The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[PolarWarsaw]

Well im off to bed for an early one. Hope to be up early in the morning for what's hopefully a 'happy' morning update. This is the midlands however, o that will remain to be seen.

[Costa Del Fal]

I don't think the global models have a handle on this, I'm thinking it's a 'can't see the wood for the trees' scenario. From latest satellite info it's obvious the wave is at a higher latitude than the GFS and ECM have placed it for the same timeframe. I think the NAE looks a good match for what we are seeing on the satellite at the minute. All subject to change however.

I agree. The Sat shows cloud at the same latitude as approx the very North of Northern Ireland yet the GFS has the main bulk at the latitude of the very South of Ireland! :lol: As confusing as that probably sounds things even right now dont seem to quite match some of the models. However they could be right in the end for all we know but in a situation like this, I would rather stick with the NAE/NMM etc. Right now its NAE v NMM between these two right now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I agree. The Sat shows cloud at the same latitude as approx the very North of Northern Ireland yet the GFS has the main bulk at the latitude of the very South of Ireland! :lol: As confusing as that probably sounds things even right now dont seem to quite match some of the models. However they could be right in the end for all we know but in a situation like this, I would rather stick with the NAE/NMM etc. Right now its NAE v NMM between these two right now.

There is a discrepency of around 150 miles between the GFS and the actual observed satellite data- I've checked about 3 times and it is definately at a higher latitude on the satellite. The NAE (which has been pretty rock solid all day give or take 30 miles) is bang on I think.

It may also be savvy to point out that the low may be developing more rapidly; make no mistake this system actually has the potential to be another 1987.

Edited December 15, 2011 by CreweCold

[Nick L]

Come on folks, let's not give up hope. And please keep your posts at least somewhat realistic rather than resorting to knee-jerk hysteria

[PolarWarsaw]

Couldnt resist sneaking a last forecast in before bedtime. The PPN shows to be getting north of Birmingham, but it shows much more of a rainy line now than the snowy one the 6.25 forecast did. Check it out.

[Nick L]

Look at it this way. If the forecast can change so much in just a few hours, why can't it change in the opposite direction in the next few hours? Just get some sleep and see how things are panning out in the morning

[kmanmx]

Look at it this way. If the forecast can change so much in just a few hours, why can't it change in the opposite direction in the next few hours? Just get some sleep and see how things are panning out in the morning

Because the closer we get the more reliable and accurate the model becomes ? Yeah that pretty much nails it..

[conor123]

The Welsh showers have unexpectedly made it across to here, definately some snow mixed in the rain with the odd bit of hail to, wind has picked up a lot aswell.

[Brum Watcher]

someone advise me with the fax charts that just come out, it shows the low tracking south coast, and enclosed with a front to the north say central mids....someone advise please!!!

all i see is the same as bbc and meto scenario 1 from 24 hours ago and the gfs has fallen into line with meto and nae... so changes of gfs according to meto plot.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Brum Watcher

[kmanmx]

Precipitation working its well into the midlands from wales. Seems to be turning icier the further NE it progresses if radar is anything to go by. Bit warm though, 3 to 4c. 850's of -3. Mostly rain and sleet in all but the highest places at a guess. Only very light, no signif accumalations anywhere i'd guess.

[Arctic Hare]

Got up to get a drink of water, and couldn't resist a look... the MetO regional forecast for the West Midlands has already updated, a little earlier in the night than usual. Here's the important bit, for Thu night into Fri:

Cloudy but dry for a time, but heavy rain and strong winds soon developing, turning to heavy wet snow later in the night, probably causing some disruption by morning. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

So... as things stand the MetO are standing by the idea of snow for this region. (Sorry, East Midlanders -- that forecast hasn't yet updated.) It'll probably all have changed in a few hours' time, mind you!

Edited December 15, 2011 by Arctic Hare

[kmanmx]

Got up to get a drink of water, and couldn't resist a look... the MetO regional forecast for the West Midlands has already updated, a little earlier in the night than usual. Here's the important bit, for Thu night into Fri:

Cloudy but dry for a time, but heavy rain and strong winds soon developing, turning to heavy wet snow later in the night, probably causing some disruption by morning. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

So... as things stand the MetO are standing by the idea of snow for this region. (Sorry, East Midlanders -- that forecast hasn't yet updated.) It'll probably all have changed in a few hours' time, mind you!

The written forecast hasn't updated, but the icon forecast was updated at 3:01 along with the west midlands. Birmingham is predeicted Light snow and heavy snow for a point during early hours of Friday. Leicester gets light sleet throughout.. could of guessed that Seems somewhat dubious, same temperatures, yet we get rain. Hmm. Barely any further north eaither..

Leicester from MetO

Birmingham

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx

[syed2878]

Hey all last post for today. Just had a look at met 5day forecast for brum tonight thurstday 15th they have slete and for friday mid level cloud. Looks like we yet gona mis out on the snow but i live in hope because the forecast might change again. If it does i hope it's for the better. Good morning to u all. Keep the faith lol. Love the uk weather.

1 thing guys can u help me with does the met mobile site update later than the main site? Because as i said on my last post they forecasting slete tonight for brum.

[kmanmx]

Thurs 00z is out.. GFS track remains, NAE agreeing with it more. Still some snow, but precip accumalation around 25% what it was before. Doesn't extend as far north, snow is less intense but more widespread down south.

Nottingham/Derby area is about the very northernmost extent. Northampton southwards should do okay, though it doesn't seem like it's going to accumalate well. Looks like moderate to heavy snow.. pretending the ground was dry and temps were lower perhaps 5cm most places, 10cm tops in a few places. But NAE Snow accumalation shows much less than this and not so widespread, a few cm tops.

In summary looks like an upgrade for people a bit south of the midlands. And is fairly consistent with wednesdays 18z in terms of coverage, but a bit of a downgrade in amounts.Looks like GFS predicted the southerly track trend first.

Thurs 00z

Wednesdays 18z Accumulation

Thursdays 00z Accumulation

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx

[Brum Watcher]

see above your original post!!

Hey all last post for today. Just had a look at met 5day forecast for brum tonight thurstday 15th they have slete and for friday mid level cloud. Looks like we yet gona mis out on the snow but i live in hope because the forecast might change again. If it does i hope it's for the better. Good morning to u all. Keep the faith lol. Love the uk weather.

1 thing guys can u help me with does the met mobile site update later than the main site? Because as i said on my last post they forecasting slete tonight for brum.

14 mm in snow equals how many cm's??

Thurs 00z is out.. GFS track remains, NAE agreeing with it more. Still some snow, but precip accumalation around 25% what it was before. Doesn't extend as far north, snow is less intense but more widespread down south.

Nottingham/Derby area is about the very northernmost extent. Northampton southwards should do okay, though it doesn't seem like it's going to accumalate well. Looks like moderate to heavy snow.. pretending the ground was dry and temps were lower perhaps 5cm most places, 10cm tops in a few places. But NAE Snow accumalation shows much less than this and not so widespread, a few cm tops.

In summary looks like an upgrade for people a bit south of the midlands. And is fairly consistent with wednesdays 18z in terms of coverage, but a bit of a downgrade in amounts.Looks like GFS predicted the southerly track trend first.

Thurs 00z

Wednesdays 18z Accumulation

Thursdays 00z Accumulation

[kmanmx]

Its hard to convert rain mm to snow amounts.

When I go skiing, sometimes 10mm turns into 10cm of snow and sometimes it turns into 0.5cm of snow. Not sure. My estimates are just based off the amount of snow other people thought was going to fall, and thenr educing it by the amount the NAE reduced the precip levels.

[Brum Watcher]

GFS, NAE and METO/FAX all on the same output more or less now... certainty begins..and to be honest couldve been worse considering how the models had been behaving...

[kmanmx]

GFS, NAE and METO/FAX all on the same output more or less now... certainty begins..and to be honest couldve been worse considering how the models had been behaving...

Yeah atleast it's not much if at all a downgrade from the 18z run.

Still seems like a marginal event definitely going to have to do some nowcasting.

[kmanmx]

NMM Thursday 00z Disaster .. snow for south, south east. Anywhere north of Northampton is touch and go. Practically nothing for west midlands, and most of east midlands as far as i can tell.

However...

What i think is a Cheshire gap streamer (Not so sure, getting far to technical ) seems to be predicted to bring strong snow starting at 7am with a chunk of snow making it all the way down to south east coast, with rain and sleet following behind it.

Oops sorry for double post !

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx

[Terminal Moraine]

Another light snowfall here this morning. Still snowing lightly now and there looks to be about 2cm.

[kmanmx]

Another light snowfall here this morning. Still snowing lightly now and there looks to be about 2cm.

Figured a few people would get some snow from all the precip coming in from wales direction. Obviously your height helped alot.. 100m asl, 90% rain and 10% sleet here.

[andy_leics22]

Grrrrrrrrrrr, I knew the GFS would downgrade within 48 hours, It always seems to downgrade within 48 hours when a snow event is on the cards, I think in the 7 years i've been on here i've seen about 2 upgrades within T48 and about 30 downgrades.

[kmanmx]

Grrrrrrrrrrr, I knew the GFS would downgrade within 48 hours, It always seems to downgrade within 48 hours when a snow event is on the cards, I think in the 7 years i've been on here i've seen about 2 upgrades within T48 and about 30 downgrades.

Well NMM and NAE seem to show precip making it further north as well as being more significant. Only needs to be very sligthly wrong for Leics to atleast get falling snow - though seems unlikely to settle now. Unless GFS is totally right, then we're definitely screwed.

As expected, the PPN is predicted to be further South, and I would expect Northern Midland counties to come out of the warning zone later today, although even further South the GFS is not keen on much in the way of snow , whilst the NAE has been performing badly of late anyway.

Beyond that, the anomalous warmth of the Irish Sea is being picked upon by the models and the Cheshire Gap flow will be rain/sleet.

Sad but probably correct there about cheshire gap flow. It's too late in the day, temps are already up to 2 or 3c by the time its predicted to hit midlands.

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx

[Isolated Frost]

The NMM 12z was pretty much perfect for nearly all of the Midlands... does anyone know if the METO has changed it's projected track? There is still time for that low to punch itself back up towards southern england- keep the hope!

[kmanmx]

The NMM 12z was pretty much perfect for nearly all of the Midlands... does anyone know if the METO has changed it's projected track? There is still time for that low to punch itself back up towards southern england- keep the hope!

Though the latest NMM does not look favourable for the whole of midlands, anywhere north of northampton looks less than ideal.Latest Thurs 00z UKMO very similar track to previous run (Actually, slightly more SE), matches up very well with GFS, NAE. Slightly shallower low, precipiation similar. Though it's fairly low res, hard to tell.

Models seem to agree on the track well, but how far the precip heads north inland and it's intensity varies quite a bit between the models.

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx