Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

[kold weather]

Partholon, its a tough call, i personally think given the state of everything out there a Scandnavian High is a little unlikely still, I'd favour a high centered close to the UK. Will probably see attempts from the Atlantic to flatten the pattern and its probably 50-50 as to whether that happens.

Remember for this sort of set-up and even a Scandinavian High you can have a powerful PV, it just makes things a little more tricky to get into.

[Cloud 10]

sorry KW - dont see that GFS is more likely to lead to cold than any of the other models. as far as ecm op is concerned, any model wanting to push upper as high as -4c in the area of svaalbard has my attention. i read that the ecm ens mean at day 10 doesnt support a scandi height rise. quite the opposite, looking at the chart attached on the post. remember that ens mean charts are always suppressed in amplification wrt operational output. any bump in mean heights represents a mean ridge and vica versa with troughs. things going on in fi to keep me interested - nothing more than that at the moment.

Lots of uncertainty in that area,and miles in FI considering the model output at the moment.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Its looking like an increasingly settled weekend next week with plenty of frost around. Some places might even record an ice day if any fog develops. With between 0 and -5 850's we should all experience a very seasonal few days.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...150/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

Edited December 4, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[kold weather]

Upper high doesn't form as well this run so probably won't last as long as the previous few runs, but yes HP does develop over the UK and give a fairly frosty set-up, though due to the upper highs formation its not as cold as the 00/06z was.

[camiscool]

18z should be interesting

[nick sussex]

No agreement at 96hrs between the UKMO and GFS, still waiting for the rest of the UKMO to come out but this looks like it could back this mornings ECM!

You have to laugh! its interesting and could go either way later, unfortunately still no resolution to next week, the models are all over the place.

Quite unbelievable the differences between the models, take a look at the GFS and UKMO for 144hrs!

Edited December 4, 2011 by nick sussex

[camiscool]

is that a good thing nick?

[dewei]

UKMO now siding with ECM!

[weathe20]

12z total bor fest from 150 hrs to the end.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

To my untrained eye this looks like the first FI easterly (of sorts) of the season from the GFS.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111204/12/324/h500slp.png

[nick sussex]

is that a good thing nick?

Yes totally as the GFS is a one way trip to a cure for insomnia! But the UKMO and if the ECM continues with its trend are high risk, its all to do with whether a shortwave will develop and cut se'wards we need the upstream pattern to remain sufficiently amplified.

It's certainly a rollercoaster, what drama!

[Weather Wizard]

Is this GP's finland high finnaly showing

Edited December 4, 2011 by Weather wizard

[kold weather]

GFS is CLOSE to getting something quite interesting, the jet is just a little too strong.

Cold run though overall from the GFS, I'd take it.

UKMO is different, not sure if its at all good long term but 144hrs could lead to some fun and games if the cold pull is strong enough at 120hrs. UKMO will almost certainly lead us back into a milder set-up by the 13-15th.

edit---UKMO probably too mild for snow at 144hrs, maybe leading edge stuff but that'd be it... however set-up reminds me a little bit of Feb 2007...

[ukpaul]

Still chilly from the 12z, possibility of some fog and a nice step towards real cold and maybe even easterlies, not bad at all in the long run and some nice stuff in the short run for those north and west too. Something for everyone.

MetO 144h looks interesting too but probably just a transitory thing in comparison.

[johnholmes]

12z total bor fest from 150 hrs to the end.

a bor fest is?

[Mole]

looking more likely that the cold weather is here to stay

[karyo]

Well, still no sign of southwesterlies and mild weather despite the stratosphere being very cold for quite some time now. I think another signal is override the cold stratosphere.

Karyo

[cyclonic happiness]

a bor fest is?

Are you getting miffed at spelling and grammar again John?

The 12z isn't too bad.

I'm annoyed at that shortwave cutting off our cold air in the first half of the run, but I'm going to enjoy a bit of frost and frog from that high (if it comes off?).

[kold weather]

Slider idea from the UKMO isn't totally without support from the GFS ensembles, most do not go with it but a few do...the worrying thing is several of those eventually have us back in a milder set-up by 180-192hrs which IMO is a real big problemn with that set-up, esp when you have a powerful PV in place as well...

HP set-up maybe less exiciting but its far safer and given the background conditions, I'd rather play it safe then play with fire and watch the whole thing backfire.

[Fozfoster]

a bor fest is?

JH its a anagram for...... be frost. Which i think on the GFS 12z there will be. Sorry its off topic but couldnt help.LOL

Edited December 4, 2011 by Fozfoster

[bluearmy]

12z total bor fest from 150 hrs to the end.

rather depends if you have been watching the output for the past few weeks. we should be looking at a few weeks of zonality according to the telecons. take a look at gfs fi from a NH perspective - take out the bias that low res generally gives to the atlantic and see if you can find anything to get interested in.

[Harsh Climate]

Slider idea from the UKMO isn't totally without support from the GFS ensembles, most do not go with it but a few do...the worrying thing is several of those eventually have us back in a milder set-up by 180-192hrs which IMO is a real big problemn with that set-up, esp when you have a powerful PV in place as well...

HP set-up maybe less exiciting but its far safer and given the background conditions, I'd rather play it safe then play with fire and watch the whole thing backfire.

lol nice little rhyme there Kold, sounds like a snoop dog lyric

Edited December 4, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[johnholmes]

Are you getting miffed at spelling and grammar again John?

nope just asking what it means

[phil nw.]

Yes some points of interest from both models.

GFS with a High wanting to go North East-suprisingly cool uppers considering it `s come from Southerly latitudes,trapping air from the previous brief Northerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

we go on to have a cold frosty spell from that and then the WAA towards Svalbard trying to inflate a Scandi. High later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

something stirring? -depends on the strength of the vortex and how much energy goes north whether this attempt fails but it can`t be dismissed as it`s hinted at in the high resolution part of the run and indeed follows on from ECM showing something similar on it`s 00z.

The UKMO on the other end has slight differences upstream earlier on and shows this at T144--prolonging the cool zonal pattern with Pm air across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Thickness maybe too high for lying snow in the south but places with elevation could see something out of that-would likely be raw and wet with perhaps sleet/cold rain for many.

As Nick S says plenty of drama with these daily twist and turns as the models try to agree on the pattern from day 4-5.

[Eskimo]

nope just asking what it means

A borefest is slang for very mundane