The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Hughsey]

Do the BBC have a youtube channel or anything for up to date video forecasts?

edit: doesnt matter found national one for 6 oclock on the BBC website.

Edited December 14, 2011 by hughsey

[Derbyshire_snow]

This is the first time in years I can recall Leicester having a primary position in any sort of significant weather event. Still too far out to call for definite on what appears to be a marginal event though. I'm trying not to get too excited just yet.

What height are people at here ?

Only 96m ASL here About 2 miles south of me is up to 140m ASL, so i know where i'm driving to come Thurs/Fri !

Bardon Hill at 278M ASL!!

Should be the place to head for you mate in Coalville

&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf"]http://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=442500&y=313500&z=120&sv=coalville&st=3&tl=Map+of+Coalville,+Leicestershire+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

[kmanmx]

Do the BBC have a youtube channel or anything for up to date video forecasts?

edit: doesnt matter found national one for 6 oclock on the BBC website.

Middle right of the page, theres a forecast from 6pm that seems pretty much identical to the forecast on the BBC at 6:30pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Snow seems to be across most of us by 1am. Those on the eastern side of the west midlands and western side of the east midlands look like they are in a good place. I don't know the technical term but it almost seems to twist on that spot until 6 to 8am. According to that forecast a good 6 hours of Snow, seems optimistic ?

Bardon Hill at 278M ASL!!

Should be the place to head for you mate in Coalville

http://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=442500&y=313500&z=120&sv=coalville&st=3&tl=Map+of+Coalville,+Leicestershire+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

While tempting i'm not sure I want to drive that far in my little 10 year old Volkswagen Polo if theres the potential for half a foot of snow

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[MKN]

BBC Forecast for those that mised it.

Also showed it from 10pm right through til 8am onwards, Seems to be similar to the nmm output which had it as snow slightly earlier than the other models, so will be interesting to see tonights output from that.

Also the strength of the wind hasnt been mentioned much, drifting and at time blizzard like conditions could be possible if all goes as forecast

Edited December 14, 2011 by SnowTornado

[marksp]

just been in the Yorkshire thread, always worth checking for me, 20 miles south of Sheffield, 50 miles north Birmingham.

some in there quoting 35% chance of heavy snow for south yorks, so any miles further south should increase risk.

Sarah Blizzard bigging it up on east mid news, so getting ready for the 6.50pm update

:D

[Backtrack]

BBC Forecast for those that mised it.

Pinch of salt needed. Uppers will be marginal.

That chart shows heavy snow over me in NW England, where as the NMM has rain over me.

I wouldn't get your hopes up really.

[Hughsey]

Just out of interest, now that we are under 36 hours away from the event, could things still completely change and we see rain and nobody see anything wintry apart from on the hills?

Edited December 14, 2011 by hughsey

[kmanmx]

Well atleast if it doesn't snow this thread has certainly been exciting

Just out of interest, now that we are under 36 hours away from the event, could things still completely change and we see rain and nobody see anything wintry apart from on the hills?

Definitely. This storm seems to be unpredictable at best.

Judging by the way the predictions have gone so far I wouldn't wager more than 50% certainty in the forecasts IMO.

Pinch of salt needed. Uppers will be marginal.

That chart shows heavy snow over me in NW England, where as the NMM has rain over me.

I wouldn't get your hopes up really.

Ofcourse. I'm usually quite realistic, tend not to get over excited about these things. I know it could swing one way or the other though. Still, it's hard not to get excited.

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[MKN]

Middle right of the page, theres a forecast from 6pm that seems pretty much identical to the forecast on the BBC at 6:30pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Snow seems to be across most of us by 1am. Those on the eastern side of the west midlands and western side of the east midlands look like they are in a good place. I don't know the technical term but it almost seems to twist on that spot until 6 to 8am. According to that forecast a good 6 hours of Snow, seems optimistic ?

While tempting i'm not sure I want to drive that far in my little 10 year old Volkswagen Polo if theres the potential for half a foot of snow

imo theres some significant differences between those 2 forecasts, the one online has bulk of the snow much further north than the one shown on tv at 630

[cyclonic happiness]

Just out of interest, now that we are under 36 hours away from the event, could things still completely change and we see rain and nobody see anything wintry apart from on the hills?

Yep, it could and probably will go pear shaped as it has done for every 'snow event' for the last 3 years for the middle of the Midlands.

I shall only be happy once there is heavy snow falling and settling, but we are long over due some good luck in the snow department.

[kmanmx]

imo theres some significant differences between those 2 forecasts, the one online has bulk of the snow much further north than the one shown on tv at 630

On second analysis your right. Interesting seeing as they are supposedly only 25minutes apart

Yep, it could and probably will go pear shaped as it has done for every 'snow event' for the last 3 years for the middle of the Midlands.

I shall only be happy once there is heavy snow falling and settling, but we are long over due some good luck in the snow department.

You got that right. Well well well overdue.

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[Hughsey]

Well atleast if it doesn't snow this thread has certainly been exciting

Definitely. This storm seems to be unpredictable at best.

Judging by the way the predictions have gone so far I wouldn't wager more than 50% certainty in the forecasts IMO.

Ofcourse. I'm usually quite realistic, tend not to get over excited about these things. I know it could swing one way or the other though. Still, it's hard not to get excited.

Yeah this thread and the buzz certainly will be exciting for the next 48 hours or so, with more wintry weather on the weekend. Yeah I could see this storm going either way at the moment, part of me expects just to see heavy rain with those on the hills seeing the only snow, although I hope Im wrong.

Excited though

[cyclonic happiness]

No-one seems to be mentioning that little feature that is crossing Ireland as we speak and is on a bee line for the Midlands.

Looks like a small low pressure and even the mighty Welsh mountain shouldn't be able to kill off and precipitation so whatever is falling, should reach us?

But what will it be....... rain....snow.....snain?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[Hughsey]

No-one seems to be mentioning that little feature that is crossing Ireland as we speak and is on a bee line for the Midlands.

Looks like a small low pressure and even the mighty Welsh mountain shouldn't be able to kill off and precipitation so whatever is falling, should reach us?

But what will it be....... rain....snow.....snain?

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

Just noticed that, but couldnt work out if it would just fizzle out or not over Wales, certainly wont be reaching me anyway. Would think it would be sleet if temps around the Midlands are the same as here (2.1 degrees).

[kmanmx]

No-one seems to be mentioning that little feature that is crossing Ireland as we speak and is on a bee line for the Midlands.

Looks like a small low pressure and even the mighty Welsh mountain shouldn't be able to kill off and precipitation so whatever is falling, should reach us?

But what will it be....... rain....snow.....snain?

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

Good spot but from watching the radar regularly those blobs of rain have a funny habbit of vanishing around birmingham or sligthly prior. They don't seem to get to far. Though they're quite away off, might not even reach us.

[Harsh Climate]

No-one seems to be mentioning that little feature that is crossing Ireland as we speak and is on a bee line for the Midlands.

Looks like a small low pressure and even the mighty Welsh mountain shouldn't be able to kill off and precipitation so whatever is falling, should reach us?

But what will it be....... rain....snow.....snain?

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

I think it will have a sector of air just too mild associated with it, anything from the irish sea in this kind of flow usually does.

The snow in central areas is going to be a classic evaporative cooling event, a term used too freely on these forums. I think in many places it will be rain to start with, then due to the heaviness of it, the temperature will drop and it will turn readily to snow.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[Costa Del Fal]

much of the region except N Shrops, N Staffs and Derbys - but it isn't - and there is no guarantee that it will turn to snow anywhere.

Oh how ive missed that famous quote. :lol:

[MKN]

Good spot but from watching the radar regularly those blobs of rain have a funny habbit of vanishing around birmingham or sligthly prior. They don't seem to get to far. Though they're quite away off, might not even reach us.

It was shown on the bbc forecast at 630 as rain clearing away tomorrow morning

[A.J]

Oh how ive missed that famous quote. :lol:

I really wish I could like this! ...lol

[cyclonic happiness]

There seems a lot of misplaced excitement because the BBC have produced a chart with whilte on it - if you read the actual text of the METO forecast, then that is likely to be closer to reality. If this system were bumping into cold air then there would be massive potential for much of the region except N Shrops, N Staffs and Derbys - but it isn't - and there is no guarantee that it will turn to snow anywhere.

some ofthe best snowfalls we have ever had in the Midlands have been with the sort of setup being shown, remember the 9th december 1990 'the great midlands blizzard'? that was showing rain in that evening during the weather forecast and the next day, we woke up to two and half feet of snow!!!

I will reserve judgement until the time and if we don't get snow at least we'll be getting the much needed rain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh how ive missed that famous quote. :lol:

I was just about to comment on that very quote. I don't know what his beef is with these areas.

[kmanmx]

It was shown on the bbc forecast at 630 as rain clearing away tomorrow morning

Makes sense. Need that rain to bugger off.. dry ground come friday please. But realistically there is a 98% chance of that not happening.

I expect the track to be further South on subsequent runs, with the core of the PPN heading from Mid-Wales towards Leics/Nothants, but people hoping for falling snow are likely to be diappointed and I would see very little chance of settling snow on sodden ground. The last time I saw that in dramatic fashion was the previously mentioned Dec 90 event.

I wasn't even thinking about it settling. We barely see snow falling around these areas, settling is just a bonus.

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[MKN]

Ok the east mids forecast did the usual bbc trick of rain with snow in it for large areas, west of leicester more generally snow though, still poor forecast really, no detail at all

[A.J]

I was just about to comment on that very quote. I don't know what his beef is with these areas.

A bad experience is Stafford maybe?..mind you, wouldn't surprise me, I've had many a bad experience in Stafford and then ................. :w00t:

[Higher Ground]

If we don't get a covering of snow here on the Lickey Hills i will be disappointed....