Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

[shedhead]

It's good to see that there's no sign at all of any wintry weather, as yet, from this morning's GFS run. At least for those of us who have to worry about paying our electricity bills, that is...

I wouldn't personally call it good, but it's certainly accurate. The 06GFS looks a mild lovers dream, with some very decent temperatures again likely right across the 2nd half of November IF it were to verify,

the only real positive for me being T+384 is still only the 1st official day of Winter.

Edited November 15, 2011 by shedhead

[chionomaniac]

Never mind looking for cold and snow, is there any chance of dry weather in the foreseeable? Round these parts it's been wet for what feels like an eternity, it's either raining, drizzling or murky and grey - any chance of it drying up and the Sun coming out?

I suspect not jethro. Just a cursory glance for the west country suggests rain, cloud and drizzle.

[Rob125]

Never mind looking for cold and snow, is there any chance of dry weather in the foreseeable? Round these parts it's been wet for what feels like an eternity, it's either raining, drizzling or murky and grey - any chance of it drying up and the Sun coming out?

You must have missed Sunday - clear blue skies, lovely walk around Chew Valley Lake - but it is only half full according to the board in the information office.

[jethro]

You must have missed Sunday - clear blue skies, lovely walk around Chew Valley Lake - but it is only half full according to the board in the information office.

I was in London so missed that.

Really need some dry weather, I've got so much work to do which is proving impossible with the ground so wet; nightmare scenario for me would be a quick switch to hard frosts after all this wet.

I suspect not jethro. Just a cursory glance for the west country suggests rain, cloud and drizzle.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Lol Liam we have just shown you (well several members) the correct definition. Just put the argument to bed. Your making yourself sound a little silly now lol

Bartlett - High pressure extends from the Azores area, east-north-eastwards towards the Biscay / English Channel region - perhaps now & then displaced towards the Alps.

Have a look through the GFS run and tell me that there isn't high pressure strecthing from the Azores E-NE'wards towards the UK and then eastwards again over Europe.

http://www.meteociel...gfse_cartes.php

I am not 100% correct, but also I'm not 100% incorrect either.

[scotty_boy_winter]

So explain what pattern you see emerging BFTP? You keep saying its getting colder soon (that's obvious at some stage it will) but what science, charts have helped you come to this conclusion?

And last week is still a long way off model wise so no issues there, plenty of time for cold to develop as per GFS but is way in FI. Cold is term not wintry [as that may imply snowy conditions].

Re talkign of models I think talking of how they may develop is good rather than just talking of whats in front you in the model run, as they change so much and one can see what a model shows and thus unless one is a learner and such posts are very useful. But so are posts expressing how one reads a model and may see a new pattern emerge?

BFTP

[Glacier Point]

When do you think the atmosphere will become dislodged from its current state GP?

It seems there is something inhibiting the movement of the GWO into a more desirable phase?

How much longer do you think we will have to endure the current pattern?

We get a shot at real change in late December when the next burst of westerly winds is due to take place in the Indian Ocean, by which time seasonal wavelengths should begin to get a bit more favourable and hopefully the polar stratosphere should begin to warm a little. Whether this takes effect immediately or more progressively (I'll favour the latter) is open to debate.

The GWO is merely reflecting the overall global synoptic pattern so it is not in itself preventing a more favourable pattern from evoliving, it's just the entire system at the moment is fixed on delivering an Atlantic trough and downstream ridge over western Europe.

In terms of managing expectation, I would go for change into the second half of the winter as more likely, after Christmas at least.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

We get a shot at real change in late December when the next burst of westerly winds is due to take place in the Indian Ocean, by which time seasonal wavelengths should begin to get a bit more favourable and hopefully the polar stratosphere should begin to warm a little. Whether this takes effect immediately or more progressively (I'll favour the latter) is open to debate.

The GWO is merely reflecting the overall global synoptic pattern so it is not in itself preventing a more favourable pattern from evoliving, it's just the entire system at the moment is fixed on delivering an Atlantic trough and downstream ridge over western Europe.

In terms of managing expectation, I would go for change into the second half of the winter as more likely, after Christmas at least.

Your like the grim reaper and pantomime villan all rolled into one

[La Bise]

Excellent, thanks GP, just published something along those lines yesterday for my readers...Glad to see you in agreement

Inversion cold should prove a handy exit door for those who predicted severe cold coming at some point in November -"Look, it's ice there!"

Models - groundhog day, just copy and paste any comment for the last weeks. The pattern is there to last and I fear what will replace it is zonal.

[Bristawl Si]

In terms of managing expectation, I would go for change into the second half of the winter as more likely, after Christmas at least.

Which, just to remind a lot of folk on here, is pretty near normal as one can get to a more typical UK winter weather pattern - last winter (late Nov/December cold and snow) was exceptional.

in my lifetime more typical winter weather (snow and freezing temps) are more likely in doses past Christmas

Edited November 15, 2011 by Bristle boy

[shedhead]

We get a shot at real change in late December when the next burst of westerly winds is due to take place in the Indian Ocean, by which time seasonal wavelengths should begin to get a bit more favourable and hopefully the polar stratosphere should begin to warm a little. Whether this takes effect immediately or more progressively (I'll favour the latter) is open to debate.

The GWO is merely reflecting the overall global synoptic pattern so it is not in itself preventing a more favourable pattern from evoliving, it's just the entire system at the moment is fixed on delivering an Atlantic trough and downstream ridge over western Europe.

In terms of managing expectation, I would go for change into the second half of the winter as more likely, after Christmas at least.

Thanks for that GP. Disappointing yes from a cold lovers perspective, but having been backed by sound reasoning as usual, I'm reluctant to ignore it in favour of some of the more fanciful, unfounded predictions currently out there.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SBW, we may get stuck in this southerly rut for months, it won't get colder then. I'll post a monthly outlook Monday [maybe Tues] and that will suffice. I just suggest that last week of Nov is when we could see onset of colder conditions. Pressure pattern should be in more favourable orientation and I haven't suggested a freeze or blizzards etc but a marked change to the very mild conditions. As I have also said too that I am not convinced that it will be a longterm onslaught as per last year and I am tending towards RJS view point at present. Models in FI flirt on and off with this idea, but it remains in deep FI. Its why I posted in response to Chinio that models to be revisited back end of this week to see where we are...last week of Nov will be 'in sight' on the models and not so deep FI, although still in FI. Folk will always tend to go with a forecast or forecaster who is inadvertently supporting their view. Two weeks is a long time, a month a very long time in forecasting.

Edited November 15, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[shedhead]

SBW, we may get stuck in this southerly rut for months, it won't get colder then. I'll post a monthly outlook Monday [maybe Tues] and that will suffice. I just suggest that last week of Nov is when we could see onset of colder conditions. Pressure pattern should be in more favourable orientation and I haven't suggested a freeze or blizzards etc but a marked change to the very mild conditions. As I have also said too that I am not convinced that it will be a longterm onslaught as per last year and I am tending towards RJS view point at present. Models in FI flirt on and off with this idea, but it remains in deep FI. Its why I posted in response to Chinio that models to be revisited back end of this week to see where we are...last week of Nov will be 'in sight' on the models and not so deep FI, although still in FI.

Folk will always tend to go with a forecast or forecaster who is inadvertently supporting their view. Two weeks is a long time, a month a very long time in forecasting. Many got winter right in parts last year, no one got it all right.

BFTP

I think what's of interest to most BFTP is why you still think this, when nothing in the current model outputs or teleconnective patterns suggests it's even remotely likely? Perhaps when making such statements you could back them up with some kind of rationale/reasoning, which will help us immensely, experienced and non experienced alike.

Edited November 15, 2011 by shedhead

[VillagePlank]

We get a shot at real change in late December when the next burst of westerly winds is due to take place in the Indian Ocean, by which time seasonal wavelengths should begin to get a bit more favourable and hopefully the polar stratosphere should begin to warm a little. Whether this takes effect immediately or more progressively (I'll favour the latter) is open to debate.

The GWO is merely reflecting the overall global synoptic pattern so it is not in itself preventing a more favourable pattern from evoliving, it's just the entire system at the moment is fixed on delivering an Atlantic trough and downstream ridge over western Europe.

In terms of managing expectation, I would go for change into the second half of the winter as more likely, after Christmas at least.

Thanks for that: the surprise is that my winter forecast seems to agree (although it puts the seriously cold weather back to February) Shocker!

[rich1]

My own view on the LRF business ties in with the Met Office quotation on the BBC site which is in their own words 'The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster'. May add a bit longer for stuck in a rut patterns such as these but not 6 weeks myself. There are so many variables to consider. At the moment they arent on our side which is why I dont envisage anything much colder than average before the month is out. Before the chaos theory comes in to play, and of course in recent years we have learned to expect the unexpected

Of course the 06z was, as expected, another mild run, the op was the mildest at the end [with some support] though some ensemble variation towards the end. think we will have to bide our time for a few days longer to see if any of the variables make their way closer to us. Fair way to go yet

[feb1991blizzard]

Not much has changed in the output since i last posted, a bartlett high has been projected on the GFS on a couple of runs now. With GPs posts and chiono's in the stratosphere thread it certainly looks like my prediction of a cold snap mid december is very unlikely now, this has got late autumn / early winter 1994 written all over it although we finally got going in the XMAS holiday with a Northerly from memory and i think thats the best we wil do this year. See you all when things pick up.

My own view on the LRF business ties in with the Met Office quotation on the BBC site which is in their own words 'The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster'. May add a bit longer for stuck in a rut patterns such as these but not 6 weeks myself. There are so many variables to consider. At the moment they arent on our side which is why I dont envisage anything much colder than average before the month is out. Before the chaos theory comes in to play, and of course in recent years we have learned to expect the unexpected

Of course the 06z was, as expected, another mild run, the op was the mildest at the end [with some support] though some ensemble variation towards the end. think we will have to bide our time for a few days longer to see if any of the variables make their way closer to us. Fair way to go yet

But to make a proper cold even a decent possibility we need to see at least half of the suite trending between -5 and -10 850mb temps and hardly any have trended lower than -5 this autumn yet on the GEFS model anyway.

[nick sussex]

Not much has changed in the output since i last posted, a bartlett high has been projected on the GFS on a couple of runs now. With GPs posts and chiono's in the stratosphere thread it certainly looks like my prediction of a cold snap mid december is very unlikely now, this has got late autumn / early winter 1994 written all over it although we finally got going in the XMAS holiday with a Northerly from memory and i think thats the best we wil do this year. See you all when things pick up.

But to make a proper cold even a decent possibility we need to see at least half of the suite trending between -5 and -10 850mb temps and hardly any have trended lower than -5 this autumn yet on the GEFS model anyway.

I can understand the downbeat nature of this forum regarding colder prospects but people should realize that cold weather can happen inspite of poorish teleconnections and also the reverse, how many times have we seen supposedly great factors for cold scuppered by a previously unforeseen variable.

I'll admit the output is dismal at the moment in terms of wintry weather but cold might still occur with the Euro high, it won't be proper upper level cold but more surface if it does indeed appear.

We could be in the situation this winter with the better synoptics later on, as opposed to last year where we all gorged ourselves on a month of fun and had one long hangover for January and February which were so tedious and increasingly mild.

[wolvesfan]

Hello all,

There seems lots to be downbeat about if like me you are a lover of the cold,but the conclusion i have come to from carefull consideration from what's being said at the moment is,we might not be going to see record breaking prolonged cold spells but cold is still highly possible, e.g. NW incursions if we see the atlantic win out and also inversion cold from a better positioned european antcyclone,these just two possibility's but i'm sure the list is endless.the pattern does seem to be pretty set at the moment but as others have said it will vary and is still capable of producing cold weather.my glass is deffinatly half full.

[scotty_boy_winter]

I'm a coldie btw! I love the snow. Thanks for the reply

SBW, we may get stuck in this southerly rut for months, it won't get colder then. I'll post a monthly outlook Monday [maybe Tues] and that will suffice. I just suggest that last week of Nov is when we could see onset of colder conditions. Pressure pattern should be in more favourable orientation and I haven't suggested a freeze or blizzards etc but a marked change to the very mild conditions. As I have also said too that I am not convinced that it will be a longterm onslaught as per last year and I am tending towards RJS view point at present. Models in FI flirt on and off with this idea, but it remains in deep FI. Its why I posted in response to Chinio that models to be revisited back end of this week to see where we are...last week of Nov will be 'in sight' on the models and not so deep FI, although still in FI. Folk will always tend to go with a forecast or forecaster who is inadvertently supporting their view. Two weeks is a long time, a month a very long time in forecasting.

[snowfall09]

Although the models continue to show a fairly mild output i can personally say i feels far from mild here in Folkstone. 6.9c at the moment and we haven't got above 9c for two days now.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The models are not great at the moment for cold, though we could get some surface based cold if the Euro High edges towards us a bit more.

I think people need to calm down though, it is the 15th November, still two weeks away from the START of winter.

What we had last year was very unusual and was always unlikely to repeat itself and probably won't do for 25-50 years!

The coldest CET months are always in January and February, as has been said previously, this winter could be a reversal of last with the cold later on.

[feb1991blizzard]

I can understand the downbeat nature of this forum regarding colder prospects but people should realize that cold weather can happen inspite of poorish teleconnections and also the reverse, how many times have we seen supposedly great factors for cold scuppered by a previously unforeseen variable.

I'll admit the output is dismal at the moment in terms of wintry weather but cold might still occur with the Euro high, it won't be proper upper level cold but more surface if it does indeed appear.

We could be in the situation this winter with the better synoptics later on, as opposed to last year where we all gorged ourselves on a month of fun and had one long hangover for January and February which were so tedious and increasingly mild.

Dont worry, im far from writing off the winter as a whole yet but the only synoptics that include mild uppers that float my boat is a battleground event and you still need some sort of height rise to the North East to achieve that. I still look at the models every day but rather than be the doom and gloom merchant i just dont post very often until things pick up.

[Uncle_Barty]

Morning all,

Appologies for this question but i am a mere novice,

The above chart which i'm using as an example,to me shows a better amplified wave pattern pattern which started in the pacific,would i be correct in thinking this is what we need to see in regards to a change in the pattern we are experiencing at the moment?,thanks for any replies.

It would certainly be a start... even though it's 15 days away so pretty much equivilant to guesswork.

If that pattern starts to show itself consistently from run to run, and across the models and 8-10 days away then I would take the view that a pattern change is more than a possibility. It would then be down to where the upper trough/ridge pattern settles. As we have seen over the past few weeks, if it settles in the wrong position for coldies, then it's back to mild. The particular setup shown above would favour quiet, probably rather chilly conditions, colder in the east, but very probably dry everywhere.

Edited November 15, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[bobbydog]

as far as i can see, the GFS seems to be swinging between mild and cold towards the end of the runs. certainly a different pattern to the one we are in. looks like some interesting evolutions being thrown into the mix. most runs do show europe getting colder and i thought the 00z was better opportunity for more seasonal weather. as i have said previously, its not necessarily what will happen but it shows what could happen.

Edited November 15, 2011 by bobbydog

[Backtrack]

Although the models continue to show a fairly mild output i can personally say i feels far from mild here in Folkstone. 6.9c at the moment and we haven't got above 9c for two days now.

Yes that's because we're under a cool Easterly flow and it's brought the temperatures down to around average for November, but there will be change afoot tomorrow, wind swinging to the South East, followed south. Meaning that temperatures will once again be on the mild side.