Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[Bobby]

Surprised there's little talk of the nasty storm for Wednesday, could be some severe conditions in N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England,

Then it looks like an spell of wet, windy, disturbed weather for most. Then some promising signs into FI for the cold and snow lovers, long way to go yet though.

Edited December 26, 2011 by Barb-

[IDO]

Latest GFS has sent any hope of prolonged cold packing, no sign of any blocking; in fact it strengthens the Atlantic, sending wave after wave of zonal. Transitional cold for the North but continuing with overall mild to the south. I think if this is the situation on the 11th then we can confirm a Bartlett, and taking the setup then, there is little relief for a change for probably another 7-10 days going forward. ECM seem to have members who believe a change will happen and they keep this at the end of their runs, whilst GFS are more cautious, keeping the default pattern. I think both are correct; the change is on the menu but neither are sure when, with ECM simply more pro-active in its modelling whilst GFS will jump on the bandwagon, if & when the synoptics are more persuasive.

"If you add a little to a little, and then do it again, soon that little shall be much."

[leicsnow]

Oh yeah shouldn't a new thread of the model output be starting today?

[Frosty.]

Another shocker of a gfs 06z run for the south at least with very few cool incursions and the limpet high to the south of the british isles is not planning on going anywhere, lows continue to pile in from the atlantic at regular intervals bringing very brief cold incursions into the far north of the uk but very little in the way of snow to low levels, it also looks too windy for frost for much of the time although the southeast would have lighter winds at times being closest to the high with a few frosty nights and some fog but the north and west look very unsettled throughout.

[shedhead]

Latest GFS has sent any hope of prolonged cold packing, no sign of any blocking; in fact it strengthens the Atlantic, sending wave after wave of zonal. Transitional cold for the North but continuing with overall mild to the south. I think if this is the situation on the 11th then we can confirm a Bartlett, and taking the setup then, there is little relief for a change for probably another 7-10 days going forward. ECM seem to have members who believe a change will happen and they keep this at the end of their runs, whilst GFS are more cautious, keeping the default pattern. I think both are correct; the change is on the menu but neither are sure when, with ECM simply more pro-active in its modelling whilst GFS will jump on the bandwagon, if & when the synoptics are more persuasive.

"If you add a little to a little, and then do it again, soon that little shall be much."

Prolonged cold?? I'd say the 06z has sent the prospect of any cold packing, with a 16 day run that can only be described overall as average to mild for the north and mild across the south. ECM as others have suggested looks a far better prospect later in the run, but I've never taken a T+240hr chart as read and I'm not about to start doing so now. Hopefully the result of the strat warming is starting to be picked up, but a few more similar runs are required from ECM before I get too exited, as well as some backup from GFS.

Certainly been fairly mild of late, well that's one way to describe it, albeit wrongly....

Edited December 26, 2011 by shedhead

[snowingman]

... Could this be the MILDEST mid winter spell ever?? currently averaging 9C above normal for the past 36 hours ! based on the charts - this should continue for the next 2 weeks..... The grass will be needing cut on New years day at this rate - any cold is way way up North!! some one somewhere in the NH must be experience winter - but NOT the UK!

[Great Plum]

The 06 GFS was a mild outlier in FI... Don't panic!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[January Snowstorm]

Worth noting that the current conditions are exactly to plan as per GP's forecast.

Mid Jan at the earliest is what he said and for now i'm happy with that.

If you are around GP a little update as to whether we are still on track would help us coldies!

[reef]

New thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72055-model-output-discussion-26th-december-1st-january/