Poll: Which Winter Will 2011-12 Have Most In Common With?

[TEITS]

Im going to say 1947.

First time I have seen that Jan 1987 video and brings back such wonderful memories. Amazing to think 30mph winds, widespread cloud cover and yet min temps were still -7C.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't see many parallels with 1947- there was a well-developed Scandinavian high during mid-December 1946 which gave very cold but mostly dry weather, and then another one in early January 1947 which gave low temperatures and some snowfalls. It may have paled by comparison with what happened afterwards, but it was certainly colder than what we've seen so far.

The 1986/87 one strikes me as wishful thinking at present- I don't see any extensive cold pool developing over Russia and Scandinavia or more than tentative hints of Arctic highs heading towards western Scandinavia. There's still time for a lesser version of that to arise late in January or in February though.

[Methuselah]

I don't see many parallels with 1947- there was a well-developed Scandinavian high during mid-December 1946 which gave very cold but mostly dry weather, and then another one in early January 1947 which gave low temperatures and some snowfalls. It may have paled by comparison with what happened afterwards, but it was certainly colder than what we've seen so far.

The 1986/87 one strikes me as wishful thinking at present- I don't see any extensive cold pool developing over Russia and Scandinavia or more than tentative hints of Arctic highs heading towards western Scandinavia. There's still time for a lesser version of that to arise late in January or in February though.

Quite agree, Ian. Given some of the tripe currently doing the rounds, every single year is somehow made out to be an analogue of either 1947, 1963 or 1987. Sadly, it isn't so!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I see a parallel with the year 2023.

After consulting my LRF

[TEITS]

I don't see many parallels with 1947-

I was joking.

[reef]

Im not sure what winter this one will have the most in common with, but certainly the way it is going in this area it'll be the worse than 1988/89. That winter made a score of 8 on the winter index, whereas this year is still only 2.

Hopefully we'll get something in the way of frosts or snow before the end as beating that winter isnt something Ill enjoy seeing.

[Summer of 95]

I hope 1993/94, but I fear 1999/00.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't see many parallels with 1947- there was a well-developed Scandinavian high during mid-December 1946 which gave very cold but mostly dry weather, and then another one in early January 1947 which gave low temperatures and some snowfalls. It may have paled by comparison with what happened afterwards, but it was certainly colder than what we've seen so far.

The 1986/87 one strikes me as wishful thinking at present- I don't see any extensive cold pool developing over Russia and Scandinavia or more than tentative hints of Arctic highs heading towards western Scandinavia. There's still time for a lesser version of that to arise late in January or in February though.

We shall see, if it goes GPs way then its 85/6

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

We shall see, if it goes GPs way then its 85/6

BFTP

I see a parallel with 2012, Fred...

[Coast]

I would have voted Summer 2011 if there was that option........

[Essan]

Well I don't think it'll end up as mild as winter 2012/13 .....

[leicsnow]

Well I don't think it'll end up as mild as winter 2012/13 .....

What makes you think that?

[95 Degrees]

2006/07 or 2007/08, Certainly so far.

Edited January 6, 2012 by BrightInBrighton

[leicsnow]

Seems more like a winter 2007/2008 now...

No snow in December or January, a brief, I repeat VERY brief easterly in early February, surrounded by mild mush and followed by cold snaps in March and April.

Edited January 23, 2012 by Tellow

[Thundery wintry showers]

Synoptically it is starting to deviate from 1999/2000, as that winter saw mid to late January dominated by a mid-Atlantic block whereas now we are starting to see serious blocking over Russia and towards Scandinavia. Similarly, the mid-Atlantic block became a regular feature of February 1999, for those thinking of analogies with 1998/99 (though the first half of winter 1998/99 was a little snowier than what we've had so far). The 1993/94 analogue is a possibility, as the Scandinavian high played a major role in February 1994, though again the first half of this winter has generally been dominated by a milder zonal type than the first half of 1993/94.

I am also reminded a little of 2006/07, when blocking over Scandinavia became dominant in late February and we ended up with one of those "very nearly easterlies", but the UK was trapped in mild moist south to south-westerly regimes. However the first half of 2006/07 was even warmer than the first half of 2011/12.