Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

[gottolovethisweather]

I think the point is not wether he is right or wrong but he has presented two different model evolutions in a very clear and concise way. Better then 'it wont snow this year' posts. Will look forward to his next slot.

Indeed. Most folk should be able to learn from people such as the guy on the video (allegedly Simon Keeling) as long as pay careful attention to the details.

Where most folk/lurkers fail to interpret the correct output from the input on these forums would IMO be down to a number of reasons. I feel an immeasurable littering of one liners and insistent folk who have a ditch this/take this model run attitude will always tend to mislead the unseasoned model watchers.

Anyway, picking up on what was said in the early stages on the excellent video presentation (post 772 in this very thread). FI is always Fantasy Island and currently, its unsually placed at least t+120 hours, given the HIGH confidence shown by the Beeb/MetO forecasts. So, of the impending storms, its a case of how deep and into which parts of the UK they are projected to head. Watch this space!

After next week, as JH says anything could happen at this stage.

All in my humble opinion.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 10, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Ruzzi]

I did say though i can just about have the scandi high (extremely unlikely though) and i did say i could have the Brief Northerly (which certainly isnt out of the question) what i cant have, though is the full on Greeny block like last Nov / dec.

I think we're on the same wave-length tbh but, maybe our wordings have lead to a mis-understanding

[syed2878]

Thanks john for the pdf. Nice1.

[snow drift]

a jh look at the models for the next 7-10 days, sorry its a pdf format but its so much easier for me.

Reality check for model watchers-9 dec 11.pdf

Brilliant. Correct? time will tell.

What a great example of a post. I learn so much from this type of post.

[weathe20]

I'm sorry weather 20 Simon is doing just what cold lovers want, postulating,IF. The charts as I've tried to show in my pdf do not support, overall, this idea. I've tried to be objective not to look for what some folk hope for. Simon may turn out correct we have no way of knowing and will not for several days. I do agree its not a bad explanation video though.

Hes not doing what snow lovers want, he has described a scenario clearly which makes it so much easier for newbies like me to understand. He talks about what could happen and what could evolve and it is very interesting. Do you not agree on this POSSIBLE evolution?

I think the point is not wether he is right or wrong but he has presented two different model evolutions in a very clear and concise way. Better then 'it wont snow this year' posts. Will look forward to his next slot.

Thanks stewfox, gland some people got what I ment.

What is the pressure of that storm at 144 on 0z? Its so low I cant read the chart!

Edited December 10, 2011 by weathe20

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Shall we now discuss the models?!

[Simonl]

The GFS shows an almighty storm for Friday 16th which looks at first to affect the northern half of the country and then the whole of the UK! It is quite amazing the central core (excuse lack of met term) looks intense and the 528 dam line is south of the UK - driving rain/ hard sleet look likely - nasty conditions in fact. Looking colder in outlook. No blocking by the looks of it - as yet. ECM looks very similar which is also interesting....I should imagine there will be further structural damage for those areas already hit - which isn't great....

Edited December 10, 2011 by Simonl

[SnOwFeSt]

Another storm looks progged for Tues, which seems to stick around for about 24 hours. This could create more havoc in scotland/ northern England. The Friday storm looks even more frightning. As much as I like storms, I hope it downgrades, as the storm last week would pale into insignificance if that came off!

[Iceberg]

Yep, it's a shame we are not discussing the models when they show some possibly incredible weather in the next week.

Just to concentrate on the possible "storm" for this coming Friday, its still along way in chart terms but is at the T144 level now so time to start sitting up and taking notice.

The models do vary with intensity and position, however i think it's fair to say that there is model agreement on a severe low pressure suffering from RACY.

With respect to our friends in Scotland as this probably won't pack 130 mph winds it might still pack 100mph winds and for areas that rarely see it, as everywhere from the south coast to the Scotland is still very much in play. This has the potential to be a once in 20 year event if it happens to the south of country. The classic symetrical shape, the temperature divergence, the RACY as it hits the UK, i.e it probably won't be filling until it hits the north sea all indicate that this probably won't be a damp squid, a Fair few GFS ENS develop 100 mph winds along the M4 and probably 80 miles either side.

Definately the thing to watch over the next few days as the models firm up on the track.

[cyclonic happiness]

Yep, it's a shame we are not discussing the models when they show some possibly incredible weather in the next week.

Just to concentrate on the possible "storm" for this coming Friday, its still along way in chart terms but is at the T144 level now so time to start sitting up and taking notice.

The models do vary with intensity and position, however i think it's fair to say that there is model agreement on a severe low pressure suffering from RACY.

With respect to our friends in Scotland as this probably won't pack 130 mph winds it might still pack 100mph winds and for areas that rarely see it, as everywhere from the south coast to the Scotland is still very much in play. This has the potential to be a once in 20 year event if it happens to the south of country. The classic symetrical shape, the temperature divergence, the RACY as it hits the UK, i.e it probably won't be filling until it hits the north sea all indicate that this probably won't be a damp squid, a Fair few GFS ENS develop 100 mph winds along the M4 and probably 80 miles either side.

Definately the thing to watch over the next few days as the models firm up on the track.

Amazing how these storms manage to get 100mph winds over our area, but the Welsh mountains still manage to stop any rain from crossing them into our region!!

(I nee d to get over to the whining thread!)

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

wel the only chart i can view this morning is the gfs. The ensembles arent working properly, the ecm isnt working at all, the ukmo is always 3 or 4 days behind todays date, so i have no idea.Wonderfull.

[bluearmy]

wel the only chart i can view this morning is the gfs. The ensembles arent working properly, the ecm isnt working at all, the ukmo is always 3 or 4 days behind todays date, so i have no idea.Wonderfull.

what site are you looking at ? nw, two, wz, meteociel, they are all very well managed and generally up to date.

[johnholmes]

I've put a note in the, I hope, relevant area, about the problem shaun.

hi team

if you see this can you contact Paul or Ian to ask they try and sort please?

thanks

[TonyH]

This is quite interesting - particulary at the end.

Indeed that is a very interesting, comprehensive and well explained forecast, is he a trained Met man I wonder?

Enjoyed that presentation irrespective of whether it turns out the way he predicts!

[PubliusEnigma]

I think the point is not wether he is right or wrong but he has presented two different model evolutions in a very clear and concise way. Better then 'it wont snow this year' posts. Will look forward to his next slot.

Winds would be off the scale. Based on last week wind gusts in excess of 200 Mph wouldn't be out of the question over

the peaks of the Caingorms. Would such a storm strip the mountains of snow as it gets blow away. ? Could it flatten some

of Scotlands forests ? Is the centre Sub 930-920 mb ? Its the GFS so it tends to overdo the depth of the centres of winter

storms but IF it were to verify, would it be the worst ever storm to hit the UK ?

[TonyH]

Just as well its a week off and should not be so severe then.

[Frosty.]

Another stormy week ahead with the gfs 00z showing 2 storms hitting the uk and a chance of an arctic blast next weekend due to some brief mid atlantic ridging, also the gfs develops a nw/se tilted jet which would allow wintry reloads. In the week ahead there will be a lot of damaging winds and spells of torrential rain with some Pm air at times bringing wintry showers, not much in the way of mild weather expected in the next 7-10 days, it looks either cool zonal or cold for a while yet.

[shedhead]

'Winds would be off the scale. Based on last week wind gusts in excess of 200 Mph wouldn't be out of the question over

the peaks of the Caingorms. Would such a storm strip the mountains of snow as it gets blow away. ? Could it flatten some

of Scotlands forests ? Is the centre Sub 930-920 mb ? Its the GFS so it tends to overdo the depth of the centres of winter

storms but IF it were to verify, would it be the worst ever storm to hit the UK ?'

Deary me - is 'The Day After Tomorrow' back on Anytime?. Look potent alright, but 200mph+ gusts, mountains stripped of snow, flattened

forests.. a tad OTT don't you think PE?

[martinj2]

Indeed that is a very interesting, comprehensive and well explained forecast, is he a trained Met man I wonder?

Enjoyed that presentation irrespective of whether it turns out the way he predicts!

Yup......brilliant for a complete model noob like me. Thanks for taking the time to do this and lets hope the end part materialises.

[Frosty.]

Just as well its a week off and should not be so severe then.

It could be more severe, there is fairly high confidence for the 2nd storm next fri/sat and it could be similar to the one we have just had, following almost the same track across scotland and drawing in much colder air once the low pushes to the east, aided by some mid atlantic ridging the cold blast should be more potent than the current cold snap but that's not saying much.

[kold weather]

Wow GFS and ECM develop another INSANE storm this time next week, seems reasonable based on the fact we've already had one such storm. ECM is brutal for N.England whilst the GFS is severe for N.Ireland, 80-90mph sustained I'd guess, and very powerful winds for Scotland and N.England as well.

worth mentioning even south England also would get gales in that set-up, especially as the frontal passage occurs.

[lorenzo]

Well what can you say about this chart other than oooft.

[Nick F]

Although not as nasty looking as next Friday's progged deep low, need to watch for Tuesday's potential deep low too, there seems to be more uncertainty on its track than next Friday's mega low. 00z ECM has a secondary wave quickly deepening across Ireland early Tuesday before it turns into a deep low off Norway by early Weds. 06z GFS and UKMO track the low further north similar in track to last Thursday's low, GFS quite deep.

The models seem to do very well in modelling these deepening lows in strong zonal flows - sometimes picking them out as far out as t+168 or more, though the tracks are obviously refined nearer the time.

[P-M]

I'm only calling it as I see it, if i'm way off the mark then good, I hope we all get some snow before or by christmas.

No, you are calling it as the models are seeing it now however as other people need to realise (and it's frustrating for newbies) that the models do and will change. "few weeks" is a very very long time in weather terms and so maybe some moderation is required instead of definite statements.... On the other hand I do respect your posts PL but some optimism wouldn't go amiss considering winter has only just begun...

P.S I am not on about prolonged deep cold here I am talking about just even some wintry showers. We live in the British Isles and we know that severe cold not the norm for weeks and weeks on end... maybe some reality checks are needed across the board but then we have been spoilt in recent years so hardly surprising the way we all go on sometimes...

Edited December 10, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[January Snowstorm]

All can be said about the 06z for Thurs night is hurricane and for Ireland EVACUATE!!

If things came off like predicted it would be pbly the most severe storm to ever hit the country