i would imagine? will reduce the mid atlantic troughing thats dominant at the moment,so my moneys on a more flatter jet leading to something more zonal, mixed with the odd polar maritime incursion if we continue to see a strong vortex.thats my take on what we are seeing at the moment.i do think we will see a spell of blocking at some point in the future as well.Thanks. Edited November 9, 2011 by wolvesfan

[Tim Bland]

To add salt to the wounds The operational GFS 06z was one of the coldest on the ensembles!

Edited November 9, 2011 by Paul

[shedhead]

Edit - Sorry this is just going to take this topic away from the models, please repost into the general winter or winter forecast threads.

Edited November 9, 2011 by Paul

[phil nw.]

Oh dear! hope extinguished and the ECM loses some of its credibility by backing down and delivering later output that looks a bit clueless.

Not much to add to this mornings output other than the stalemate continues, I can't remember the last time I saw such a stagnant pattern, it maybe positive down the line if the jet stays weak but for now it's utterly tedious!

Hi Nick,

Yes it`s a stubborn pattern alright and no chinks of light yet.

To be honest i was not excited by yesterdays 12 ECM as i posted last night.

Too much other output was against it,incl.Ens and mean charts--nothing upstream had changed to me at that point either.

I think we are all keen to see something different now--whatever our preference and i will be as eager as anyone to highlight the first tangeable sign.

Edited November 9, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Yes it`s a stubborn pattern alright and no chinks of light yet.

To be honest i was not excited by yesterdays 12 ECM as i posted last night.

Too much other output was against it,incl.Ens and mean charts--nothing upstream had changed to me at that point either.

I think we are all keen to something different now--whatever our preference and i will be as eager as anyone to highlight the first tangable sign.

Yes its unfortunate that the troughing didn't limpet itself a little further se as that would given the ridge a bit more support and allowed a longer spell of cooler continental air as the flow would have been more se'rly.

At the moment I can tell you here that its positively warm and sunny and set to get even warmer with temps into the 20's! The ski resorts are expected to open on the 26th November but I very much doubt that will occur unless theres a dramatic change in the pattern.

Of course they won't hit the panic button just yet as its the key Xmas holiday period that's crucial, anyway I'd better get back on topic!

In the past we have often seen weeks of mild zonality so this is just another type of pattern thats decided to outstay it's welcome!