Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November

[peterf]

no need for models,when the usual suspects turn up i fully expect my gas bill to go up lol.

[nick sussex]

The GFS starts favourably then goes into yawnsville with an over indulgence in shallow features in the higher resolution part of the output. The juries still out but at least they haven't reached a verdict yet!

It's hard to imagine its November with the jet so weak, overall faux cold still looks the best bet, we'll have to see what the models do tomorrow.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z looks like another close but no cigar,without the close part.

[Alex]

I think it's very reasonable to conclude it will become colder in the next 10-14days but at the moment there is little evidence to suggest a pattern similar to last November. I would say it looks like avg maybe slightly below which will feel alot colder than the current pattern. I notice the NAO going negative which may help build heights to our north but positioning will be vital to how much cold we pull in.

[lorenzo]

Deep FI but illustrates the conundrum.. I think that 3 days on from this psychic chart we will see a real evolution to cold, the lag time ( 4 days or so by guesstimates) of the input of the MJO wave if verified at phase 2.

SM idea of an azores low finely poised with the birth of another limpet Scandi Block (300).

Last year when looking for a trend in the lower reaches of the model runs, MJO signals tended to be factored in like this and would then repeat before defaulting back to a stalemate position.]

In regards to the GWO boost, caught note of freak weather stranding people at Everest base camp in Himalayas briefly today.. loosely links into the models and cannot help thinking that Torque event has been the event that has kicked the ECM into life..

Edited November 8, 2011 by lorenzo

[ITSY]

I too don't see anything hugely promising - though I don't have quite the educated eye as some of those on here. For me the outlook is either mild (GFS) or a cold outlier (ECM). We've seen potential during FI on and off for the best part of a couple of weeks now. As long as the models aren't in agreement for cold, I'm sticking with mild is being likely.

[SW19 WATCHER]

Hi all,

Charts looking slightly better,all to play for imo.Still early days,and as we can see from the Mets further outlook from this day last year,even they hadnt started to pick up on what was just around the corner!!

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 7 Dec 2010:

The trend is for generally brighter, more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1153 on Mon 8 Nov 2010

[kold weather]

As long as the upper high gets far enough west as to influence the flow to a more SE/ESE flow in its own right then those surface temps will be coming down. Still early for very cold conditions with that sort of set-up the models show by 168hrs but certainly a return to air frost would be probable by then.

The 18z GFS is rather close to the 12z ECM, so eventual set-up would very likely be along similar lines.

12z ECM would be good to finally get some proper cold air and snow into E.Europe and W.Russia as well...

[ZONE 51]

Hi all,

Charts looking slightly better,all to play for imo.Still early days,and as we can see from the Mets further outlook from this day last year,even they hadnt started to pick up on what was just around the corner!!

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 7 Dec 2010:

The trend is for generally brighter, more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1153 on Mon 8 Nov 2010

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would love to see that happen as I desperately want to see a Greenland block occur without stratospheric support to show that it can happen! ( not that I believe that it can!). But it is a long way off and with limited support.

Yes it can, its about the jet diving south and we don't need Stratos warming to produce cold synoptics.

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like the potential for widespread very unusual warmth has diminished a little bit for the weekend due to the low pressure to our west bring slightly fresher air in for Saturday especially for Northern areas whilst on Sunday we pick up a drier(lower dewpoints I imagine) wind therefore temps are not predicted to be as high despite the warmer upper air temps. Temperatures are still likely to get well above average and in any sunshine(which should be more widespread by the weekend) it will probably feel more like September than November.

Whilst that is going on, it will be interesting too see if the ECM is leading onto something which may bring something a bit fresher but in all honesty we do seem a fair way off from cold at the moment although needless to say it can change quite quickly.

[cyclonic happiness]

I'm annoyed on two counts.

Firstly, I have the squits and have been awake the whole night and have only an hour till I get up.

Secondly, I have just seen the 0z run and I cannot believe that the current set-up will not allow anything to change.

Surely we can't have a whole month stuck in exactly the same synoptic rut????

Something is going to have to give sooner or later.

[mushymanrob]

I'm annoyed on two counts.

Firstly, I have the squits and have been awake the whole night and have only an hour till I get up.

Secondly, I have just seen the 0z run and I cannot believe that the current set-up will not allow anything to change.

Surely we can't have a whole month stuck in exactly the same synoptic rut????

Something is going to have to give sooner or later.

you wouldnt be moaning if the rut was a favourable one...

im frustrated too, more perfect summer synoptics (actually a pattern very similar to what gp's summer forecast wa, i believe), here in november .

looks like we have a week at least of southerlies, suits me.

[wolvesfan]

Yes it can, its about the jet diving south and we don't need Stratos warming to produce cold synoptics.

BFTP

Morning BFTP,I'm a little confused(dosn't take much)Ch says we need warming in the stratosphere to decrease strenght of the vortex and see reduction in westerly flow i presume?,this will favour a rise in pressure to our north,but what you say about the trajectory of the jet also seems correct because even with a stronger vortex and subsequant increase in westerlie flow wouldn't this diverge into the jet?.thanks.

[rich1]

Theme still fairly consistent, a warm week followed by an incremental, painstaking cool down back to averageish. Is about as interesting as watching England play football

not expecting any changes to the modelled pattern this week except small variations, its a very boring one but if things improve in to December I for one wont care all that much

its not quite as bad as the standard winter pattern we have had in byegone years, which sets up in November and carries on with very few interruptions in to march, the upstream conditions can shift these blocks sooner or later and recent years propensity to winter northern blocking makes me feel this can happen again in a few weeks. Its just this year we have November as a indian summer month rather than the winter month it was last year. Its an autumn month at the end of the day, so I never expect lots of cold, but these blocks are indeed tiresome viewing and require a lot of lip biting when watching TV forecasts right now

[ANYWEATHER]

To be Honest, folks the current set up could well last a fair bit longer than most folk anticipate or want and really testing the patience of the true Cold Lovers on here especially if they think back just 12 months ago!! Ive seen these blocking patterns last weeks if not months, and no Im not saying this pattern will be here at Christmas, but I certainly think November will be totally mild with little change at all in the current synoptics, I for one hate this set-up, I would prefer something interesting ie a nice Polar Maritime Airmass covering the Uk for instance! of course it will change at some point with some vengence, but for now im being Realistic!!

[Liam J]

I don't think I can ever remember a time when we have been stuck in such a boring stationary weather picture, the GFS looks pretty much the same all the way from T0-T384hrs with the Euro block holding strong to our east drawing up mild air from a long way south. We do see areas of low pressure try to make it over the UK bringing rain at times with breezy conditions over the west, but the block is deflecting these north and soon reasserts itself in control. ECM holds some hope right at the end as the HP gets flattened and replaced by very slack low pressure leaving the door open for the Atlantic trough to penetrate eastwards, perhaps! Shame we can't see past 240hrs on the ECM as I would have liked to see that depression modelled leaving the states steam roll across water and smash into NW Europe and knock the skittles over!!

These synoptics would have been great in summer as has been mentioned above, GP's Summer forecast has arrived in November!! How long can this keep up I really don't know, I would much rather have a raging Atlantic at present at least it would be some excitment!

Can anybody let me borrow some prozac?!

Edited November 9, 2011 by Liam J

[ANYWEATHER]

I don't think I can ever remember a time when we have been stuck in such a boring stationary weather picture, the GFS looks pretty much the same all the way from T0-T384hrs with the Euro block holding strong to our east drawing up mild air from a long way south. We do see areas of low pressure try to make it over the UK bringing rain at times with breezy conditions over the west, but the block is deflecting these north and soon reasserts itself in control. ECM holds some hope right at the end as the HP gets flattened and replaced by very slack low pressure leaving the door open for the Atlantic trough to penetrate eastwards, perhaps! Shame we can't see past 240hrs on the ECM as I would have liked to see that depression modelled leaving the states steam roll across water and smash into NW Europe and knock the skittles over!!

These synoptics would have been great in summer as has been mentioned above, GP's Summer forecast has arrived in November!! How long can this keep up I really don't know, I would much rather have a raging Atlantic at present at least it would be some excitment!

Can anybody let me borrow some prozac?!

Well on today in History, 21 years ago today a similar pattern to what we have today, although the mild pattern that year was broken at times it was generally very mild at times right up to Christmas!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I don't think I can ever remember a time when we have been stuck in such a boring stationary weather picture, the GFS looks pretty much the same all the way from T0-T384hrs with the Euro block holding strong to our east drawing up mild air from a long way south. We do see areas of low pressure try to make it over the UK bringing rain at times with breezy conditions over the west, but the block is deflecting these north and soon reasserts itself in control. ECM holds some hope right at the end as the HP gets flattened and replaced by very slack low pressure leaving the door open for the Atlantic trough to penetrate eastwards, perhaps! Shame we can't see past 240hrs on the ECM as I would have liked to see that depression modelled leaving the states steam roll across water and smash into NW Europe and knock the skittles over!!

These synoptics would have been great in summer as has been mentioned above, GP's Summer forecast has arrived in November!! How long can this keep up I really don't know, I would much rather have a raging Atlantic at present at least it would be some excitment!

Can anybody let me borrow some prozac?!

I dont think I have either, but I would much prefer this to raging Atlantic wet, windy westerlies, even the 384 chart looks very similar to todays

[chionomaniac]

Morning BFTP,I'm a little confused(dosn't take much)Ch says we need warming in the stratosphere to decrease strenght of the vortex and see reduction in westerly flow i presume?,this will favour a rise in pressure to our north,but what you say about the trajectory of the jet also seems correct because even with a stronger vortex and subsequant increase in westerlie flow wouldn't this diverge into the jet?.thanks.

It's a difference of opinion - it is allowed! I believe with a strong stratospheric vortex there will still be too much energy going north in the jet even if the southern arm heads south. I would love to be wrong.

[wolvesfan]

It's a difference of opinion - it is allowed! I believe with a strong stratospheric vortex there will still be too much energy going north in the jet even if the southern arm heads south. I would love to be wrong.

Hello Chiono,my appologies if my post sounded a little annoying to you,you are correct a diffrence of opinion is allowed.that wasn,t my intention with the question.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just checked the models hoping for some change.

Another yawn fest! I do not think I have ever seen such a stagnant picture in all my time of being on netweather.

The only saving grace............it is November

[Roadrunner]

Well on today in History, 21 years ago today a similar pattern to what we have today, although the mild pattern that year was broken at times it was generally very mild at times right up to Christmas!!

Yeah but remember what happened in February 1991?! Sorry mods, I'll get my coat.

[lord stratus]

Although this current set up is frustrating for cold fans, there is plenty of potential in the charts. The cogs are in the wrong place at the moment, but this is subject to change. The sluggish Atlantic and solid blocking on offer bodes well for a very cold winter. Something to remember is that severe winter spells appear with only a week or two's notice. The previous cold winters had mild autumns and no one forecast last years freezing December on November 9th 2010. Back to the charts, various options are being played with at the moment with no real confidence. By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning BFTP,I'm a little confused(dosn't take much)Ch says we need warming in the stratosphere to decrease strenght of the vortex and see reduction in westerly flow i presume?,this will favour a rise in pressure to our north,but what you say about the trajectory of the jet also seems correct because even with a stronger vortex and subsequant increase in westerlie flow wouldn't this diverge into the jet?.thanks.

I see the confusion and I'm to blame. I see the Greenland HP mentioned, a southerly tracking jet won't produce one of them. We can get cold synotpics though aka Jan 84 which was pretty/very good for cold and snow in northern half of the UK, storm track right over heart of UK on many occasions.

BFTP