Winter Forecast - 2011/2012

[phil nw.]

The Daily Mail forums are full of people 'sniping' and constantly expressing their preferences of the weather. They seem to rarely look at the state of the atmosphere and stuff.

To add to that it's hard to follow that forum, so I'm firmly in the belief that I'm better off here

Sounds like that Daily Mail forum needs better moderation,-- that`s if indeed it gets any at all.

[La Bise]

IF, you best not come close to me just in case, you might catch cancer from me...

[Isolated Frost]

IF, you best not come close to me just in case, you might catch cancer from me...

Same for me I guess then, well at least 25%... of course everyone is an immigrant as people only migrated here from their parents... but thats another matter

[A Winter's Tale]

Yeah that forum was a disgrace and today was like the first time I had come across it. I'm furious at the remark on Peter O'Donnel.

[syed2878]

hey guys is the winter forecast avelable in pdf? Thx.

[lorenzo]

GP . Nailed it.

Hat's off sir fine work.

[syed2878]

I second that. Well done gp. Keep up the good work.

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, good job GP and NW in general, I'm not that unhappy with the large picture and if (as per above posts) the Daily Mail wants to taunt me, isn't that what they do with all normal people? Just wondering, because I only read newspapers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GP . Nailed it.

Hat's off sir fine work.

Not if the block and cold collapse and subside, very good upto now,,,,,big period ahead.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

The way the models are trending, it looks as though this cold spell will try to hang on for quite a while across the south while more northerly areas see a milder period. So it makes me think that a blend of the two forecasts would be even better than either one alone, even though I would readily admit that the NW/GP forecast is ahead on points to this date. The period 16-27 Jan was a waste of a good window of opportunity because the Atlantic stayed on life support while the block took its time forming. Even now the block seems more interested in reloading itself than anywhere else. I mean, 1067 mbs, c'mon let's call it done and bring it west now.

[Partholon]

The way the models are trending, it looks as though this cold spell will try to hang on for quite a while across the south while more northerly areas see a milder period. So it makes me think that a blend of the two forecasts would be even better than either one alone, even though I would readily admit that the NW/GP forecast is ahead on points to this date. The period 16-27 Jan was a waste of a good window of opportunity because the Atlantic stayed on life support while the block took its time forming. Even now the block seems more interested in reloading itself than anywhere else. I mean, 1067 mbs, c'mon let's call it done and bring it west now.

Let's not Roger. You just want your forecast for February to verify When you should be thinking of the coldies. How selfish can you be!?. Just messing with you. No offense intended

[Roger J Smith]

I would be delighted for the coldies and snow rampers if the month reloaded numerous times and there was a negative CET, blah blah, but I sense that the outcome will be mixed, milder air seems to be lurking very close to the north and west throughout the reliable time frame, while cold or very cold air is hanging around either over or close to the southeast. Could see a month with an anomaly pattern that runs from -3 in southeast to +2 in western Isles and northern Ireland at this rate. That's vaguely suggested in my wording although I am really expecting a milder pattern than that, more like a return south to southwest flow around a distant block was my forecast scenario (after the 4th that is, my research index values peak several times in late Feb).

[Partholon]

Well it's going to get milder in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles over the next 7 - 10 days. I think the accuracy of your February forecast will be ascertained thereafter. Your forecast would seemingly discount the possibility of a further reload from the north around mid month. So this period will be pivotal in determining the success of your forecast.

[bluearmy]

Are we in a position to review the january part of the forecast wrt to mean pressure/temps and actuals ??

[Glacier Point]

For a definitive steer on the forecast, please refer to the text narrative:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-summary-2011;sess=

but thought it worthwhile to see how the analogue guidance is getting on.....

January sea level pressure

Forecast:

Observed:

January temperatures

Forecast:

Observed:

February sea level pressure

Forecast:

Observed (as of 11th Feb):

February temperatures

Forecast:

Observed (as off 11th Feb):

January split into two given this was set out as pattern change

sea level pressure 1st and 2nd halves:

Winter so far - sea level pressure

Forecast:

Observed (as at 11th February):

Temperatures

Forecast:

Observed:

Overall very pleased with this. The timing of the transition from +AO to -AO was exactly mid january and the temperature and pressure anomalies are heading in the right direction. February stands a high chnace of verifivation, purely on the basis of what's in the bank so far. Some of the anomalies don't quite marry up with the forecast (eg. Jan temperature and pressure and overall pressure and temperature forecasts for parts of Europe) but this is more to do with extremities between months such as the mild first half - the key thinh here is that the monthly trends have been picked out well, that said, Scandinavia may end up a little warmer than forecast and SE Europe a lot colder than anticipated given the extreme cold record during first half feb.

Edited February 13, 2012 by Glacier Point

[TEITS]

Have to mention though GP that your forecast predicted above average rainfall for S England but so far this is way off. My average for D,J,F is 140mm but so far i've recorded only 70mm. Considering my region is already officially experiencing a drought the well below average rainfall could have dire consequences. I also feel the constant HP over the Azores resulting in the NAO being either neutral or positive has spoilt the accuracy of your forecast.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Have to mention though GP that your forecast predicted above average rainfall for S England but so far this is way off. My average for D,J,F is 140mm but so far i've recorded only 70mm. Considering my region is already officially experiencing a drought the well below average rainfall could have dire consequences. I also feel the constant HP over the Azores resulting in the NAO being either neutral or positive has spoilt the accuracy of your forecast.

The weather has a habit of paying its debts.....it'll be interesting to see if we get a very wet spell to restore balance as areas that have seen little rain will be heading for troubles if not.

[ZONE 51]

Here is something that might interest some wondering about the rainfall in the South..

Thinking about this it does seem to me a more southerly jet? and lows tracking across the south/channel.

I think the expected pattern is looking like developing.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 13 Mar 2012:

The end of February and first part of March are likely to see changeable weather. Temperatures are probably going to be around average for the time of year. Being late February/early March, this suggests that overnight frosts are still likely almost anywhere, especially during any quieter interludes. Showers and longer spells of rain are possible, with an ongoing risk of transient snow, mainly in the north and east. Rainfall amounts across southern and central England may end up being slightly above average in places by the end of this period.

(MetO forecast in quote)

Edited February 14, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[jethro]

Have to mention though GP that your forecast predicted above average rainfall for S England but so far this is way off. My average for D,J,F is 140mm but so far i've recorded only 70mm. Considering my region is already officially experiencing a drought the well below average rainfall could have dire consequences. I also feel the constant HP over the Azores resulting in the NAO being either neutral or positive has spoilt the accuracy of your forecast.

Not all of the South is suffering from a lack of rain, here in the SW, apart from the recent cold (but dry) spell, we've had endless wet conditions since the Autumn.

[Glacier Point]

Have to mention though GP that your forecast predicted above average rainfall for S England but so far this is way off. My average for D,J,F is 140mm but so far i've recorded only 70mm. Considering my region is already officially experiencing a drought the well below average rainfall could have dire consequences. I also feel the constant HP over the Azores resulting in the NAO being either neutral or positive has spoilt the accuracy of your forecast.

Dave - in the narrative:

"It should be noted that many parts of central and eastern England have received less than half the usual amounts of rainfall over the last year. The forecast rainfall will, although predicting some useful amounts in December and February, largely not rectify the deficits and there is a strong prospect for water restrictions next year unless the spring and summer deliver well above average amounts of rainfall."

Pressure has been higher than anticipated although the generall pressure arrangements not too far off, particularly in terms of the first half of the winter being dominated by a +AO / +NAO regime and the second half featuring a noticeable shift away from this towards a negative AO and NAO. Remember the forecast called for a +AO / +NAO regime for the first half of the winter, which of course it was.

This chart indicates that the NAO has become sustained negative since 21st January, thats 24 days on the bounce when the first part of the winter featured no -NAO / -AO conditions. Forecasts indicate these indices to become more neutral in the second half of Feb.

Edited February 14, 2012 by Glacier Point

[TEITS]

Have to admit GP im confused because this NAO chart is different to the one you posted.

This suggests the NAO has never been negative. I will add I personally class a negative NAO when the index drops to below -1C.

[Glacier Point]

Ignore those CPC indices for NAO - they're not representative of the pressure patterns.

If you like, the CDC set is a better guide:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png

By way of example, taking 1st Feb. Look at the H500 observed field pattern:

There is a loading pattern applied to the NAO calculation so even if the two sets of pressure were the same over Iceland and the Azores, that would equate to a -NAO given that the normal relatives are for high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.

For Feb 1st, there was a solid and strong -NAO signal, manifested in the low heights and temperatures over Europe whereas the CPC index implies a neutral NAO !

[SteveB]

Hi GP,

What's your thoughts on the ealry part of Spring. Are we looking at a cold first half, or something similar to last Spring.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Have to say, that its been a bloody excellent forecast from G.P.

The change-over and cold from a very mild first half ......... come on people, not every detail is going to be spot on, but so far this has been stunningly good.

Who else has come anywhere close to G.P's efforts ...... more staggering as it was issued back in November.

Well done sir and to date, nobody in my opinion has any room for complaint to the winter forecast you have made.

Please keep up the excellent, informative and educational work.

One very appreciative weather nut

Y.S

Edited February 14, 2012 by Yorkshiresnows

[Suburban Streamer]

Overall very pleased with this. The timing of the transition from +AO to -AO was exactly mid january

impressed with the 60 day rule here - proved to be very accurate