Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[NorthernRab]

Good charts for the scottish ski industry, not much use for anyone else.

Bear in mind that people do live in the Highlands though.

Wednesday looks quite interesting for some fairly heavy snow, especially for those in the Duthaich Mhic Aoidh region.

[Frosty.]

Bear in mind that people do live in the Highlands though.

Wednesday looks quite interesting for some fairly heavy snow, especially for those in the Duthaich Mhic Aoidh region.

Hi Rab, yes it looks briefly wintry around the middle of next week in the scottish highlands before it turns very mild again and the scottish highlands are currently in pole position for any cold incursions during F1 the next week or two but for the majority of the uk it's a fairly mild outlook. Edited December 24, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[ANYWEATHER]

Merry Christmas Everyone! :smilz38: Looks a very zonal look still with the jet swishing and swaying just like a drunken man on Xmas Eve walking Home!! Not a lot to say but there will be some interesting weather over the Xmas period, and there is some scope of some nice Wintry conditions as we make a move later in January

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the Models there could be some nasty blizzards for the Highlands later on Wednesday once the LP system has moved through and the cold air moves in for a short time behind it.

[nick sussex]

In terms of prospects as we head towards the New Year, nothing at the moment shouts lets get the sledge out and dust off the ear muffs and scarve!

We still have this strong PV to deal with but it is likely to lose some of its energy and looking at the overall output we should eventually see the jet angling more nw/se to bring some cooler conditions with a mix of colder and milder interludes.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default.asp?type=eps_pluim

This is suggested by the extended ECM ensemble clustering, so probably two mild interludes over the next few days then another around the turn of the year before the limpet high edges further west into the Atlantic.

The NAEFS hints at some pressure rising from Russia nw towards Svalbard, this was mentioned earlier by RJS and this would help with carving a more favourable jet angle into the UK.

So a cooler type zonality looks the favoured scenario for a while then uncertainty because of the current strat warming, this at the moment looks like just slowing the zonal flow but not derailing it completely, we may need a second warming to do the trick, this may happen but too early to say at the moment.

If you get to the point of the nw/se tilt jet then any further slowing in the jet and more amplification can help dig lower heights further se into Europe and build a stronger ridge nw in towards Svalbard.

Just a few comments from NOAA upstream in the USA, some disagreements between the GFS and other models regarding the building of a ridge on the west coast of the USA.

BEYOND TUE ...THE 12Z/24 GFS LOOKS UNUSABLE AND GETS OUT OF SYNC

WITH ITS OWN 00Z CONTINUITY. IT IS OFF TO THE RACES IN BUILDING

RIDGING OVER THE W COAST STATES BY FRI EVE, ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW

INCREASING AMPLITUDE TO A PACIFIC TROF UPSTREAM...WE NEED MORE

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO GO FOR MORE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN

THAN WE ALREADY HAVE. OTHER 12Z MODELS ARE LESS EXCITED ABOUT

RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE W COAST AFTER DAY 5 AND SHOW ONLY A

CONTINUED VERY FLAT RIDGE ALONG 120W.

I like this comment:

THE STRONGER RIDGING MAY STILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN AS PER WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY...AND FAST ZONAL PATTERNS SUCH AS THE ONE WE ARE

DEALING WITH CAN ONLY LAST SO LONG BEFORE THEY BUCKLE SOMEWHERE

We certainly need to see some buckling in the upstream pattern.

So for the timebeing we're going to have to remain patient and just see what develops if we can get this nw/se tilt to the jet, the background variable remains that strat warming.

Merry Christmas to everyone, lets hope the New Year brings something much more interesting for all the cold and snow lovers here.

[Frosty.]

Merry Christmas to all on Netweather, testing times for all cold fans but signs of hope, not necessarily from the models but more from the likes of RJS, VERY encouraged by what he said about the ssw in the next few weeks, lets hope the impact on the way the models are looking will be dramatic by the time we hit the new year.

[bluearmy]

Merry Christmas to all on Netweather, testing times for all cold fans but signs of hope, not necessarily from the models but more from the likes of RJS, VERY encouraged by what he said about the ssw in the next few weeks, lets hope the impact on the way the models are looking will be dramatic by the time we hit the new year.

Plenty to see on the hemispheric gfs in deep fi frosty. Happy Xmas all. I think T300 + is going to become fun over the festive period.

[Wales123098]

Big Greenland high in FI. With cold air trying to make its way SW over the UK from Scandi. Are we heading for a very cold January? Time will tell. Obviously a long time to go but encouraging signs I guess.

Edited December 24, 2011 by Wales123098

[feb1991blizzard]

Slight hope in deep FI on the GFS 18z, by about 300 there is the lighter blue colour representing the 522 height of 500mb slap bang over the pole and by the end of the run the 552 Just ridging into Greenland and there is nothing sub 500dam on the chart.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Signs appearing on quite a few of the latest GFS model runs towards the end of FI with the high being pulled west and the vortex weakening considerably. This chart is at 384 hours but shows perfectly what I mean.....

As GP said, the strong vortex we have seen over the past couple of months MAY be on its last legs

Edited December 24, 2011 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Signs appearing on quite a few of the latest GFS model runs towards the end of FI with the high being pulled west and the vortex weakening considerably. This chart is at 384 hours but shows perfectly what I mean.....

As GP said, the strong vortex we have seen over the past couple of months MAY be on its last legs

Yes crewe, as i said above, at least there are signs, compare the amount of intensely low heights on the chart at 240 and 370 and this isnt the first time either, there was a hint on the 6z if i remember rightly, we may have to make do with the odd PM incursion untill second half of Jan as it may require a few bites at the cherry, all i want to see now is consistent weakening of the PV, no stonking e'lys / N'lys for the forseeable but as long as there are signs.

Edited December 24, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Jason M]

I'm amazed at the doom and gloom, don't you look in the strat thread? I admit there is no sign of a freeze yet but there will be cold incursions a times, at least for the north. I agree with chio and fred and gp that a bit more patience will be rewarded in spades in the not too distant future. Please let us just remember that jan and feb this year were shockingly bad with not a single flake of snow in most of the uk..short memories huh..

I do look in the Strat thread from time to time however my understanding differs somewhat from yours in that I wasnt under the impression that the above posters had forecast a freeze. There isnt even any guarantee that any strat warming will penetrate low enough into the atmosphere to make any difference (although it might do of course). I wasnt looking to promote 'gloom and doom' but merely make the point that the charts at present are actually pretty extreme (albeit not in the way we like). The 'B' word gets used a lot but in my mind what were seeing in the charts is a classic textbook Bartlett set up and in reality this set up isnt actually very common at all. Sure we get high pressure to our south and it can hang around but this type of set up is a brute to break out of as it just perpetuates itself.

The pattern may break (and I hope it does), but this set up can be a 'winter killer' and as the charts clearly show it doesnt look like breaking soon.

Anyway happy Xmas to everyone here and hopefully a 'snowy' new year

Edit - Deep FI on GFS looks a little better tonight, though using the 06Z run as a benchmark that wouldnt be difficult!

Edited December 24, 2011 by Jason M

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes crewe, as i said above, at least there are signs, compare the amount of intensely low heights on the chart at 240 and 370 and this isnt the first time either, there was a hint on the 6z if i remember rightly, we may have to make do with the odd PM incursion untill second half of Jan as it may require a few bites at the cherry, all i want to see now is consistent weakening of the PV, no stonking e'lys / N'lys for the forseeable but as long as there are signs.

Yes, CFS has been trending favourable for Mid Jan for a while now too with plenty of northerly/easterly options occurring. I think we need to keep this tiny bit of momentum going if we are to break these zonal shackles.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, CFS has been trending favourable for Mid Jan for a while now too with plenty of northerly/easterly options occurring. I think we need to keep this tiny bit of momentum going if we are to break these zonal shackles.

I dont view the CFS frame by frame that often, just the height anomalies on the NOAA website and a tiny positive, for the first time in ages february does have a very pale orange over the polar regions, only a really pale thin strip but all the same better that nothing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I dont view the CFS frame by frame that often, just the height anomalies on the NOAA website and a tiny positive, for the first time in ages february does have a very pale orange over the polar regions, only a really pale thin strip but all the same better that nothing.

I don't mean the anomoly charts, the charts on Weatheronline I was relating to which have 2 runs a day

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't mean the anomoly charts, the charts on Weatheronline I was relating to which have 2 runs a day

I have looked at the ones on weatheronline before but i wasnt aware they updated twice a day, can you post a link please as i am curious now

[Rollo]

Merry Christmas everyone,I must say it is nice to see some optimism showing tonight-who knows a new year may just bring the change we cold lovers like.

[Jason T]

Well MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL. Changes at last are starting to appear. Have a good one.GP CLEAR YOUR IN BOX. Anyway the beauty of this model watching is just that, However changes are showing at last. The beauty of life is we cant go back, Only forward. The uk is due a time for overhaul,I believe jauary will deliver the frankinstien moster version of (ITS ALIVE ITS ALIVE) Abit more halloween that phrase, Well winter knocked itself out last time and went into a coma(it takes time to recover) However winter is now awake and wants redemption. Whilst it was in MILD state it felt out of sync,It new it had to upgrade to change the hands of time and get back to reality.(ROLL ON JANUARY)

MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL.

JASON. :smiliz19:

Edited December 25, 2011 by silver line

[SP1986]

I'm not particularly biased towards any situation like many on here in regards to a weather perspective, but it would be nice to see some interesting synoptics in the new year, whether that be influenced by a Bartlett or a Greenland High. It would be nice to perhaps see some strong Atlantic systems, with tight isobaric value, but this is looking less likely. Synoptically lets hope the new year starts in an interesting vain, regardless of whether it is mild or cold.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL. Changes at last are starting to appear. Have a good one.GP CLEAR YOUR IN BOX. Anyway the beauty of this model watching is just that, However changes are showing at last. The beauty of life is we cant go back, Only forward. The uk is due a time for overhaul,I believe jauary will deliver the frankinstien moster version of (ITS ALIVE ITS ALIVE) Abit more halloween that phrase, Well winter knocked itself out last time and went into a coma(it takes time to recover) However winter is now awake and wants redemption. Whilst it was in MILD state it felt out of sync,It new it had to upgrade to change the hands of time and get back to reality.(ROLL ON JANUARY)

MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL.

JASON. :smiliz19:

Indeed, and 7-10 jan PIVOTAL winter period. Watch for southerly tracking 'trigger' LP and....possibly....bingo

Until then Merry sort of mild Christmas !! :smilz38:

Ossie its XMAS day....don't delete!!!

Oh...storm 27/28...UKMO still wants it.

I'm returning on 27th so enjoy ALL and looking forward to what models show then

BFTP

Edited December 25, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Daniel Miller]

Merry Christmas to all! Dreadful weather atm but what can you do haha.

Hopefully a change in the New Year- Though preferably after Jan 20th as I have A Level exams!

Something about the models to keep certain people happy, idk why though, it IS Christmas

GFS looks a rather mixed bag, neither horribly mild nor freezing cold, hope it's drunk on the sherry.

[shedhead]

Whilst things do look more promising in the longer term on the 18z GFS, they also did so at this time last night, which precipitated this post from me....

I suggest it's worth getting one or two similar or even better runs in before cracking the bubbly. We could just as easily be back in mild SW'erly

dross come the 00 run in 4 or 5 hours time.

Edited by shedhead, 23 December 2011 - 23:46 .

The same caveats apply now.

[bobbydog]

off topic.... MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! :smiliz19:

[Duane S.]

Well well GFS 18z serves up a pre-xmas treat. Expect swings back and forth but for the first time a promising NH deep FI chart. Compare the 12z with the 18z! Oh and happy Xmas to everyone!!!

[danm]

Merry Crimbo!