Winter Forecast - 2011/2012

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is there going to be a written one posted?

BFTP

[Paul]

The written presentation is available on the same page as the video.

[Paul]

The in depth version of the forecast is now available as a series of videos looking at each key element of the forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-detail-2011;sess=

[kold weather]

Superb stuff guys!

Well we'll now have to wait and see how things play out, I'd feel confident enough in the first part of the forecast, the second part is a much tougher call and really is gonna depend on a warming event.

Hmmm looking at Feb it looks alot like Jan 2006 IMO with the big cold shot through E.Europe and W.Russia and the UK cooler than average but missing out on the big mamma...

Its certainly an interesting forecast, sorta putting all our eggs into one basket with regards to getting that colder pattern!

[summer blizzard]

I agree with GP's call.

I have just been computing the AO to determine the state this winter and my data indicates that the AO will basically become ever more negative as winter progresses.

[ZONE 51]

Excellent! read the in-depth slide show presentation, very interesting and very good how its explained! il watch the in-depth videos later or tommorow.

[Aaron]

February can be outrageously cold - Colder than anything possible in December. Coldest December CET on record is -.0.8, coldest February on CET record is -1.9 Its just that we've not had much deep cold in February for a long, long time, so people have tended to become blase about what February can be like.

True. I have no idea why people think snow lasts longer in December when it simply does not.

[Great Plum]

What about 2nd February 2009?! Most parts of the south east got an absolute pasting. If that wasn't decent snow, then I don't know what is!

Indeed... My apologies! Didn't hang about as long as 91 though...

Anyway, back on topic, this is by far the most detailed forecast I've seen this year! Thank you Stewart and the team!

[snow drift]

Indeed... My apologies! Didn't hang about as long as 91 though...

Anyway, back on topic, this is by far the most detailed forecast I've seen this year! Thank you Stewart and the team!

One cannot question the detail and how clearly the forecast is presented. As a presentation it is deserving of praise.

I would ask this as I feel there is an elephant in the room.

As detailed in the forecast, most of the models are not showing what is being forecast.

Surely it is in the interest of the site that a carrot be shown at the middle/end as this would maintain people’s interest?

I love this site and the info gained, learning gained but I think this is a point that needs to be aired.

[La Bise]

What exactly are you trying to say, that NW is deliberately issuing a forecast with dud information to keep traffic on the website?

[Iceberg]

Re Feb and snow it very much depends where in the country you are.

by the last week in feb the sun gets pretty strong in the far south(i.e dorset), because of this a very very cold air mass is needed to stop it from melting over a few days.

In December though there probably isn't enough sun strength to actually melt fallen snow down here, hence when it does fall it tends to stay around longer, particularly so in Jan.

I've got a feeling futher north and definately in scotland the sun doesn't make much difference in Feb.

[Paul]

As detailed in the forecast, most of the models are not showing what is being forecast.

Surely it is in the interest of the site that a carrot be shown at the middle/end as this would maintain people’s interest?

I love this site and the info gained, learning gained but I think this is a point that needs to be aired.

Are you suggesting Stewart put the forecast together solely to 'maintain interest' this winter? If so, I can tell you 100% that is not the case - he's presented a forecast which his research and preparation has lead him to, nothing more, nothing less. The detail within the video shows this, and he even gives reasons as to why some of the long range models at least are not (at this point) picking up on the pattern that the other key indicators are.

[Polar Maritime]

Well done NW.TV. The most detailed and fully explained Winter forecast available.

[chionomaniac]

I have just had a chance to run through the 40 charts linked to the forecast. What an exemplary analysis and and reasoned explanation this is. In fact, I have not seen a forecast ever that is backed up with such research into the analog years with every factor comprehensively covered that help reach the conclusion.

Well done Stewart, I wish you the best of luck.

[leicsnow]

Re Feb and snow it very much depends where in the country you are.

by the last week in feb the sun gets pretty strong in the far south(i.e dorset), because of this a very very cold air mass is needed to stop it from melting over a few days.

In December though there probably isn't enough sun strength to actually melt fallen snow down here, hence when it does fall it tends to stay around longer, particularly so in Jan.

I've got a feeling futher north and definately in scotland the sun doesn't make much difference in Feb.

In the Midlands,

The sun does tend to heat us up to about 5C during a cold spell, although as it's clear it can bring a pretty chilly feel overnight. However this wasn't the case in Feb 2009, as we pretty much had continuous snow at some point every day from 1Feb through 13Feb, and I had three days at home from college in that period. They were unprepared as they were expecting snow earlier in December or January.

Towards the end of February, the sun does tend to heat us up to double figures assuming it's regular February air.

[snow drift]

Are you suggesting Stewart put the forecast together solely to 'maintain interest' this winter? If so, I can tell you 100% that is not the case - he's presented a forecast which his research and preparation has lead him to, nothing more, nothing less. The detail within the video shows this, and he even gives reasons as to why some of the long range models at least are not (at this point) picking up on the pattern that the other key indicators are.

Solely to "maintain interest"? No.

Challenging the "Status Quo", if not offensive, is a good thing.

I take on board your comments.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep, a great presentation and sound reasoning behind the forecast. Anyone else like to see Stewart present the BBC forecast especially when the coldest shot is approaching?

BFTP

[gottolovethisweather]

Good god, what a well detailed forecast that was.

Whatever occurs in terms of its accuracy, it matters not. Well, obviously the closer to the truth you are, the better you will feel about it.

Much respect to the NW team in producing such a fascinating and detailed analysis.

Excellent stuff.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 27, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[January Snowstorm]

GP, just one quick question. You mention in detail how you study previous years with similar patterns.

Does any one year / winter stand out as being similar to what we might expect ??

[Don]

Just been through all videos and what an excellent forecast! Well done Stewart/Netweather and really hope that the second half of Winter will deliver the goods!

[Cloud 10]

Thanks to GP for explaining things so well in the videos,a very well presented forecast.

Also thanks to Paul and the team for making it possible.

I think any coldie would be very happy with the chart below if it verified!

[Gorath]

Great forecast, very detailed, and very educational.

My only grievance is that I couldn't see where he was pointing to, because of the overlay

It does look as though my trip to the alps in early January won't be anything to write home about - but at least there's hope for my second trip there in March. So, not too bad!

[mcweather]

Re Feb and snow it very much depends where in the country you are.

by the last week in feb the sun gets pretty strong in the far south(i.e dorset), because of this a very very cold air mass is needed to stop it from melting over a few days.

In December though there probably isn't enough sun strength to actually melt fallen snow down here, hence when it does fall it tends to stay around longer, particularly so in Jan.

I've got a feeling futher north and definately in scotland the sun doesn't make much difference in Feb.

Yes the sun can be pretty strong in Dorset in the last week Feb but only if its actually shining . How about a decent snowfall followed by a cloudy cold spell.

Edited November 27, 2011 by mcweather

[sebastiaan1973]

Hi Stewart. Nice presentation.

I have placed a link to your presentation at the Belgium website weerwoord.be, the largest community of weather lovers in the Low Countries.

http://www.weerwoord...564&tid=1501564

Ben has a made a comment in this post, and I thought it might interested you.

http://www.weerwoord...099&tid=1501564

In Dutch

Ze gebruiken voor het maken van de composiet een (oude) heranalyse van NCEP. Daarbij relativeren ze niet de zwaktes van heranalyses in het algemeen en deze heranalyse in het bijzonder. Waarom worden er voor het composiet geen waarnemingen gebruikt?

Als je de twee belangrijkste heranalyses van de NCEP naast de waarnemingen zet (GISS), zie je dat de (nieuwere) 20th Century Reanalysis van NCEP een beter beeld geeft dan de heranalyse die Netweather gebruikt heeft. Het grootschalige patroon blijft hetzelfde, maar voor verwachtingen op landniveau zijn er toch her en der belangrijke verschillen (zie Spanje en IJsland bijvoorbeeld). In onze regio geeft de inschatting van NetWeather een normale winter (binnen 0,5°C van normaal over 1981-2010).

Translation in highlights

He wonders why you use the old NCEP reanalysis while there is a new one (20th Century Reanalysis). And the reason you didn't use temperatures (GISS)? In general terms the the temperature are the same but regional there are some differences.

[damianslaw]

In the Midlands,

The sun does tend to heat us up to about 5C during a cold spell, although as it's clear it can bring a pretty chilly feel overnight. However this wasn't the case in Feb 2009, as we pretty much had continuous snow at some point every day from 1Feb through 13Feb, and I had three days at home from college in that period. They were unprepared as they were expecting snow earlier in December or January.

Towards the end of February, the sun does tend to heat us up to double figures assuming it's regular February air.

Late February under a 'cold high pressure system' can still deliver widespread very low maxima, extreme examples include 1956 and 1986 - under brilliant blue skies we saw intense cooling at night with mins widely below -10 degrees and maxima struggled to hit 0 degrees. It all depends on the synoptics. Even in 2005 when uppers were less favourable maxima did struggle to get much above 4-5 degrees. Northerlies can be very very cold indeed in late feb especially in the north even under blue skies and sunshine, temps often struggle to get above 2 degrees at best..

Snow does have a harder battle to stick to low ground by late feb esp in the south - but a deep cover can be much harder to shift.