Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

You can't be serious.Because we have had a long run of Southerly winds since the end of Sept your writing off the whole winter?

Trawl through the archive charts over at Wetterzentrale to see similar patterns that have evolved over the Autumn months,yet the winter that followed was cold or very cold.

I really admire you optimism Sleety believe me but I can see where JS's thoughts are coming from. That huge block to the east of us just doesn't seem to be going anywhere. I have seen some of those charts you are on about and some have led to some very cold winters - a long way to go I feel and lets be grateful we are only in the first half of November.

[Frosty.]

This autumn is just beginning to become a bit of a nightmare for coldies, barely a frost so far and no sign of snow or widespread frosts for the rest of this month. The models just don't look like producing any wintry weather for the uk in the next 3 or 4 weeks at least but it's a very different story for the far north of europe and canada. This week, the dull and drizzly weather will persist for a bit longer but then drying up and becoming brighter with very mild temps in the range of 16c but next week will be a bit less mild but mostly settled with low pressure struggling to make any inroads, it's just like the movie groundhog day but nowhere near as funny...the only good news is official winter is still 3 weeks away but will the pattern have improved by december.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 12z ECM is looking like a half decent run to me. Might quell the pessimism a bit.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The ECMWF @ T168 has a much better orientation of the euro high if much cooler daytime and evening temps is what you are after, There would be much more of a Easterly/North Easterly feed rather than the more South Easterly feed of the T168 GFS.

ECM 500MB

GFS 500MB

GFS 850'S

ECM 850'S

Look at how much closer the colder 850's get to the UK on the ECM because of the better orientation of the euro high, not saying they will reach the UK (far from it) but we would certainly experience much cooler temps than we have been used too.

[Snowstorm1]

The Ecm 12z perfectly illustrates minor changes having a knock on effect to us weather its a mild southerly or a much cooler easterly. ( So coldies don't be downbeat all the signs are there its just wether we can get them to fit into place this starting point for winter is a good place imo !

[Cheshire Freeze]

Considering the fact the GFS ensembles are trending cooler in FI each run and the ECM is once again toying with more amplification, I think we could have been lead up the garden path by the GFS.

[Geordiesnow]

the dull and drizzly weather will persist for a bit longer but then drying up and becoming brighter with very mild temps in the range of 16c

Don't particularly agree with that assesment too much regarding rainfall amounts. If anything the rainfall amounts will increase as we go through the week albeit eastern areas could remain mostly dry but probably stay rather cloudy, whilst you can't rule out some brighter moments for some, I think most areas will remain under cloudy skies, I can't see any blue skies and sunshine on the horizon like what sheltered parts of NW Scotland had today but it looks like the weekend might brighten up with sunshine becoming more widespread. It also looks like Friday could be a wet day pretty widespread but it depends how far westwards that low pressure gets so a bit of a battle in that respects.

The ECM offers some hope for cold lovers but in fairness most model runs have suggested more like the UKMO/GFS but of course you can never rule it out.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is slightly more bearable for cold lovers as it at least develops a surface flow from the continent but we've been here before with it recently.

Can we trust it with its more northerly projection of the high at 144hrs?

It does however seem consistent with splitting the PV, if you look at its later output it does tease with colder air to the ne but unless some energy from the limpet trough heads into southern Europe and cuts off the high pressure in the Med then it's close but no cigar!

Still at least it gives some hope and given tonights GFS its certainly welcome!

It does have some support this evening from the JMA at 192hrs, you know things are desperate when I start using this model to raise hopes in here!

Edited November 8, 2011 by nick sussex

[Harsh Climate]

Lol the pessimism on here at the moment is just laughable .

I think its good that we have had so much mild weather recently, Id rather have it that way than classic winter charts a month 2 early! Whether the weather is cold or mild right now will have absolutely no baring on this winter what so ever!

The number 1 pre-curser to any real winter weather lies in the telleconections, last year proved this! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

If the Nao and AO head below -3 the atlantic will be blocked and cold weather will move into west/central/northern europe or maybe all!

Edited November 8, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[492]

This may sound stupid but is it possible for Europe to cool down by itself, when i say by itself i mean without the movement of artic air filtering down to cool down europe.

So for example lets just say that euro high was stuck over Europe until December would we see Europe cool down quite dramaticly under clear skies and not much movement of air?

If so then does the gfs actually take that into account??

Europe cooling down on its own is a very valid point especially with some of the output we are seeing at the moment. If the ridge to the east were to persist then cooling of the continent would occur by various mechanisms for example radiation under clear skies, radiation from the fog top when its foggy, radiation from the top of low cloud when that is present and advection of colder air from further east. Eventually much of Europe would be under a cold spell and with a high to our east or even southeast the colder air would inevitably filter into the UK. The key is whether the ridge to the east persists into winter.

[Harsh Climate]

The 12z ECM is looking like a half decent run to me. Might quell the pessimism a bit.

At 216-240h my money would be on ECM been closer to the truth than the GFS anyday!

Although the gfs esembles don't look great with not many perpetrations heading towards -5C 850hpa it might not be far from the truth.. Even on this great ECM run -5 850hpa air doesn't come into our shores.

GFS:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...t~Yorkshire.png

So even the esembles won't tell us a great deal at this stage.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

Lol the pessimism on here at the moment is just laughable .

I think its good that we have had so much mild weather recently, Id rather have it that way than classic winter charts a month 2 early! Whether the weather is cold or mild right now will have absolutely no baring on this winter what so ever!

The number 1 pre-curser to any real winter weather lies in the telleconections, last year proved this! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621223.gif

If the Nao and AO head below -3 the atlantic will be blocked and cold weather will move into west/central/northern europe or maybe all!

If anyone saw that 1962 chart at that point in December there would be nothing but pessimism- the intensity of the PV over Greenland was strong, yet look what happened shortly after......

[Robbie Garrett]

Considering the fact the GFS ensembles are trending cooler in FI each run and the ECM is once again toying with more amplification, I think we could have been lead up the garden path by the GFS.

I just noticed that with the latest runs, looking cooler that's for sure. Repeat of last year's November? Probably never going to happen, a repeat of December 2010? likely?

A high of 1040 to our East, a high of 1032 to our SW and a low in between dragging cooler air down. What would be better is for the high to our SW to move slightly further west and start the Northern blocking, but that depends on the further high in the north atlantic. Once the low over south greenland moves further inroads, 25th November onwards could be our first snowfall if it drags some of that polar air down with it.

[Strider]

Can I ask why ECM is more likely to verify than GFS?

Just because it shows a cooler evolution is not an acceptable answer and is misleading to inexperianced forecasters reading this thread

GFS has very strong esemble support, and besides ECM isn't *that* good anyway - it just leads back to the atlantic.

[Frosty.]

Don't particularly agree with that assesment too much regarding rainfall amounts. If anything the rainfall amounts will increase as we go through the week albeit eastern areas could remain mostly dry but probably stay rather cloudy

Yes that was an oversight by me, more in the way of rain for the west and some central areas but better in the east with a bit of sunshine but very warm for the time of year, more like september than approaching mid november.

[nick sussex]

At 216-240h my money would be on ECM been closer to the truth than the GFS anyday!

Although the gfs esembles don't look great with not many perpetrations heading towards -5C 850hpa it might not be far from the truth.. Even on this great ECM run does -5 850hpa air come into our shores.

GFS:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...t~Yorkshire.png

So even the esembles won't tell a great deal at this stage.

Thats why until we lose that high over southern Europe then the ECM can pile as much cold air to the ne which may look good but won't make it to the UK. If you look at the ECM 240hrs you can see it's debating whether to eject a shortwave off the limpet trough. At that point its simple, east into southern Europe game on! ne towards the UK game over!

Given we're stuck with this troughing unless it disrupts then I can't see real cold occuring, apart from some faux cold off the continent.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can I ask why ECM is more likely to verify than GFS?

Just because it shows a cooler evolution is not an acceptable answer and is misleading to inexperianced forecasters reading this thread

GFS has very strong esemble support, and besides ECM isn't *that* good anyway - it just leads back to the atlantic.

I disagree that the 240 ECM chart would lead back to the Atlantic per se, to me it looks as though the southern jet is being forced south by cut off high around Greenland, lowering heights over the continent and the potential for a later northeasterly flow.

EDIT: Nick summarises the 240 chart perfectly in the post above

Edited November 8, 2011 by CreweCold

[cold snap]

well what can we say about the 12zs?

Gfs run has to be the most boring run from start to finish ,still know way out of geting rid of that high.

Ecm is slightly better,however as gfs has stucked to it guns.i feel ecm will come on board soon.

[cyclonic happiness]

Thats why until we lose that high over southern Europe then the ECM can pile as much cold air to the ne which may look good but won't make it to the UK. If you look at the ECM 240hrs you can see it's debating whether to eject a shortwave off the limpet trough. At that point its simple, east into southern Europe game on! ne towards the UK game over!

Given we're stuck with this troughing unless it disrupts then I can't see real cold occuring, apart from some faux cold off the continent.

'Faux cold' make the temperature drop and makes pretty frosts for me to look at out of the window, which makes me feel like winter is on it's way.

Let's get the cold over Europe and Scandi' first before looking for uk cold.

The split polar vortex keeps popping up, which is a good sign too.

[Harsh Climate]

Can I ask why ECM is more likely to verify than GFS?

Just because it shows a cooler evolution is not an acceptable answer and is misleading to inexperianced forecasters reading this thread

GFS has very strong esemble support, and besides ECM isn't *that* good anyway - it just leads back to the atlantic.

lol, don't even go down that road!

''That because it shows what I want to see Is the reason I'm backing it up.....''

Any experienced member on here knows it has a higher verification accuracy of most models, definatly ahead of the the gfs and ukmo! The ecm is usually the best model at picking up blocking to the north/east and the atlantic calming down.

[Snowstorm1]

'Faux cold' make the temperature drop and makes pretty frosts for me to look at out of the window, which makes me feel like winter is on it's way.

Let's get the cold over Europe and Scandi' first before looking for uk cold.

The split polar vortex keeps popping up, which is a good sign too.

I agree my first aim is to get 'Faux Cold' over the Uk then look Northeast!

The charts are fuil of potential IMO and I'm liking the possible jet profile upstream. We could see soon start to see something interesting developing at the 9-10 day range or we may have to wait a little longer, but I'm confident of a decent cold shot in the final third of the month.

I have got to admit it is good to see you posting with balance than compared to many years ago and Ive got to give you a pat on the back for that mate!

My admiration of you have gone up an awful lot

(Mods may delete but I felt this recognition was deserved)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The charts are fuil of potential IMO and I'm liking the possible jet profile upstream. We could see soon start to see something interesting developing at the 9-10 day range or we may have to wait a little longer, but I'm confident of a decent cold shot in the final third of the month.

Love your timing for a post Ian....and I actually like your timing re evolution. :smiliz19:

I think that the models will keep toying around with developments but it does spice it up a little seeing the ECM 12z run which heads towards what GFS showed 3 days ago in deep FI which now would be in T300 range...and which ECM 240 would lead onto. So maybe a signal is being picked up on...maybe.

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

The charts are fuil of potential IMO and I'm liking the possible jet profile upstream. We could see soon start to see something interesting developing at the 9-10 day range or we may have to wait a little longer, but I'm confident of a decent cold shot in the final third of the month.

Aaaaahhhh Mr Brown I do believe this is the first time I've actually agreed with you weatherwise I do agree, the synoptics just look a little bit like they may unleash some true cold weather in the not so distant future.

[Robbie Garrett]

The runs in FI look very interesting, take a look at my take on things. Considering how LP and HP work, that looks very much possible - and even though this is so far away, the Jetstream follows the high and pushes the low southbound into Europe.

[Isolated Frost]

The charts are fuil of potential IMO and I'm liking the possible jet profile upstream. We could see soon start to see something interesting developing at the 9-10 day range or we may have to wait a little longer, but I'm confident of a decent cold shot in the final third of the month.

Ian Brown's ramped up cold. Very similar to when Craig Evans didn't predict record warmth last December, you know something cold's around the corner! Hahaha.

Arctic floodgates open as a massive hp belt from siberia to alaska evolves. PV looks immense by novaya semlya and we have lift off with the arctic front touching Hammerfest. Svalbard tickets booked and ready thanks!

North pole gets a nice ridge from Greenland, PFJ still south and that arctic air floods into Kiruna.

Game is still on really, and there is optimism personally for a cooler/cold last week of the month. PFJ just reacting well for us and PV setting up well.