Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes it has been an essentially normal December - but zonal can't really produce snow for where the bulk of members on the forum live -hence the easterly preferences for many members.

The METO longer range outlook today reflects the models, taking us up to Jan 21.

Yes but thats a whole month away so it doesn't 'take care' of anything does it.

The models will chop and change and so will the updates,but i do agree the next 10 to 14 days are pretty much a no-no for coldies.

[legritter]

some good constructive discussion going on today .the forecasted jet to possibly move south in jan is a big help , i find it great when certain members throw in some meat on bones ,as until christmas day when i get new computer i am unable to access much info as com naff ,i will certainly be looking out for yellows above 60 north ,cheers all

[Costa Del Fal]

Where we are now is right up there with some of those from the era that we know so well, and I’m aligning this with a couple of the respected US guys changing their January outlooks.

Who are these respected people? Where are their forecasts? Lets see some charts that prove this one of the most zonal outlooks ever?

Back up your claims please Ian, because one liners without any proof is about as useful as the dogs dinner for our Christmas day lunch!

Anyway, contrary to what Ian says, I certianly dont think this is one of the most Zonal outlooks seen. Whilst the flow is generally from the West, we are seeing that occasional, brief NW'ly shots are likely to occur. They wont deliver much but to me its signs, the pattern could quite easily change. Nice to see the GFS regularly toying with some form of colder weather around New Year. Yes it is FI for now but better than a few days ago when very little or no cold weather was suggested. Remember FI is about trends not specific chart picking really.

A brief cold shot next week around the 27th and 28th still looks possible. However with High pressure quickly following it will probably be colder but dry this time.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Blizzards

[Rollo]

I know it's FI, but look at this guys - something to keep an eye on.

Its way way out in lala land Robbie but if you can access the charts around 21st December 1962 onwards you may see the similarity------

And then...

The models are trying to develop something, let' see what they develop. I am guessing something from the east?

[Frosty.]

but i do agree the next 10 to 14 days are pretty much a no-no for coldies.

what about the cold snap next week shown on the latest models? (Gfs 06z)

Edited December 23, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[IDO]

I don't understand why zonal means game over that absolute nonsense, we have had a fair bit of snow up here this month and there has been no easterly in sight!! Zonal does not mean winters over it can produce snowy conditions at times!!

People need to take the models for what they are and not for what they want to see. This is the UK after all we don't get severe cold year in year out the last two years have been exceptional for this country!! As far as I can see we are having a normal winter so far, it is only December after all let's keep watching the models and see what happens there maybe a few surprises in store yet!!

Of course you are not going to complain, I see where you live! Only 11% of the UK population live in Scotland so to base the Winter on what you achieve is really not a good background. The CET is going to be above the long term mean this December, so average at best but compared to recent winters a return to a boring outlook masquerading as a Winter. Based on the FI (as that is all we have) there is very little hope up till mid January. Banality (sorry zonality) to the North and HP to the south of the UK. A bit of frost if we are lucky! Members will say "stop moaning" that's only half of the winter gone. I remember the same people lambasting us for saying the same thing in early November, telling us "it is not even winter yet"! I think the cards have been on the table for a while and no matter how you look at them they are a busted flush. You can keep bluffing but at the end of the day this winter is gonna be a slight for Cold (to the majority of us). I don't mind members drinking from the glass half full mug and I agree there is still six weeks to go (post FI) but every day the FI ticks off another winter's day, with another denunciation for cold, I do wonder if it is telling us something, and maybe many of us are not listening hard enough.

"Veritas vos liberabit"

[shedhead]

• BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 23 December 2011 - 11:23 , said:
  The problem I see is that folk take the models at face value as being absolutely right even upto deep FI, particularly when its showing a mild outcome, and where is this Bartlett that was so promised to entrench itself. General flow is in place through Christmas period but even that has changed feature wise with the models so do not trust each individual run but build a picture going forward.
  If one has to write what each model run is showing to the letter well......
  BFTP

  
  I couldn't agree more, people get too obsessed with every nuance of every single model output and then this thread descends into gloom and despair.
  The facts are that although the output isn't exactly showing cold synoptics neither are they showing a raging Bartlett and the background signals are improving so I think people just need to chill a bit and not worry too much about what the lower resolution output of the GFS is showing.
  

  Frankly I couldn't agree less Blast. This is a model discussion thread, the purpose of which is to discuss what the models are showing. Speculation is fine in the right thread, but in the MDT it's speculation that leads to disharmony and pointless accusations 9 times out of 10, especially when that speculation simply comes without a shread of evidence to back it up.
  

Edited December 23, 2011 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

Of course you are not going to complain, I see where you live! Only 11% of the UK population live in Scotland so to base the Winter on what you achieve is really not a good background. The CET is going to be above the long term mean this December, so average at best but compared to recent winters a return to a boring outlook masquerading as a Winter. Based on the FI (as that is all we have) there is very little hope up till mid January. Banality (sorry zonality) to the North and HP to the south of the UK. A bit of frost if we are lucky! Members will say "stop moaning" that's only half of the winter gone. I remember the same people lambasting us for saying the same thing in early November, telling us "it is not even winter yet"! I think the cards have been on the table for a while and no matter how you look at them they are a busted flush. You can keep bluffing but at the end of the day this winter is gonna be a slight for Cold (to the majority of us). I don't mind members drinking from the glass half full mug and I agree there is still six weeks to go (post FI) but every day the FI ticks off another winter's day, with another denunciation for cold, I do wonder if it is telling us something, and maybe many of us are not listening hard enough. "Veritas vos liberabit"

why not give the upcoming SSW a chance to impact on the models before writing the rest of winter off.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[chionomaniac]

This thread is to discuss the models not to discuss this thread so lets keep it to the models please

[Bobby]

Believe it or not I remember people last year on these forums in early-mid November writing off winter because it was zonal and mild. It's as predictable as the sun rising the moment it's mild and a new ice age isn't being shown on the models.

If people are going to write off winter then at least back it up with some evidence.

[ITSY]

the next week is not going to be cold

the week after is probably not going to be cold but we'll start to see the implications of any potential SSW event showing on the models

after that, nobody knows anything for sure. simple.

[Frosty.]

the next week is not going to be cold

the week after is probably not going to be cold but we'll start to see the implications of any potential SSW event showing on the models

after that, nobody knows anything for sure. simple.

The Gfs 06z op run shows a cold snap next week with wintry showers and overnight frosts after a mild start to the week, does that not count then?

[Dale Leigh_6487]

the mood in here is chronic. come on guys it;s christmas we all have are opinions it spoils the mood in here . merry christmas to all on net weather and hope you all have a great new year. :smilz38:

[Duane S.]

Probably the most zonal outlook I have ever seen from the model output this morning.

Looking further ahead, a couple of respected experts on the US forums are not optimistic about any jet amplification and the first half of January looks taken care of in terms of broad pattern.

I know it's already been said, and rightly so, but never mind the "most zonal outlook ever", this has got to be the most misleading post ever! You really do have a habit of setting yourself up for a fall Ian. The charts are poor, of course they are but surely nobody who has been involved in model watching for as long as you have can seriously believe themselves when making such a remark!?

It really does look like a waiting game for us now. I've spent a lot of time in the past few days running through the GFS member runs (amongst other model ops) to see if we are trending towards some sort of more sustained cold, I'd have to say as of right now I have yet to see ANY evidence of this. Yes, i could use the mean charts etc but I like seeing the extremes on offer (and seeing if and how these increase/decrease in intensity/improbibility).

I would agree with Ian though that there isn't the sort of amplification on the cards in the next couple of weeks (to say Mid Jan is just mild hopecasting) that will enable enough WAA into the right place to effect a major change, right now we would need a lot to shift to disrupt this vortex!

The best news of the week is of course the stratosphere. The experts in that field appear to have got this side of things smack on this year. The usual disclaimer to anybody assimilating warm strat=cold weather for the UK. No it doesn't, BUT a cold strat makes sustained cold weather very unlikely to occur (Scotland and Northern hills excluded from that). And yes of course it hasn't actually happened yet but I tend to find the strat forecasts a LOT more reliable that tropospheric ones.

Just checked today's AO and NAO forecasts and no sign of a shift there. Neutral at best still showing up for Jan but these will be worth watching as we head toward Jan as well. These can be wildly wrong though in its own FI forecasts. I haven't seen any major trend to negative for a long time now so if that were to change it would likely add further weight to a change come January. Once warming comes into the right timescales for the models (depending on their take of propagation and location etc) you would expect one or both of these indexes to trend into more negative territory later on.

And a quick reminder though to some, 1030 mb reading over Greenlandis of little or no use if Western Greenland to svalbard is is shaded purple at 500mb! A very simplistic way of looking at things of course but 99 out of a 100 times it will be the case.

So the way I see it, still, is shot #1, courtesy of the trough off the States, ridging out West around the 28th but very quickly flattened and we're back to mild. Shot #2 around the 5th/6th, same again, possibly a toppler at best, a bit of PM but most likely slip back to mild. Then (and I think the GFS charts will start to reflect this more and more in the coming days) shot #3 around the 12th and we COULD be in business. I still favour our first real cold spell to come from the East and not from building heights in Greenland but I'd happily take either.

Oh... and who's going to be the first to mention the 'missing Xmas data' this year??

Edited December 23, 2011 by s4lancia

[shedhead]

The Gfs 06z op run shows a cold snap next week with wintry showers and overnight frosts after a mild start to the week, does that not count then?

The 06 ops shows a chilly day next Thursday PL, not a cold snap as most would accept one to be... we really do need to keep a sense of perspective here I think.

[Frosty.]

The 06 ops shows a chilly day next Thursday PL, not a cold snap as most would accept one to be... we really do need to keep a sense of perspective here I think.

I think those in scotland might disagree, I was talking about the united kingdom as a whole and not southern england. There could be some snow next week in favoured areas and a few frosty nights which will at least feel seasonal after the very mild spell.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Not sure why people are getting so upset by the term 'zonal' ??? I'm not sure what other term would adequately describe current model output ? Both GFS and ECM show steady mobile systems moving west to east with no meaningful blocking in place, at least that affects the UK anyway, and whilst zonal does not automatically equal wall to wall mild, it certainly rarely equates to persistent cold, at least certainly not with the jet flat and north of the UK. And whilst the last two winters have shown us what can happen when synoptics are favourable for UK cold, surely the previous set of winters also have shown us how difficult it is to break out of this kind of pattern. There were quite a few examples over the previous ten or so years of generally 'zonal' winters when a brief cold shot occurred, (often marginal for lowland Southern Britain though), but the general pattern usually reset - hence why those winters are so despised by cold lovers. So I would suggest that the way this winter has gone so far, and the shape that current output is taking, all points to a certain, (fairly common it has to be said), type of UK winter, where the predominant pattern is of high pressure to our south/south-west, a strong jet largely flat and running on a mid- to northerly latitude track, with occasional incursions of Pm air, and if we're lucky some short-lived northerly outbreaks, or maybe even one or two brief flirtations with continental sourced air.

But as I say, the current model output, (and yes I know it's only 'output', and 'can easily change', and might 'look totally different this time next week'...............), shows no real signs of this zonal setup weakening significantly, and taking current output as the best available indicator, that takes us out to not far off mid-January, which need I add is already half way through 'proper' winter. I'd love to see the output changing drastically, but, putting recent history aside, I won't be at all surprised if we're sitting here come late March discussing a decidedly average 2011-12 winter.

[MisfitDog3]

GFS 129 to 132 hours projection would cause some chin stroking amongst those based near North Sea coasts I reckon! Long way out obviously. GFS seems to be developing some very odd pressures system tracks in the last couple of runs. Transient Highs I can go with but some of the Lows seems to be appearing and then disappearing with no rhyme or reason. Never a good sign of confidences in my view.

[IDO]

why not give the upcoming SSW a chance to impact on the models before writing the rest of winter off.

Two major SSW in the last 30 odd years, 1979 and 1984. The event tends to affect North America. It takes approximately six weeks from the start of the SSW to effect the USA. The 1979 event was of little influence on the UK weather and although in 1984 the UK experienced a cold January 1985, from what was an Omega Block, this may or may not have been a direct result of the SSW. I would not pin too much hope on an SSW being our Nirvana. Of course it will effect the Jetstream, cooler flow, and I would agree that it is a better setup than the current status quo, however that is still 4-6 weeks away and the models will not cover this till the New Year.

[legritter]

MISSING DATA ,WHATS THIS ABOUT MISSING DATA ,tell me more .does that meen the last weeks info is wrong as well ,and next week we have a 480 DAM over southern england .and the channel freezes over .on a seriouse note some tease on jet , and a good mix on charts ,sometimes a good sign ,cheers :smilz38:

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

MISSING DATA ,WHATS THIS ABOUT MISSING DATA ,tell me more .does that meen the last weeks info is wrong as well ,and next week we have a 480 DAM over southern england .and the channel freezes over .on a seriouse note some tease on jet , and a good mix on charts ,sometimes a good sign ,cheers :smilz38:

Its a statement used over the Christmas period, usually to suggest the mild/break in cold conditions won't happen as not all the data has been put into the GFS computer. This time last year we were hoping the missing data was the reason the cold seemed to dissappear in the FI charts of the time. If the charts over the Christmas period are overally exciting or rubbish for sustained cold expect the 'missing data' statement to be used. :smilz38:

Edited December 23, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[shedhead]

I think those in scotland might disagree, I was talking about the united kingdom as a whole and not southern england. There could be some snow next week in favoured areas and a few frosty nights which will at least feel seasonal after the very mild spell.

Doesn't really matter where you are talking about with regard to next week imo, a chilly day or two with temps slightly below average would cover it for 99% of the populus as things stand on the current model outputs.

[J10]

The latest synoptic outlook for the next 7 days is shown on the Alps blog.

Predominantly mild with Bartlettesque conditions (at times) sums it up quite well.

[chionomaniac]

Two major SSW in the last 30 odd years, 1979 and 1984. The event tends to affect North America. It takes approximately six weeks from the start of the SSW to effect the USA. The 1979 event was of little influence on the UK weather and although in 1984 the UK experienced a cold January 1985, from what was an Omega Block, this may or may not have been a direct result of the SSW. I would not pin too much hope on an SSW being our Nirvana. Of course it will effect the Jetstream, cooler flow, and I would agree that it is a better setup than the current status quo, however that is still 4-6 weeks away and the models will not cover this till the New Year.

That's not correct and is best kept in the strat thread.

MISSING DATA ,WHATS THIS ABOUT MISSING DATA ,tell me more .does that meen the last weeks info is wrong as well ,and next week we have a 480 DAM over southern england .and the channel freezes over .on a seriouse note some tease on jet , and a good mix on charts ,sometimes a good sign ,cheers :smilz38:

This crops up every Christmas and it has been shown that the amount of data not collected is negligable. Rather similar to missing a strand of hair. It doesn't have any affect.

Posts on this over Christmas could disappear!

[nick sussex]

Two major SSW in the last 30 odd years, 1979 and 1984. The event tends to affect North America. It takes approximately six weeks from the start of the SSW to effect the USA. The 1979 event was of little influence on the UK weather and although in 1984 the UK experienced a cold January 1985, from what was an Omega Block, this may or may not have been a direct result of the SSW. I would not pin too much hope on an SSW being our Nirvana. Of course it will effect the Jetstream, cooler flow, and I would agree that it is a better setup than the current status quo, however that is still 4-6 weeks away and the models will not cover this till the New Year.

I think we need to separate out major and minor warmings, altogether there have been 30 recorded since 1952, on average one every two winters however there have been 9 since 2000.

I would agree they are not Nirvana for cold and snow prospects but just increase the chances of that, interestingly some researchers believe they are effected by the heat flux from the Atlantic into the atmosphere, the inference being increased heat flux would likely see an increase in these.

Even if we just see a minor warming this could still aid colder synoptics, of course the interaction of other teleconnections does play a big role.

By their very nature warmings can be very unpredictable in how they effect model output and often these are playing catch up.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens over the next week to ten days in the models.