The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[azores92]

the gfs shows some promise, but to be honest the NAE is repulsive, way too marginal, limited area of snow and that's around the cotswolds. ah well thats the chance of snow gone then

[Terminal Moraine]

According to the NMM 00z the southern Peak District gets nothing at all from the low to the south but is in line for several cm of snow from an area of precipitation moving down from the north west.

I'm not choosy, I'll be quite happy no matter which direction it comes from.

[dvdfjojo]

Argh, GFS back on board and NAE has snatched it right back. Will it, won't it?????

[Crimson_Sprite]

Carlsberg don't do rollercoasters, but if they did they probably call it the GFS....lol

06z trundling out, and have the LP slightly north with ppn spread further north....dig out the prozac & air sickness bags folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride from now in!

:rofl:

[Zakos]

Models still unclear on wheatear it will snow or not. What IS clear now, is that the PPN Will make it into the midlands. This is good news. I still think we are in for a real stonker tonight. Well

Have to wait and see though. Even the 18z will probably not be accurate, as it's so marginal, it could really go either way!!

[A.J]

To paraphrase Nick Sussex over in the model thread...expect nothing, then you might have a nice surprise in the morning!....Fact - Model output is iffy for a good chunk of us...Also as Ian has posted more than once, there's not a lot of cold air in-situ over the midlands currently, later on tonight, colder air will spill in as the upper air flow pattern changes to the North/north west, but will it be a) cold enough to change rain to snow, and b ) timing is crucial, as colder air may well dig in, but after precipitation has already slipped south east out of our region...A lot of variables in play which the model outputs are struggling to come to terms with, plus also who's to say that the variables may change again subtlety nearer T0, something that model output cannot take into account at that timescale...

oops Zakos beat me to it...lol

Edited December 15, 2011 by ajpoolshark

[Crimson_Sprite]

does anyone know ideally where the Low needs to be placed in order to get snow for east midlands? OK Nottingham? How about for NG5 6NQ? No but really.. is it more of a matter of temperature now instead of where the low will be going? It seems that the event is so marginal for snow that perhaps 50-75 miles might make a difference for some of us.

edit: My answer has been given before my post aired! lol

Edited December 15, 2011 by Crimson_Sprite

[Brum Watcher]

lol, first begging GFS to jump onto the NAE boat, now the NAE boat sinks, seems like NAE is struggling now and behind a run compared to other models.

oh yeh just sseen the GFS track on the 06z and it has tracked further north now, a trend hopefully for the next few runs...and also the satellite imagery supports this, as it seems like the low is building further north as originally shoen by GFS two days ago.....oooofff model watching....

Edited December 15, 2011 by Brum Watcher

[Nick L]

One thing's for certain - I do not envy the boffins at the Met Office this morning!

[Isolated Frost]

GFS 06z pushes it up 30-50 miles, an upgrade... here's hoping the 12z does the same. Game on for the mildlands!

[Zakos]

Make a prediction based on the radar tonight.Chances are you will be more accurate than the models...

[andy_leics22]

Lmao!! This is absolutely ridiculous, not even 12-18 hours till the event and the models are flip flopping all over the shop. NAE downgrades for central and Northern Midlands, GFS upgrades... Well i'm just going to expect nothing tonight/tomorrow and that way I won't be disappointed

[Brum Watcher]

I reckon the 12z will be the most important one today for all of us, humm including the media forecasters, they seem a bit lost today. you gotta feel for them for the next upto 24 hours or so...

[Nick L]

I've got 3 assignments to do today as well as packing, it's so hard to ignore this distraction!!

I reckon the 12z will be the most important one today for all of us, humm including the media forecasters, they seem a bit lost today. you gotta feel for them for the next upto 24 hours or so...

I don't think the models are that important anymore, it's moving into nowcast territory.

[Brum Watcher]

3-5 inches of snow for the whole of the midlands, blizzard conditions, school closures.....or is this a ramp rather than a prediction....

Make a prediction based on the radar tonight.Chances are you will be more accurate than the models...

[MKN]

No one mentioning the upgrade regarding the shortwave moving through from the nw to join up with our troublesome low throughout Friday. Definately worth watching. Granted temps might be to high for anything to remain on the ground but could give temporary accumulations during the heavier bursts.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Lmao!! This is absolutely ridiculous, not even 12-18 hours till the event and the models are flip flopping all over the shop. NAE downgrades for central and Northern Midlands, GFS upgrades... Well i'm just going to expect nothing tonight/tomorrow and that way I won't be disappointed

LOL!!! You say that, but you know secretly you will be on lamp post duty and radar watch throughout the night. begging and pleading for the snow to reach us hahaha. Then absolute suicidal disappointment tomorrow when we wake up with just rain and a random flake thrown in for good measure hahaha :lol:

C'mon midlands!!! we well deserve snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wonder if the meto are going to put out another one of their video updates?

[Isolated Frost]

06z NMM upgrades it about 10-30 miles nw'wards. Slight upgrade, but better than nothing.

The 12z NMM, 12z GFS, 12z FAX, 12z UKMO, 12z ECM- all very important; that's what will break it... 3pm to 7pm will be make-or-break.

[Brum Watcher]

where can i see this NMM chart, any link please.

06z NMM upgrades it about 10-30 miles nw'wards. Slight upgrade, but better than nothing.

The 12z NMM, 12z GFS, 12z FAX, 12z UKMO, 12z ECM- all very important; that's what will break it... 3pm to 7pm will be make-or-break.

[Isolated Frost]

where can i see this NMM chart, any link please.

Sorry, only available on NW Extra, you can get NMM Lite which offers similar stuff on NW Extra (£6.49 p/m, £25.99 6/m) a bargain when you look at what is available.

[A.J]

No one mentioning the upgrade regarding the shortwave moving through from the nw to join up with our troublesome low throughout Friday. Definately worth watching. Granted temps might be to high for anything to remain on the ground but could give temporary accumulations during the heavier bursts.

Well spotted my man!...me likey da look of dat! :lol:

charts courtesy of NetWeather Extra

[MKN]

the nmm also shows the precip coming in from the nw as very intense precip. In all honesty if I was living around Staffordshire area id be watching this development more than the low through the night.

[Nick L]

Well spotted my man!...me likey da look of dat! :lol:

charts courtesy of NetWeather Extra

Wow. That is a gorgeous Cheshire Gap streamer!

[laheymichele]

beautiful chart for stoke on trent!!!loving it!!!

Edited December 15, 2011 by laheymichele

[Michael Winston]

UKMO have now removed the snow warning for tomorrow,

Sorry.

Regards,

Mike