Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[JP1972]

I am hoping we don't just have the usual flip flopping between mild and chilly which has been the story so far this winter although much more mild than cold so far, the charts are beginning to look more wintry in FI but could that be due to missing data ?

Oh for God's sake

[DAVID SNOW]

Whilst the 384hrs (IF it were to verify) does offer the potential for height rises over Scandi and a potential future Easterly, any talk of 'a frozen Europe already in place' looks a fair way off the mark to me.

Merry Christmas to all.

Just for one day{this day}straw clutching should be allowed. :smiliz19:

[Nick L]

I am hoping we don't just have the usual flip flopping between mild and chilly which has been the story so far this winter although much more mild than cold so far, the charts are beginning to look more wintry in FI but could that be due to missing data ?

We have this wheeled out every year - it's a myth pretty much.

And Merry Christmas to all!

Edited December 25, 2011 by Nick L

[cyclonic happiness]

Well I haven't seen Mr Data this morning yet, so perhaps it's true? ehem!

Oh and merry Christmas!

*hits the sherry and celebrates the last image of FI*

Whilst the 384hrs (IF it were to verify) does offer the prospect of height rises over Scandi and a potential future Easterly, any talk of 'a frozen Europe already in place' looks a fair way off the mark to me.

Don't be so grumpy! It's our Christmas present from the GFS

[Frosty.]

We have this wheeled out every year - it's a myth pretty much.

And Merry Christmas to all!

It just seems a coincidence how fi has suddenly improved today

[shedhead]

There had to be one....

The 06 GFS kinda keep the theme alive in deep FI, so will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensemble suite shortly.

[Nick L]

It just seems a coincidence how fi has suddenly improved today

Most of the data is automated. It didn't really just suddenly improve this morning though, there were hints of it last night. Don't complain, the models are giving us a nice Xmas present

[Frosty.]

Most of the data is automated. It didn't really just suddenly improve this morning though, there were hints of it last night. Don't complain, the models are giving us a nice Xmas present

Oh i'm not complaining, just can't quite believe it, merry christmas all free champagne for all on netweather

[Midlands Ice Age]

Raise your glasses with me.......

'THE MODELS'

May you all get what you want from them this Xmas...... they ARE trying really hard. for us

I'm mainly a lurker but would like to wish you all the seasons greetings. ...... Ian B even yourself

MIA

[shedhead]

Coldest member at 384hrs. The mean remains pretty much on average all the way through the run from Jan 1st. Very little to get exited about here, so depite the fact it's Xmas folk need to start managing expectations imo.

[Frosty.]

Coldest member at 384hrs. The mean remains pretty much on average all the way through the run from Jan 1st. Very little to get exited about here, so depite the fact it's Xmas folk need to start managing expectations imo.

HUMBUG

Let us at least enjoy the first decent looking fi

[SP1986]

I had to pinch myself when reading some posts from this morning, there is some wild straw clutching going on, and a perhaps a lack of looking at the real situation.

However that matters not today, Merry Christmas everyone!

[Frosty.]

I had to pinch myself when reading some posts from this morning, there is some wild straw clutching going on, and a perhaps a lack of looking at the real situation.

please explain what the real situation is? and give us a full detailed breakdown of how you see the next 4 weeks evolving..thanks and merry christmas

[Duane S.]

Ha ha, the 'zonal dirge' into FI continues with the 06z this morning from the 18z last night

Of course it WILL flip about all over the place in the coming 2 weeks but we are now seeing an emerging trend of a weakening vortex albeit in deep FI.

Happy Xmas :smilz38:

[Buzz]

I had to pinch myself when reading some posts from this morning, there is some wild straw clutching going on, and a perhaps a lack of looking at the real situation.

So what? What is the 'REAL' situation then? I'm sure we'd all love to hear your in-depth analysis and forecast for the coming weeks..

It's FI - it may happen, it may not. If some people like looking at it then let them you miserable old Grinch.

[shedhead]

I had to pinch myself when reading some posts from this morning, there is some wild straw clutching going on, and a perhaps a lack of looking at the real situation.

However that matters not today, Merry Christmas everyone!

Concur 100%, absolutely nothing at all in the model output to suggest a cold pattern is even likely as we go through the first half of Jan, let alone almost the given that

some posts have suggested this morning. Bottom line is the kind of warm, wafting SW'erlies we're currently experiencing do not look set to be so dominant post T+192hrs,

but that is about as good as it gets based on the latest outputs, all other suggestions of sudden, meaningful or genuine improvments are spurious and misleading imo.

[kold weather]

I can see both sides of things, if you say there is nothing to suggest changes maybe afoot, especially in the stratopshwere then you are frankly 100% ignorant of the set-up we have and the conditions that are starting to show their hand aloft...clearly the pattern of a super strong PV with monster lows and a powerful subtropical belt does look like its going to ease off somewhat. For now though the Atlantic is NOT going to co-operate it seems at least for the next 10-15 days IMO.

Still take a look at both the Stratospheric situation and then look at the models, pair the two together and there IS changes afoot, just not at the moment in our neck of the woods. PV will hold on but there is a BIG hints of another attack on the PV to come between the 10-20th Jan and that IMO is the one that will flip us into a totally different pattern. Just a few hints of this right now, but those hints/straws are well worth watching...

[Mark Neal.]

Fantasy Island Fun! The Gfs wants to give us a christmas day FI treat, or is this really Ian Brown hacking the gfs trying to get us excited before his so called ' bartlett arrives in the UK'.

[bluearmy]

the reliable timeframe looks fairly certain (guess that's why it's reliable!!)

Beyond and things seem to begin to change. Just as in mid December last year we were looking at a strong vortex forecast and musing about the end of the cold period, this winter we are looking at the beginning of the end of the strong vortex and musing about the possibilities for some cold patterns (with fi charts to back it up as opposed to several days ago when there were no charts to look at in fi which were showing high lat blocks). The detail is bound to be wrong in charts more than two weeks away but the fact that the vortex is forecast to weaken is not really open to debate.

[shedhead]

I can see both sides of things, if you say there is nothing to suggest changes maybe afoot, especially in the stratopshwere then you are frankly 100% ignorant of the set-up we have and the conditions that are starting to show their hand aloft...clearly the pattern of a super strong PV with monster lows and a powerful subtropical belt does look like its going to ease off somewhat. For now though the Atlantic is NOT going to co-operate it seems at least for the next 10-15 days IMO.

Still take a look at both the Stratospheric situation and then look at the models, pair the two together and there IS changes afoot, just not at the moment in our neck of the woods. PV will hold on but there is a BIG hints of another attack on the PV to come between the 10-20th Jan and that IMO is the one that will flip us into a totally different pattern. Just a few hints of this right now, but those hints/straws are well worth watching...

Not sure who you were referring to Kold, but I'm not ignorant of what's going on either in the strat or in the strat thread. However, several mods have been very keen to remind us that this is the model discussion thread, not the strat discusssion thread, therefore my comments above refer to what the models are actually showing, not what they could, might or may show IF the current strat warming (or future ones) are sufficient to weaken/break up the vortex. With respect, can we please have some consistancy of approach. Thank you.

Edited December 25, 2011 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

I can see both sides of things, if you say there is nothing to suggest changes maybe afoot, especially in the stratopshwere then you are frankly 100% ignorant of the set-up we have and the conditions that are starting to show their hand aloft...clearly the pattern of a super strong PV with monster lows and a powerful subtropical belt does look like its going to ease off somewhat. For now though the Atlantic is NOT going to co-operate it seems at least for the next 10-15 days IMO.

Still take a look at both the Stratospheric situation and then look at the models, pair the two together and there IS changes afoot, just not at the moment in our neck of the woods. PV will hold on but there is a BIG hints of another attack on the PV to come between the 10-20th Jan and that IMO is the one that will flip us into a totally different pattern. Just a few hints of this right now, but those hints/straws are well worth watching...

Excellent post, this is the type of post I was hoping young farts anonymous would post to back up his earlier flippant post but you have summed up the situation as well as anyone could.

[SP1986]

So what? What is the 'REAL' situation then? I'm sure we'd all love to hear your in-depth analysis and forecast for the coming weeks..

It's FI - it may happen, it may not. If some people like looking at it then let them you miserable old Grinch.

Does it matter? Not particularly, just enjoy the day!

FYI, the real situation is that as yet there is no signal for impending cold weather, not a medium or long range signal (Strat warming aside), in general the cold is staying in the far reaches of the model output and the scenario is changing every day. There's nothing there.. I'd love to be able to say the opposite, it just isn't my thing to do that with little back up, that's all.

By the way I'm very miserable

Excellent post, this is the type of post I was hoping young farts anonymous would post to back up his earlier flippant post but you have summed up the situation as well as anyone could.

For the record I agree with KW.

[bluearmy]

Not sure who you were referring to Kold, but I'm not ignorant of what's going on either in the strat or in the strat thread. However, several mods have been very keen to remind us that this is the model discussion thread, not the strat discusssion thread, therefore my comments above refer to what the models are actually showing, not what they could, might or may show IF the current strat warming (or future ones) are sufficient to weaken/break up the vortex. With respect, can we please have some consistancy of approach. Thank you.

But the only long range we can see are the gefs and gfs op. From a NH perspective we now see higher heights getting into the arctic which we haven't seen yet this winter on the models. That is what the fi models ARE showing. It may verify, it may not. Surely it is ok to discuss it's possible ramifications in this thread.?? If you are only going to look at the European/Atlantic charts, you won't get a perspective on what's going on wit the 'big picture'.

[J10]

We have this wheeled out every year - it's a myth pretty much.

And Merry Christmas to all!

But to offset the lack of airline data, we have all the data from Santa's sleigh and that more than makes up for it .To be fair though, Rudolph only had this installed from GFS money in December.

Hope everyone has a great Christmas and perhaps more importantly a happy 2012, you can't buy happiness.

[Cheese Rice]

Concur 100%, absolutely nothing at all in the model output to suggest a cold pattern is even likely as we go through the first half of Jan, let alone almost the given that

some posts have suggested this morning. Bottom line is the kind of warm, wafting SW'erlies we're currently experiencing do not look set to be so dominant post T+192hrs,

but that is about as good as it gets based on the latest outputs, all other suggestions of sudden, meaningful or genuine improvments are spurious and misleading imo.

Well its two runs in a row we are seeing a North Atlantic high taking hold. It might be in FI but pattern changes have been picked up and in the past brought right in to reliable time frame (December 2009 Easterly, projected consistently weeks before). It would at least start to make these claims of pattern changes mid month credible.

Plus there are a few cold ensemble members popping up, even if nothing long-term is shown there is at least hope for either a northerly or a decent PM incursion.

Edited December 25, 2011 by Cheese Rice