The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[A.J]

Well the 18z is doing exactly what I expected, the southward trend, I fully expect bone dry conditions in the end with the low sliding through the channel with Southampton being as northward as it gets.

No it's not on a southward trend!...out to T60 and the track is near identical to the earlier run, it's slightly shallower & more progressive in its movement, ie it exits the channel slightly faster, but in fact the run so far shows a less marginal setup for snowfall, more likely a 6 hour window of moderate to heavy snow if it verifies

To illustrate...

GFS12z at T54 equivalent

GFS18z at T54

Edited December 13, 2011 by ajpoolshark

[MKN]

No it's not on a southward trend!...out to T60 and the track is near identical to the earlier run, it's slightly more progressive in its movement, ie it exits the channel slightly faster, but in fact the run so far shows a less marginal setup for snowfall, more likely a 6 hour window of moderate to heavy snow if it verifies!

The 18z is almost exactly the situation we would like to see, A good 6-9hours of snowfall between 9pm thurs til 6am friday with the potential for some more throughout friday although it does look like being marginal during the day. Yet to see further than friday but id expect more potential into the start of the weekend also. Of course small changes can and will almost definately occur right up until +0 so nothing set in stone.

[conor123]

No it's not on a southward trend!...out to T60 and the track is near identical to the earlier run, it's slightly more progressive in its movement, ie it exits the channel slightly faster, but in fact the run so far shows a less marginal setup for snowfall, more likely a 6 hour window of moderate to heavy snow if it verifies!

It's about 50-60 miles south on this run with Hawarden/Stoke area being the northern limit (Blackpool/Leeds on the 12z) which is great if it was indeed identical to the 18z track as we'd get a good inch or two of snow at least but the GFS always continues these southerly trends so time will tell.

The potential Cheshire Gap streamer behind the low for Friday Morning is what im watching at the moment, the problem is it comes with much milder air but the positives being temperatures should be around 0c or below.

Edited December 13, 2011 by conor123

[Staffordshire]

I just know you guys will get plastered.

[A.J]

The 18z is almost exactly the situation we would like to see, A good 6-9hours of snowfall between 9pm thurs til 6am friday with the potential for some more throughout friday although it does look like being marginal during the day. Yet to see further than friday but id expect more potential into the start of the weekend also. Of course small changes can and will almost definately occur right up until +0 so nothing set in stone.

It's nice to see that I'm not losing my marbles...lol

To Conor, look again at the LP centre, it's exactly where it should be, and on the SAME track as the 12z as posted before....No disrespect, but if you can't see that, then a visit to specsavers is in order.... :winky:

Also worth pointing out that to look for trends in the GFS ppn charts is a fools errand (they are notoriously inaccurate, even the hi-res models are not infallible when it come to the ppn spreads)

[Serendipity]

It's chucking it down here.

With rain

[MKN]

uptil 12pm sunday a potential snow to rain event coming up aswell?? Just incase wednesdays or thursdays or fridays or saturdays potential snow goes t**ts up. Cnt say theres nothing to keep an eye on this week.

Maybe not just clips the southwest based on this run, still thurs/fridays low isnt assured of in terms of position atm so thats definately FI

Edited December 13, 2011 by SnowTornado

[conor123]

It's nice to see that I'm not losing my marbles...lol

To Conor, look again at the LP centre, it's exactly where it should be, and on the SAME track as the 12z as posted before....No disrespect, but if you can't see that, then a visit to specsavers is in order.... :winky:

Also worth pointing out that to look for trends in the GFS ppn charts is a fools errand (they are notoriously inaccurate, even the hi-res models are not infallible when it come to the ppn spreads)

Oh I was on about in terms of precipitation, im still sticking to my guns on this one but I would be happy to be wrong and get snowed in aha!

[Costa Del Fal]

I can only agree with aj and SnowTornado in this thread. Other comments appear to be "toys out of the pram" issues. The 18z whilst taking the Precip perhaps a little further South, is actually a little better for snow with better conditions in place as aj said. The low will continue to jump a little North and South each run I suspect. I really dont expect the Low centre to go further South than the Channel though- basically no further South than it is now but I could be wrong but I think it would be unlikely.

On a positive note for the others and as conor rightly says so, there is very good Cheshire Gap possibilities right now and on the 18z the GFS hints at this very well. The upper winds etc look excellent for a good while.

[conor123]

Very good potential for the wind direction to be in the right place at last Friday Night & Saturday for snow showers along with uppers of -5/-6c, dewpoints and temperatures looking favourable to so if Thursdays low does indeed end up delivering the goods in the end plenty of wintry potential Thursday - Saturday Night at least.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

does turn less cold from the north on friday, but suppose all depends on the track of thursday nights low

[PolarWarsaw]

A better looking run. Hope everything comes through. I have to admit perhaps i was being slightly OTT in my negativity earlier. Stressful days for me at the moment and sometimes its nice to let a bit of negativity steam off. Just one word of warning though this time Sunday we were saying 'great snow potential between tuesday-thursday' and today's turned out to be fairly snowless. Hope it comes off though.

[conor123]

I wouldn't say theres 'toys being thrown out the pram' or anything or a major amount of negativity just a difference in opinion going on past events and knowing the GFS's history so caution to those expecting 12 hours of snow.

Edited December 13, 2011 by conor123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

another feature appeared on 18Z for sunday, but this one is too far south, but still FI

[A.J]

For all you snow starved folks here in the midlands, just to let you know that the 2011-12 winter edition of the Whiners Thread is open for business to let off some steam! :smiliz19:

[Serendipity]

It's a bit too soon to whine really I think. Hope I didn't soud negative when I posted we had rain here, just didn't want others to get their hopes up radar watching!

I'm still optimistic for one snowflake this week ;-)

[A.J]

and to confound the southerly tracking favouring posters, the hi-res NAE model has it tracking considerably further north and considerably deeper...This would change the ppn spread and winds considerably...100 mile northerly variation on this particular model run, bringing stronger winds into our region (very rough in southern counties of England) and my guess would be heavy rain, possibly turning to heavy snow along it's northern flank and back edge, but rain for most of us

Expect many twists and turns to come over the next 24-36 hours!

[marksp]

good posts tonight, 18z shows uppers between -6 to -5 maybe a -4 for 6 to 9 hours with plenty of ppn around, I also have noticed the streamer being shown later on but as others have said the uppers start at 6.00am at 4 to5 and quiclky chased out with milder air, plenty to keep the interest going, the coldest temps on the 18z are just before any ppn comes in from the NW TO SE so it shows potential for plenty snow.

could be some nice suprises over next few days, (if its snow you want)

:smilz38:

[BlueHedgehog074]

The snow potential seems to gradually get better, and better with every run. Almost feels as though we are making up for the mild/warm October and November we had. I agree that elements within the weather for the next few days could still change, though.

[PolarWarsaw]

Blimey i feel sick in preparation of the rollercoaster we're going to be on between now and Saturday.

[Summer of 95]

3 mixed rain/sleet showers here today, all characterised by starting off as rain about 5C, dropping to 3C and turning to sleet then petering out.There's obviously cold air up there, I just wish the temperature would drop at ground level once the fronts/showers clear. Yet again we have a crystal clear night with the temperature refusing to drop- at least 5 times this month we've had it clear at 5C at 6pm, clear at 3C at 6am. No frosty nights means no settling snow, in my experience.

[A.J]

Some beefy looking showers coming out of wales now approaching the west midlands (should arrive within the hour) very interested to see what type of ppn falls from these, could get lucky and get a dusting?

[Costa Del Fal]

Heres what ive posted in the Model thread on how very divided the models are on the Precip for Thursday Night. 50% suggest snow/rain and 50% seem to be no precip at all in England and it all being in France!

"Just ploughing through the ensemble charts, it is very divided over whether Precip affects England/Wales or stays over France. Very 50/50 it seems right now on that. ECM keeping pretty much all precip over France meaning a possible dry Thursday night for most. But a pretty much equal number of members showing snow potential for Central England and on the back edge as it clears SE."

This just shows there is still great model variability and so to call one situation as set in stone would be very wrong at this stage. Its encouraging that the UKMO and NAE are keeping the snow potential at least for now though.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Blizzards

[conor123]

3 mixed rain/sleet showers here today, all characterised by starting off as rain about 5C, dropping to 3C and turning to sleet then petering out.There's obviously cold air up there, I just wish the temperature would drop at ground level once the fronts/showers clear. Yet again we have a crystal clear night with the temperature refusing to drop- at least 5 times this month we've had it clear at 5C at 6pm, clear at 3C at 6am. No frosty nights means no settling snow, in my experience.

It's been the same here this month, plenty of crystal clear nights kept above freezing by the strong winds, its been hovering between 4-5c all evening here so far with no sign of dropping.

[weirpig]

Winds really picked up here now howling down the chimney and just to pick up ajs point some showers heading this way