Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[pyrotech]

I am slightly confused...IF the low was to track futher south then The south would be blasted by high winds 50-60mph inland 70mph on the coast..Like the other night..BUT..IF the low goes North so Wales then up North then Inland would soo 80MPH along with the coast that would see maybe 90mph?????

Two reasons

1 Highest winds are to the South of the system

2 Further North it goes more intense the system is likely to be

Its all open at the moment, its deepening now faster than latest forecasts.

The two tracks are general tracks and somewhere between those two are what Meto expect at moment as most likely. so in that situation something in between the two weather forecasts for those tracks are likely regarding wind, rain and snow. But other scenarios could still happen

[Mapantz]

The Met Office have released another video. They are confident now that will miss the Southern England, and the wind watches have been confined to Southern coastal counties. Breezy and wet down here i would say.

[PeterDoswell]

The Met Office have released another video. They are confident now that will miss the Southern England, and the wind watches have been confined to Southern coastal counties. Breezy and wet down here i would say.

that is not what the forecast just said on bbc

southern england braced for 70mph - 80mph gusts with snow to the northern edge of the low regardless of scenario 1 or 2

[Mapantz]

that is not what the forecast just said on bbc

southern england braced for 70mph - 80mph gusts with snow to the northern edge of the low regardless of scenario 1 or 2

See for yourself ..

[Liam J]

Snow, gales and heavy rain in the mix, certainly some Interesting weather coming up for you guys in the south for a change, lots to talk about on here.

Blizzards may be on the cards for some of you!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[johnholmes]

The Met Office have released another video. They are confident now that will miss the Southern England, and the wind watches have been confined to Southern coastal counties. Breezy and wet down here i would say.

which video are you referring to please?

the only one I've seen is Lara timed at 1259 and I do wish once again that folk would either give the link or actually quote was said NOT their version of it. this is the link so folks please watch and listen; perhaps there is another video from the senior man-not seen it so owuld be grateful if anyone has such a link

thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

[lorenzo]

Some more satellite imagery.

The Satrep chart highlights the activty west of Ireland.

GOES East Satellite up close to the LP.

Composite chart of the Atlantic with an overlay of the Jet Stream as programmed by the 06z NOGAPS run. ( Yes I know all about this models reputation but it is a good image!)

[Mapantz]

I posted the link five minutes ago ..

Despite what Laura Tobin showed all through her forecast, the end result was 'still some uncertainty' So i would say her forecast was done using model data from this morning, whereas the Chief Forecaster probably did that video with more up to date runs.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Mapantz

[weatherobsuk]

That's a hell of a lot of moisture inhibition, all the way up from the Caribbean to Iceland almost.

[Liam J]

I can't see gusts of 80mph occurring with the very strongest winds kept out over the channel, the very extreme coastal areas may experience 60-65mph perhaps 70mph in very exposed locations.

[johnholmes]

which video are you referring to please?

the only one I've seen is Lara timed at 1259 and I do wish once again that folk would either give the link or actually quote was said NOT their version of it. this is the link so folks please watch and listen; perhaps there is another video from the senior man-not seen it so owuld be grateful if anyone has such a link

thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

just seen your link-many thanks

so watch and listen folks

I heard the word severe gales only for Channel coasts and he did make quite a lot of the evaporative type snowfall for a considerable part of the Midlands, N and central Wales along with perhaps further south than the Midlands.

my view only so please watch and make your own minds up on how it may affect where you live.

They/he, but a lad when I retiured (!) does seem reasonably confident now.

Edited December 14, 2011 by johnholmes

[PeterDoswell]

I posted the link five minutes ago ..

i watched the video . interesting . as minutes before laura tobin gave two scenarios indicating 70mph or 80mph gusts

[pyrotech]

which video are you referring to please?

the only one I've seen is Lara timed at 1259 and I do wish once again that folk would either give the link or actually quote was said NOT their version of it. this is the link so folks please watch and listen; perhaps there is another video from the senior man-not seen it so owuld be grateful if anyone has such a link

thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Hi John this is

sorry was too slow Edited December 14, 2011 by pyrotech

[Midlands Ice Age]

Some more satellite imagery.

The Satrep chart highlights the activty west of Ireland.

GOES East Satellite up close to the LP.

Composite chart of the Atlantic with an overlay of the Jet Stream as programmed by the 06z NOGAPS run. ( Yes I know all about this models reputation but it is a good image!)

For GTLTW:

Laura (Bless her) suggested the hook onn the eastern Atlantic radar chart is the low in question.

She also reported that it was deepening more quickly than expected and had crossed the 1000Mbs line aleady. Much earlier than expected at this time.

Does it mean it will be worse than people seem to be expecting?.

MIA.

[Mapantz]

It does seem a little disappointing i guess, but there's still time for slight changes. Either way, they'll be allsorts of elements getting thrown at us. Particularly this evening and tonight. Hail/thunder, tornado potential again too.

I'm on my 6th hail storm of the past 24hrs lol

Enjoy what we get anyway! It could end up pretty dull and boring over the xmas period.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Mapantz

[Liam J]

For GTLTW:

Laura (Bless her) suggested the hook onn the eastern Atlantic radar chart is the low in question.

She also reported that it was deepening more quickly than expected and had crossed the 1000Mbs line aleady. Much earlier than expected at this time.

Does it mean it will be worse than people seem to be expecting?.

MIA.

Everything is going to plan imo, looking at the various models the pressure should be around 995mb already so I'm not really sure what point she was trying to make?

[Polar Bear]

That will be down to your discretion on the day PB, the strongest gusts will affect the coastal areas and exposed locations, it was gusting in excess of 70mph here yesterday I just tried to carry on as normal a bit difficult at times! Obviously if it was gusting 90mph then I wouldn't have been going anywhere as the difference between that and a pretty standard 60-70mph storm is quite significant.

Don't take any chances, you are not used to high winds down your way, plus if it does snow then you could be seeing blizzards!

Thanks Liam J you are right and I will make that call on the day. I think I will watch tomorrow avo and maybe think about it then - I can alwwys work down there in teh evening so I wont lose any work time!

I like to be sensible and not put others or myself or risk hence the question - if severe I will try to avoid this.

PB

[weatherobsuk]

I can see how the confusion lies in assuming the occluded front near Ireland would be our Low in question, however this is a (eventually) dissipating feature which crosses the southern half of the UK overnight tonight. The next Low behind it is the 'main event' as now being seen developing off the Newfoundland coastline into a leaf. This leaf will eventually RACY thaks to dry air ingestion at 12ut tomorrow, coming into the South...how far north/south is up to nowcasting.

[Polar Bear]

I'd advise you to leave as early as possible, assuming you don't have to come back to Newbury through a blizard on Friday.

All very much up in the air, PB.

Think you be right GTLTW - gonna try and do that. I wont be coming back on Friday. No fear . Will you take lots of photos for me instead up at newbury?

[nick sussex]

The NAE upto 42hrs looks exactly the same as the 06hrs output, I doubt that would be correct, you'd expect some minor changes:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&WMO=&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201112141200%26HH%3D42

I've noticed this a few times lately on the 12hrs.

The only other output so far this evening and not one to be alot of trust in is the GME, thats corrected the low further south from its earlier 00hrs run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0&archive=0

[Liam J]

Thanks Liam J you are right and I will make that call on the day. I think I will watch tomorrow avo and maybe think about it then - I can alwwys work down there in teh evening so I wont lose any work time!

I like to be sensible and not put others or myself or risk hence the question - if severe I will try to avoid this.

PB

Sometimes you find it isn't as bad as was forecast so you may be rather annoyed if you cancelled early only to realise you could have made the journey in the first place, assess the situation carefully and look for other reports on the conditions along the route you plan to take.

And travel prepared, this is a useful link

http://www.theaa.com/motoring_advice/seasonal/winter-checklist.html

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[knocker]

For GTLTW:

Laura (Bless her) suggested the hook onn the eastern Atlantic radar chart is the low in question.

She also reported that it was deepening more quickly than expected and had crossed the 1000Mbs line aleady. Much earlier than expected at this time.

Does it mean it will be worse than people seem to be expecting?.

MIA.

You can pick it up on the Meteosat 1200 image. I've left it full size. Courtesy NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/.

Edited December 14, 2011 by weather ship

[pyrotech]

Everything is going to plan imo, looking at the various models the pressure should be around 995mb already so I'm not really sure what point she was trying to make?

Hi Liam, looking at various charts i believe it is slightly deeper than forecast, but only by about 4 - 6mb , what really matters is if this trend continues. If it did the depth and position would change by large variable, if not then will be pretty much as models forecast.

4 - 6mb is not huge by any means but is when you look at time for the difference since forecast time. Its a watch, wait and see scenario.

I am using NAE and GFS, and fax forecast chart (24hr from yesterday) to base this on

[Mapantz]

Edited December 14, 2011 by Mapantz

[Polar Bear]

_{I understand that some public sector contingency planning team have had the warnning information from he met office advisory service}

_{In essence Meto Office are warning the councils of the two scenarios that already have been aired on the TV - with more confidence to the low tracking further north with rain turning to snow friday morning - this could be for areas as Berkshire, Buckinghamsire I.e. the worse scenario. Coule be very interesting indeed and I so think we will be now castng.}