Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[snowww]

cold is finally on the horizon in my view, from jan 3rd onwards.

i could be wrong but for my first ever prediction i'm going with my instinct.

[Great Plum]

Finally, a cold FI run...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

The 0z also makes more of the little low pressure which brings -5 temps across much of the country on the night of the 28th...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

FI is a bit more fun...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

ECM also has that low pressure with the -5s covering much of the country...

[weathe20]

Theme continues, PM air, then mild, PM air then mild.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm surprised that 00z has shown what it does this early BUT its on the right track IMO [EXPECT to see some tantalising model runs over next 10 days]. We see the NW'ly flow develop with the jet pushing south. ECM in FI showing the same type of theme. Thats whats to look for as we enter New Year, jet pushing south, NW/SE axis developing and period 7-10 Jan for 'trigger' LP or undercutter. Its all FI though, maybe models are just doing a 'tease'.

Mean time the storm 27/28 pushed a little further north and mild Xmas Day. BFTP

Edited December 23, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[weathe20]

I'm surprised that 00z has shown what it does this early BUT its on the right track IMO [EXPECT to see some tantalising model runs over next 10 days]. We see the NW'ly flow develop with the jet pushing south. ECM in FI showing the same type of theme. Thats whats to look for as we enter New Year, jet pushing south, NW/SE axis developing and period 7-10 Jan for 'trigger' LP or undercutter. Its all FI though, maybe models are just doing a 'tease'.

Mean time the storm 27/28 pushed a little further north and mild Xmas Day. BFTP

I presume we are looking East for January?

[mountain shadow]

A decent output this morning from a cold perspective, certainly we have a few more straws to clutch. GFS sees a decent FI northerly and ECM brings plenty of cold air into eastern europe curtesy of the Russian high.

I would say it's steady as she goes.

[Snowmad79]

As Weathe20 says same old same old. Atlantic slows down in pace a little and things dry up then it comes charging back in full force later in the run (stormy LP systems blitzing though the UK) with the best chance of anything wintery in the Northern and Western areas.

Anything other than that is way out of the ECM's reach at T300+. Not that I'm complaining.. I got a 4inch drop last time around, 2 days lying

Edited December 23, 2011 by Snow Time 79

[winterof79]

I'm surprised that 00z has shown what it does this early BUT its on the right track IMO [EXPECT to see some tantalising model runs over next 10 days]. We see the NW'ly flow develop with the jet pushing south. ECM in FI showing the same type of theme. Thats whats to look for as we enter New Year, jet pushing south, NW/SE axis developing and period 7-10 Jan for 'trigger' LP or undercutter. Its all FI though, maybe models are just doing a 'tease'.

Mean time the storm 27/28 pushed a little further north and mild Xmas Day. BFTP

Yes more of interest today.It should also be noted that any North westerleys i.e polar,will have a noticably colder feel than previously experienced as it gets increasingly colder around Greenland etc.I am not good with Jet forecasting but the propensity to my eye is for it to move south with time.

Edited December 23, 2011 by winterof79

[Snowmad79]

Here is the straw for those not understanding:

Low Pressure stalling to the East or North East and Heights rising over Greenland along with a southerly tracking jet. Looking at it at face value to the end it would just reset with HP building in again from the SW. Or, did I miss something ?

[Frosty.]

An ark would be required if that were to happen in 48hours. You have to go back to before 2006 for the last time there was no mountain snow in Scotland.

Yes I was a bit OTT but a lot of the current snow will be melting rapidly as very mild Tm air will be covering the uk on xmas day and boxing day with heavy rain for scotland and the freezing level above the summits. As for the 00z models, good signs of colder weather on the way soon. If we cast our minds back to last christmas when it was bitterly cold, little did we know that most parts of the uk would see no snow in jan or feb with a milder trend but this winter could see that in reverse with jan and feb seeing cold, icy and snowy weather becoming more frequent by around mid jan onwards.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[IDO]

GFS eye candy. changes on the horizon. F1 F1 F1, lol, the trend begins.....

You think?

No, that is just zonal, we get 48 hours of cool/cold as a low slips by. This will probably be downgraded as we close in. What follows is a reset to a high that will give us average/mild temps. That will concentrate us for a week before more zonal? Then we are in the last two weeks of January. This is when there will be a change if there is going to be one. That's when the cold pool will reach North America, a result of the stratospheric warming. If things don't pan out and the blocking fails then, I will resign myself to the fact that this Winter will be average.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As Weathe20 says same old same old. Atlantic slows down in pace a little and things dry up then it comes charging back in full force later in the run (stormy LP systems blitzing though the UK)

That is the thinking for first wek/10 days

BFTP

[bluearmy]

a few of you still seeing stuff that really isnt there. a slight amplification in the flow appears to heighten the chance of a northerly early jan - this is something the ens have played around with recently. however, to see a real change in the pattern will require more than this. we need to look hemispherically for a WAA event somewhere to blast some warm uppers into the arctic. in previous winters, the favoured spot has been the northeast pacific region. given that this has been an area that has seen repeated ridging so far this winter, i suspect it might be a good place to start.

[Nick F]

cold is finally on the horizon in my view, from jan 3rd onwards.

i could be wrong but for my first ever prediction i'm going with my instinct.

A decent output this morning from a cold perspective, certainly we have a few more straws to clutch. GFS sees a decent FI northerly and ECM brings plenty of cold air into eastern europe curtesy of the Russian high.

I would say it's steady as she goes.

I'm sure I'm looking at completely different charts! I really can't see any decent output from a cold perspective. Looking so deep into FI at cold evolutions and then seeing this as the signs of the SSW kicking in is fraught with danger, too many seeing what they want to see happen rather than waiting to see what will really happen. I'm sure that's not what the MOD thread was meant for.

Maybe we should start a fantasy model discussion!

[shedhead]

a few of you still seeing stuff that really isnt there. a slight amplification in the flow appears to heighten the chance of a northerly early jan - this is something the ens have played around with recently. however, to see a real change in the pattern will require more than this. we need to look hemispherically for a WAA event somewhere to blast some warm uppers into the arctic. in previous winters, the favoured spot has been the northeast pacific region. given that this has been an area that has seen repeated ridging so far this winter, i suspect it might be a good place to start.

Agree BA - on the face of it the latest outputs offer very little prospect of cold, or even a change to cold. That's not to say things won't change across the few days or the next week, but as things stand both the big two have us pretty much back to square one at T+192hrs, with LP over Iceland and HP over Iberia. Between now and then mild/very mild weather looks set to predominate at least until the middle of next week, but perhaps the ridge that develops thereafter will build far enough north to change what is currently being modelled to close out the year.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no straws to clutch, deep FI cold outlier for South, and thats not that cold away from Scotland

[Liam J]

Hmmm... Can't really see what the excitement is all about? Looking quite likely we'll be returning to a cool zonal pattern as we enter the new year with some pretty lively weather on offer.

I wish people would post charts and try to explain why exactly it's good from a cold lovers perspective etc?

Definitely a case of some people seeing things which aren't really there, as mentioned above.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Great Plum]

no straws to clutch, deep FI cold outlier for South, and thats not that cold away from Scotland

I know it's pedantic but the 0z is not a cold outlier at any point...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

It is one of the colder in FI but never the coldest...

Probably won't happen but it makes a change of seeing a mild FI!

[Duane S.]

no straws to clutch, deep FI cold outlier for South, and thats not that cold away from Scotland

The 00z OP is one of the colder runs, it is in no way an outlier.

Edited December 23, 2011 by s4lancia

[shedhead]

Hmmm... Can't really see what the excitement is all about? Looking quite likely we'll be returning to a cool zonal pattern as we enter the new year with some pretty lively weather on offer.

I wish people would post charts and try to explain why exactly it's good from a cold lovers perspective etc?

There's a very good reason why no one posts said charts Liam, namely there are currently still none to post, that's the bottom line as things stand. Chiono has just updated the strat thread to say patience will still be required for those of us wanting cold and if you look at the latest outputs from the models this morning I'd imagine few would argue.

Edited December 23, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

Hmmm... Can't really see what the excitement is all about? Looking quite likely we'll be returning to a cool zonal pattern as we enter the new year with some pretty lively weather on offer.

I wish people would post charts and try to explain why exactly it's good from a cold lovers perspective etc?

Definitely a case of some people seeing things which aren't really there, as mentioned above.

yes there is an increasing air of desperation from some of the cold/snow lovers it seems to me, and as you suggest not that much to really show to back up the hopes.

There is agreement at T+240 from the 3 main models at that stage but if you turn to the 500mb anomaly charts there is nothing there to suggest any real probability of a major wave length change in the offing out to 15 days ahead at least, probably longer. The colder shot is just that a colder shot. It may well be that the emphasis shifts from mild zonal to below normal/cold zonal in terms of temperature. That is something that occurs quite often and then may well go back to mild zonal. Eventually(!) something will occur that does change it but its not showing in the synoptic charts. Turn and learn from the highly informative posts from chiono in the relevant thread. Read his very first post, read the links-lots to learn. I'm sure he will drop in here and let us all know when it LOOKS like something may be developing to help the cold/snow lovers. Until then enjoy watching your spring bulbs come into flower; next door have two spring bushes coming back into flower!

Edited December 23, 2011 by johnholmes

[Jayces]

I'm sure I'm looking at completely different charts! I really can't see any decent output from a cold perspective. Looking so deep into FI at cold evolutions and then seeing this as the signs of the SSW kicking in is fraught with danger, too many seeing what they want to see happen rather than waiting to see what will really happen. I'm sure that's not what the MOD thread was meant for.

Maybe we should start a fantasy model discussion!

Actually not a bad idea.

NW could make it so that any one who posts an FI chart that they are getting excited about also as to post an explanation, maybe with diagrams as to how they believe it could evolve into the weather they are looking for.

The most useful ones I see here for those of us that don't understand the weather is where people have drawn arrows on the various lows / heights, troughs etc indicating where the need to move to to produce the wintry weather.

[Frosty.]

It may well be that the emphasis shifts from mild zonal to below normal/cold zonal in terms of temperature.

That will do for now, better than bartletts and weeks of swly mush eating winter away. The first half of december was pretty interesting with a few colder shots that were very welcome.

[nick sussex]

Probably the most zonal outlook I have ever seen from the model output this morning.

Looking further ahead, a couple of respected experts on the US forums are not optimistic about any jet amplification and the first half of January looks taken care of in terms of broad pattern.

Are you actually being serious about the most zonal outlook you've ever seen?

How about that awful run of winters we saw before, it may look zonal but the jet will slow down so perhaps zonal trending colder would be more likely.

Edited December 23, 2011 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

Please avoid point scoring and making general statements as to what might happen--discuss whats in the current output and link your views to there.