Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[geoffw]

Quite a few 06z GEFS members still have Friday's low tracking across northern Britain:

Though given the spread in solutions for the low's track, there is alot of model uncertainty, which is probably down to how the trough and jet coming off of NE Canada phases and interacts with the developing low over the Atlantic on Thursday. The low seems to develop ahead of another system moving off the Eastern Seaboard mid-week, as a cold trough and strong jet comes off NE Canada and interacts with the steep themal gradient west of the Azores mid-week.

The low looks to have some rather warm (for early winter) Tm air wapping up into it as it arrives to the SW - with much colder air in contrast on its northern flank, so there is potential for some explosive development - it's whether it will deepen rapidly over the UK or further east. The models aren't too developmental with the low this morning, but there is perhaps potential for rapid cyclogensis near the UK, given the steep thermal gradient and a strong jet along it.

Quite a few 06z GEFS members still have Friday's low tracking across northern Britain:

Though given the spread in solutions for the low's track, there is alot of model uncertainty, which is probably down to how the trough and jet coming off of NE Canada phases and interacts with the developing low over the Atlantic on Thursday. The low seems to develop ahead of another system moving off the Eastern Seaboard mid-week, as a cold trough and strong jet comes off NE Canada and interacts with the steep themal gradient west of the Azores mid-week.

The low looks to have some rather warm (for early winter) Tm air wapping up into it as it arrives to the SW - with much colder air in contrast on its northern flank, so there is potential for some explosive development - it's whether it will deepen rapidly over the UK or further east. The models aren't too developmental with the low this morning, but there is perhaps potential for rapid cyclogensis near the UK, given the steep thermal gradient and a strong jet along it.

when can we pin detail down?

[Jimmyh]

those charts posted above just show the true volatility of the current evolution of this monster storm. Hence the met office still have not changed their countrywide warnings.

Expect some more changes after tonights little episode has passed through. I doubt if it will really be known until 24 hours before it is due to make inroads accross northern parts

All of them still look savage

[Nick F]

when can we pin detail down?

Probably by T+36 hours out!

[Harry]

Someone mentioned to me, that the strength of this storm is determined quite a lot by the azores high. The higher the high pressure the steeper the gradient between the two pressure systems, and Harry - Mr storm lover! Welcome back again! LOL

Hehe yo!! I'm so busy with work and studies at the moment my opportunities for getting on here are slim!

Yes the strength of adjacent areas of High pressure will indeed come into play, which for all intents and purposes help fuelling the depressions. The concerning element of the low for later this week is the proximity of warm sub-tropical air to the south of the jet stream with bitterly cold polar air to the north of the jet stream. As the disturbance interacts with the particularly strong jet and you get the mix of warm moist air with very cold drier air from the poles, with the result being a explosive deepening (and the potential 'bomb' scenario).

Try looking at the synoptics of the great storm (87) and the Burns Day storm (90). You will notice some stark similarities with the charts modelled for this week!

Edited December 12, 2011 by Harry

[helen of the north]

judging by the T-120 meto chart we've got NE or maybe NNE winds gusting maybe 70mph ish at best up here? Still not great at judging to within the tens of mph by closeness of isobars yet but, that's my guess. Going by the track between the T-96 and T-120 it is passing well south of us now, eye through southern scotland whereas few days ago it had progged us to take the eye over northern scotland.

[Jimmyh]

Hehe yo!! I'm so busy with work and studies at the moment my opportunities for getting on here are slim!

Yes the strength of adjacent areas of High pressure will indeed come into play, which for all intents and purposes help fuelling the depressions. The concerning element of the low for later this week is the proximity of warm sub-tropical air to the south of the jet stream with bitterly cold polar air to the north of the jet stream. As the disturbance interacts with the particularly strong jet and you get the mix of warm moist air with very cold drier air from the poles, with the result being a explosive deepening (and the potential 'bomb' scenario).

Try looking at the synoptics of the great storm (87) and the Burns Day storm (90). You will notice some stark similarities with the charts modelled for this week!

that is something that had caught my eye as well are we talking about something that could get as bad as that????

if so then everyone could be in the firing line of this.

I also think that the other concerning thing is if it develops before or after crossing land

[Sprites]

If you have any hot air balloon trips arranged for this week, might have to re-book.

[johnholmes]

judging by the T-120 meto chart we've got NE or maybe NNE winds gusting maybe 70mph ish at best up here? Still not great at judging to within the tens of mph by closeness of isobars yet but, that's my guess. Going by the track between the T-96 and T-120 it is passing well south of us now, eye through southern scotland whereas few days ago it had progged us to take the eye over northern scotland.

see the link/chart below Helen and anyone else interested-hope it helps

[Team Jo]

Met office warnings have changed again folks: Looks like rain is the bigger factor now...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

[Coast]

Met office warnings have changed again folks: Looks like rain is the bigger factor now...

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Exactly as been prog'd on here for a while, but as interested bystanders, we don't have the nations safety at risk and I can fully understand the MetO' caution until things get closer and clearer.

I'm just a little concerned as to how Friday is slowly paining out......

[The PIT]

RIP Fridays storm.

So lets look at Tomorrow and wind possible snow on Wednesday. Gusts up 60 mph - 70 mph and mainly for Southern Scotland again. At the moment it is.

[Harry]

RIP Fridays storm. So lets look at Tomorrow and wind possible snow on Wednesday. Gusts up 60 mph - 70 mph and mainly for Southern Scotland again. At the moment it is.

RIP Friday's storm?

[helen of the north]

thanks john, thats very helpful, will save image as a guide to go by. Thanks,

[Nick F]

Wouldn't lay to rest Friday's storm just yet!

[Gorath]

It's Monday/Tuesday's storm that's been downgraded, in terms of caution.

[Marie]

local radio station news has just been on ,they said southeast is going to be hit hard tonight with gales.So i looked at the meto to see that they have taken warnings away for winds its just rain that will be the problem.Confused.com lol

[Lauren]

I heard that as well. Se supposed to get a battering with gale force winds, heavy rain and possibly tornadoes, yet MetO is pretty quiet. I imagine the radio may be exagerrating things.

[gottolovethisweather]

Whatever comes of the storm, wind, sleet or snow, the rain is coming in on mass.

Flooding possible? certainly by the end of the week.

Soggy Regards

gottolovethisweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think the met are trying to figure out where the strongest winds are going to be and issue a warning for that...Currently the rain is pretty obvious where it is going to fall....

[Bluebreezer54]

Its certainly a volatile period of weather this week, one way or the other.

[Marie]

well the lovely blue sky has now gone,looks like we could be getting rain soon.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

well the lovely blue sky has now gone,looks like we could be getting rain soon.

The real rain is tonight..But there are a few showers flirting with the south coast atm

[Luke]

No idea what to expect here, so I will just wait and see.

Weather warning for snow here (right on the edge) on Tuesday/Wednesday

[Darren Bown]

Meto have updated their warnings with a quite widespread snow, rain and wind threat tonight and tomorrow!

[WaitingForMackerel]

Raining now, wind gone from 18mph to 35mph southerlies in the last hour, pressure falling. Here we go !

Edited December 12, 2011 by Treiagonaut