Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I don't know, but these were 2 full cages. I guess the tabloid press are partly to blame with their claims of -20C by the end of November. These stories spread quickly and all sorts of people readily believe that it will happen if it was on the front of the Express.

LOL I doubt supermarkets base there buying patterns on reading the newspapers. Surely it's just the time of year where people would start buying de-icer in readiness for winter and nothing more than that. Looks like a bit of tabloid hype going on in here trying to make a story out of nothing.

[wolvesfan]

Morning all,

It's now looking likely we are shortly entering a more active spell of weather,GFS,ECM UK met,all agreeing in principal to a more zonal spell aproaching the uk.we could also see temps well below recent values and indeed could well drop below average for northern areas bringing the first wintry PPN if GFS 6z verified.novembers end could be quite a contrast to the begining of the month.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z looks like a cold outlier with -10 T850 hPa approaching northern scotland around the end of the month , even on this colder run there is mild air to the southwest of the uk so the whole set up looks far from solid and only scotland has a risk of snow, and that mainly on hills.

Edited November 19, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[ribster]

I wonder who provides Morrisons with their forecast/demand planning info, someone with their head in the stars perhaps?

Perhaps a professional with vastly superior knowledge to the majority of amateurs on here. But I fail to see what relevance a supermarket doing what it does every year, i.e. stocking up on seasonal goods has to do with the model discussion, besides, my windscreen has been iced up 3 mornings this week!

[Bobby]

There might be little hope for cold but at least there's some interesting seasonal weather to look forward to, some places might get some much needed rain also. That storm showing up for next week is one to keep an eye on...

[bobbydog]

not that its on topic, but to save further speculation, morrisons apparently use netweather. (this was inadvertently revealed on the 'will it snow?' programme)

[Gord]

I'm quite pleased with the current model output. Cold would be nice this time of year but to get something more seasonal than what we've had would be great. Hopefully during the next 4 weeks we should get some wet and windy weather with a couple of frosts somewhere in between. For me...that's a result right now, even if it does settle into that pattern for 2-4 weeks, it'll at least be something different and with plenty of time left for cold.

Also a good chance of pleasant sunny spells between weather systems. I think things are starting to look up a bit!

[The PIT]

ha hum storm back in on the latest run and very close to the reliable time frame. Quite a progress run this 06oz and if it all came off some interesting weather for all.

[SP1986]

The setup later on looks like a snow over hills in Scotland and Northern England, but little else. It's a very mobile outlook, even when the winds are blowing in from the northwest, so even with those relatively cold uppers, frost and snow would be limited.

A drop in temperatures doesn't necessarily constitute interesting weather, but certainly there were a few very windy scenarios on the last few runs that did make for some interesting potential weather scenarios.

[Frosty.]

The latest meto update is still pointing towards a CHANGE to normal weather for the back end of the month and first half of december with a growing risk of frost and some snow for the hills of northern britain, importantly there is no sign of significant cold at all so the chance of snow falling in southern britain, even on hills is close to 0%.

[November13]

Yes agreed I can't see anything coming in the next few weeks. Possibly some snow on mountains which will thaw and freeze. However it will not be enough to start a base of snow. I predict no skiing this side of the year. As said before I cannot remember a November in Scotland without some significant snow on the hills,a day or two of snowfall at low level. This is worse than the mildest novembers we had in the late eighties and they were bad.

[stewfox]

The latest meto update is still pointing towards a CHANGE to normal weather for the back end of the month and first half of december with a growing risk of frost and some snow for the hills of northern britain, importantly there is no sign of significant cold at all so the chance of snow falling in southern britain, even on hills is close to 0%.

We have had 20 posts recently most around Morrisons the super market

Yesterday FI was at best T84 or at stretch T144.

Now people are given a close to 0% chance of what will happen in T672 !

Nobody can forcast a month ahead regardless of the teleconnections in Canada.

If the met could predict a month ahead with great accuracy there would be no point having a model discussion thread.

We still in a era when the weather won't be nailed.

Edited November 19, 2011 by stewfox

[phil nw.]

With the likelehood of a more mobile pattern soon we will at least move the stubborn Sceuro High away.

It really then is case of looking for some buckling of the jet flow to allow some transient Pm air south behind passing lows.

I think that`s all cold lovers can realistically expect in such an Atlantic driven setup and a strong polar vortex.

Any real Northern blocking is a mile away at the moment with the colder than normal Strato.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

I would say the upcoming conditions are at least more seasonal with some cooler days and nights to come as the Lows eventually track right across to Scandinavia.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

At the moment the expected pattern is modelled to be too flat to dig down really cold air across the UK but a change upstream could at some point change that.

It would be much easier to evolve into an Arctic Maritime flow from there than from the current Euro blocking which has always been too far South and wrongly orientated to bring anything cold from the East.

[Cheese Rice]

The 6Z is a much needed improvement over the dire 0Z. The trajectory of the lows is more north west - south east which over past winters has brought something interesting, so I wouldn't give up any cold in early December just yet!

[Frosty.]

We have had 20 posts recently most around Morrisons the super market Yesterday FI was at best T84 or at stretch T144. Now people are given a close to 0% chance of what will happen in T672 ! Nobody can forcast a month ahead regardless of the teleconnections in Canada. If the met could predict a month ahead with great accuracy there would be no point having a model discussion thread. We still in a era when the weather won't be nailed.

Anyone can believe whatever they want, IMO the 6z was a cold outlier and won't verify anything like that and the meto were sensational during the big freeze last december so a change to average weather seems logical following one of the most boring autumns on record.

[lorenzo]

144 is indeed looking interesting. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-3-144.png?6

Its such a pleasure looking at the charts and not seeing that huge blob to our east omni present.

Very short lived incursion followed by this blowtorch http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-5-150.png?6

[La Bise]

All aboard the zonal train!

[Frosty.]

All aboard the zonal train!

well it sure aint the polar express.. I still feel it will be more of a nw /se split with wet and windy spells mostly across nw britain and high pressure never far from the south.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

@ BTFP - GFS doesn't though and to be fair ECM would be nothing to write home about, even IF it does verify. Cooler yes, much cooler questionable, but from the dizzy heights we've seen recently that would be of no consequence whatsoever anyway imo.

Well don't just look at the GFS and if you are then when you make comments of zero sign or chance of cooler or much cooler conditions then say that you are using just GFS, because ECM does show much cooler conditions.

Now carrying on 06z GFS flirts with ECM idea, plenty to watch now on the models with a mobile period approaching.

BFTP

[shedhead]

Well don't just look at the GFS and if you are then when you make comments of zero sign or chance of cooler or much cooler conditions then say that you are using just GFS, because ECM does show much cooler conditions.

Now carrying on 06z GFS flirts with ECM idea, plenty to watch now on the models with a mobile period approaching.

BFTP

It was you who earlier said ECM looked colder, I was simply pointing out the GFS wasn't singing from the same hymnsheet at the time, not that it was the only model I look at. Of course the models are going to start looking colder, it will be close to 60f in places this weekend, but as I and others have said with regard to this... it's all relative and of little consequence.

Edited November 19, 2011 by shedhead

[wolvesfan]

Hello all,

GFS 6z may be a cold outlier,but it's showing in principal likely synopsis of what a zonal flow may deliver,i think one or two might be surprised as the pattern sets up,nothing in longevity, but theres lots of cold air to our NW to tap into,and plenty of reload oppurtunity.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It was you who earlier said ECM looked colder, I was simply pointing out the GFS wasn't singing from the same hymnsheet at the time, not that it was the only model I look at. Of course the models are going to start looking colder, it will be close to 60f in places this weekend, but as I and others have said with regard to this... it's all relative and of little consequence.

Ok bud, lets move on then and lets hope this change brings at the very least some more interesting weather and charts.

BFTP

[Gavin Hannah]

I like the location of the HP in the atlantic on the ECM run. hopefully, as we get close to that time frame, the models will show it sneaking up towards greenland.

[wolvesfan]

I like the location of the HP in the atlantic on the ECM run. hopefully, as we get close to that time frame, the models will show it sneaking up towards greenland.

Its been there on the last three runs as well.

[IDO]

We have had 20 posts recently most around Morrisons the super market

Yesterday FI was at best T84 or at stretch T144.

Now people are given a close to 0% chance of what will happen in T672 !

Nobody can forcast a month ahead regardless of the teleconnections in Canada.

If the met could predict a month ahead with great accuracy there would be no point having a model discussion thread.

We still in a era when the weather won't be nailed.

Yes, no one can predict the weather in 28 days time. However models suggest trends and from them we can extrapolate the probability of future weather. The current setup is HP (seems like forever) which will move to a more mobile cool (average) zonal weather pattern. These can be extremely frustrating to shake off, possibly as much as the current HP setup. Of course as the wind direction changes as the LP's move through we will get short lived cold spurts. However this is not a scenario where we will see anything significant in terms of real cold. So the probability of a prolonged spell of cold weather in the next 28 days is low (under 10%). That's not saying we will not get a cold spell as things can change and this time tomorrow that 10% may be 20% or even 5% (those odds are my opinion and others may see more hope eg. ECM is a bit more colder trending). Many of us want a cold spell, but I am a realist and at the moment, short term variables are poor (positive NAO/AO?, strong Jetstream, Jetstream too far north, no Scandi high anywhere near to help with blocking, zonality, nothing cold in the rest of Europe, lower than needed stratospheric polar temperatures, etc). But here's hoping we get changes that improve those odds!