The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[Supercell]

Good luck to everyone. My call is that the snow wont make it further north than about 20 miles south of Brum. Its happened so many time in the past, like 6 inches in Warwick and Rugby, bugger all in Walsall lol.

Need to give it a 50 mile push north

Good luck to everyone. My call is that the snow wont make it further north than about 20 miles south of Brum. Its happened so many time in the past, like 6 inches in Warwick and Rugby, bugger all in Walsall lol.

Need to give it a 50 mile push north

Oh I dunno about Rugby. I had to drive to stratford last December to see near enough a foot of snow in places where we had nothing. Leamington, Coventry and Warwick had a decent amount too.

[Brum Watcher]

Metoffice update today is interseting viewing with the track of the low in the channel they are still saying maybe upto humberside.......hummmm

http://www.metoffice...try-end-to-week

and last updated today as you can see the track of the low he is explaining.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Brum Watcher

[Snowy Easterly]

NMM looks pretty decent for the southern Midlands with snow developing over the SW from 2-3am onwards.

I arguably live in the south midlands what are my chances ?

[FreezeManiac]

I arguably live in the south midlands what are my chances ?

Might be too far east - maybe who knows until we see it now I think

[Isolated Frost]

I arguably live in the south midlands what are my chances ?

You should see snow falling around sunrise tomorrow.

[stewfox]

I arguably live in the south midlands what are my chances ?

I too according to Wikpidea live in the south midlands, but will move to South East if the potential is better there

[Luke]

When is it likely to start falling as snow here (if it does)?

Might have to be up to see it

[Cheshire Freeze]

By Midnight I think we'll have some idea as to northward extent/liklihood of snow etc. The northernmost edge looks very ragged so doubt snow will fall in that area.

Edited December 15, 2011 by CreweCold

[Polar Low]

When is it likely to start falling as snow here (if it does)?

Might have to be up to see it

It will start as rain and turn increasingly to snow as we head towards Dawn.

[The PIT]

Well fingers crossed for another surprise tomorrow although I guess two surprised in two days is asking far too much. Interestingly it seems our council was caught on the hop once again by snow.

[Arctic Hare]

Any other way to see it?

Not to the standard NW Extra shows. You can see an NMM chart via Meteociel (listed as WRF) but it's not very easy to use, not least because the British coast is nearly (but not quite!) invisible. Here it is, anyway:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

[MKN]

Very minor differences upto now at +6 (nearly) precip slightly further north not quite so far east in comparison to the nmm. The closest resemblance to +6 at this stage is the gfs

[Polar Low]

Not sure why so many of you are still so interested in what the models are suggesting ~ at such a close range nowcasting should take priority and any minor changes can be pretty much ignored - it's a case of watching the radar and looking out the window!

[NorthantsSnow]

Northampton south enough but too far east I think. It's like last winter all over again!

[Zakos]

Northampton south enough but too far east I think. It's like last winter all over again!

I do think we could see some, But yes last winter was atrocious for us!!! we dont wont a repeat of that...

[Hooverman]

I have just looked at the animation and yes the coastline is just visible - but as some else has mentioned the leading edge is a bit jagged and could fragment and just be showers, for worcestershire that is.

I hope not as wanting to post my first snow depth report on my weather station.

Fingers crossed everybody, i can see me not going to bed till i know its an absolute bolt on for hitting where i live.

:winky:

Northampton south enough but too far east I think. It's like last winter all over again!

Northampton Snow Shield in effect

Edited December 15, 2011 by Hooverman

[Brum Watcher]

the comes onto screen, it does however look slightly more north than the GFS at this time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/pression.php

[stewfox]

Not sure why so many of you are still so interested in what the models are suggesting ~ at such a close range nowcasting should take priority and any minor changes can be pretty much ignored - it's a case of watching the radar and looking out the window!

Last year I was looking at the radar and saw it was showing snow over my location, when I looked out of window it was !!

Looking out of the window is often a forgotten tool that we have.

[andy_leics22]

Well i've got the girlfriend coming round in 5 mins and I think shes staying the night so if I can sneak away from her for a bit later i'll check the radar and post in here :lol: Lets hope for a good surprise peeps!

Edited December 15, 2011 by andy_leics22

[NorthantsSnow]

I do think we could see some, But yes last winter was atrocious for us!!! we dont wont a repeat of that...

Absolutely not. Can't handle another winter chock-full of model teases that end up near misses!!

[Hooverman]

anybody watching www.raintoday.co.uk ?

Thats one heck of a lot of precipitation/snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sorry to be Ian Brown but the cheshire gap activity Sat/Sun will just be rain, no way will it be cold enough, bbc showed it as pure rain at 5.58pm

[conor123]

Keeping fingers crossed the area of showers tommorow is wintry despite the milder uppers arriving with them, also potential Saturday/Saturday Night.

Not tracking tonights low anymore as nothing is going to convince me that it will make it here, im 100% certain it will stall 5 miles south and then slide east.

Sorry to be Ian Brown but the cheshire gap activity Sat/Sun will just be rain, no way will it be cold enough, bbc showed it as pure rain at 5.58pm

Uppers look set to be -5/-6 along with overnight lows of -1c and subzero dewpoints to so we should be fine for wintriness.

Anything will melt quickly though sunday with milder air sweeping in though.

[Strider]

What are the chances for central Brum? I think we are far enough south and west?

[Zakos]

Absolutely not. Can't handle another winter chock-full of model teases that end up near misses!!

Exactly. Im perfectly happy to just miss out on snow. But when there is literally snow sheild where all areas around us in every direction get snow and we get a dusting it really annoys me. This wont happen this time.