Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December

[IDO]

That's not correct and is best kept in the strat thread.

I was highlighting these two major SSW events to accentuate the lack of causality in the relationship between an SSW and the UK weather. There is little, if any scientific papers on SSW and its variance downstream.

SSW is an important topic within the models as it will create debate as to how each model will credit its effect. These are overlapping topics, and whilst the FI is as tedious as it is, quantifying the effect of a SSW on the models is rather more interesting.

[legritter]

thanks to the replies about my remarks about missing data , i guesed that was the issue but didnt realise it was such a touchy area , i will tread a little more carefully i think , ,icall the hours between 5pm and 8pm the golden hours ,loads of info coming in ,from models and members cheers

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like an unhappy christmas. GFS 12z is dross from start to finish and Met office 30 dayer now into last 3rd of jan, also suggests a continuation of the same dross showing across the models.

:( :( :(

[mountain shadow]

Some consistency in the GFS with height rises over the pole in furthest FI. Thats about as positive as it gets on this run.

[weathe20]

why not give the upcoming SSW a chance to impact on the models before writing the rest of winter off.

What SSW? Im sure this isnt actually forecast or even happend yet?? Think some models have shown signs this COULD happen. Correct me please.

[Bristawl Si]

Met office 30 dayer now into last 3rd of jan, also suggests a continuation of the same dross showing across the models.

:( :( :(

Agreed if one believes the professionals - our local weather guy on BBC, Ian Fergusson who posted regularly on here in winter 2009/2010 said the other evening he doesn't see any snow or cold on the horizon over the next 2 weeks, at least.

Models showing much the same for next couple of weeks - certainly 'typical' for down here anyway in Winter - that HP to the south of the UK looks to continue to influence our weather big time over the coming weeks IMO.

But worth pointing out that the models can often suddenly 'switch' in a v short period of time.

As for Strat warming, i have little knowledge except for what i read on here, but wasn't it Jan/Feb 2010 when there was a warming and the UK still didn't have a major cold/snow event in February that winter? I may be wrong on that count.

[IDO]

What SSW? Im sure this isnt actually forecast or even happend yet?? Think some models have shown signs this COULD happen. Correct me please.

Watch out, you will get deleted for mentioning the "S" word.

[Aceman]

Watch out, you will get deleted for mentioning the "S" word.

grow up, unless you have something constructive to say about the models then dont say anything at all as 99% of us dont want to read your trolling and cliche laden posts.

[feb1991blizzard]

Agreed if one believes the professionals - our local weather guy on BBC, Ian Fergusson who posted regularly on here in winter 2009/2010 said the other evening he doesn't see any snow or cold on the horizon over the next 2 weeks, at least.

Models showing much the same for next couple of weeks - certainly 'typical' for down here anyway in Winter - that HP to the south of the UK looks to continue to influence our weather big time over the coming weeks IMO.

But worth pointing out that the models can often suddenly 'switch' in a v short period of time.

As for Strat warming, i have little knowledge except for what i read on here, but wasn't it Jan/Feb 2010 when there was a warming and the UK still didn't have a major cold/snow event in February that winter? I may be wrong on that count.

To be honest ive taken that as a given now that we wont get anything in the next 2 weeks, i just hope to see some signs in FI even if they dont verify, may take a few bites at the cherry but apart from a little bit of purple weakening and becoming a lighter shade of blue at 384 on the 500mb charts, theres nothing, i was hoping to see the Mets 30 dayer show signs now as well, im not bothered if we have to wait or how long, as long as we get potent cold at some stage and i would like to see something giving me enough hope to model watch on Xmas day.

feb 2010 was still well below average though but with less snow than jan, we nearly got a reload from the east if memory serves me correctly.

[shedhead]

A progressive and aggressive run from the GFS - some intensely low heights at Northern latitudes as the pattern rolls along in unremitting fashion.

Yep, nothing showing up so far to suggest the models are picking up on any potential strat warming, but to fair it's early days and most realists are not expecting

this to manifest itself before early Jan, hopefully ahead of a middle or at least last 3rd of the month pattern change to cold. Short term looks mild/very mild in general, as

you have been suggesting for some time now, but I think the bookies are safe with their over 15.6c record bet on Xmas Day... at least as things currently stand.

Max and min temps between last Xmas Day and this one could be as much as 20-25c apart in many places, an all time record for consecutive Winters I'd imagine - no

doubt Mr Data will confirm or deny this at some stage.

Edited December 23, 2011 by shedhead

[IDO]

The latest FI in GFS is Fait Accompli as far as I am concerned. The models are consistently a derivative of a carousel of mediocrity. Each output mimics the other, with the delivery of, say "The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe" without that wardrobe. When we find it, then Narnia beckons, but until then, we can only hope...

"To travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive."

[nick sussex]

Who needs good cold synoptics when it's much more entertaining to see the wonderful model critiques this evening of the less than exciting output. Special praise for the post by "I'm dreaming of". An interesting and eloquently written view of things. Post of the day IMO.

In terms of the models so far this evening, nothing stands out but equally I've seen alot worse output in my time on the net.

We've just had some of the strongest positive AO readings for years for the last 6 weeks, generally two very positive AO months are not followed by another, what goes up must come down and generally with a big bump regarding the AO!

Let's just see what develops once the strat warming really kicks in, expect the unexpected!

[Snowmad79]

expect the unexpected!

Snow-in-a-can to outsell shovels this winter.......................

[nick sussex]

At the moment the real warming hasn't even started in the strat and so it's hard to say how the models will react. It's not an exact science and so I think before the thread sinks into a sea of despair let's just hold fire and see what happens at that point.

I'm not exactly averse myself to throwing out the odd melodramatic post if the output looks horrid from a cold perspective but for the timebeing I'm happy to just see what develops.

Edited December 23, 2011 by phil n.warks.
Removed OT comments.

[Frosty.]

please mods can you start a new moaning/whining thread as a lot of posts are just moaning about the lack of cold weather..thank u

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I do not recall strat warming being talked about as much as this last year, if at all?, it is made to sound like the holy grail of cold weather equal to the cure of cancer. It seems that strat warming has become the favourite for straw clutching, personally weather is fickle and no matter how much teleconnections point to one thing the weather will do what ever it wants. This time last week there were so many posts about winter's over because the models were showing flat zonal weather right into la la land but now things look more amplified and cooler, but some people never seem to learn that weather changes quickly and is un-predictable. The best thing to do is just look at the models and see what falls into place and what doesn't.

[Bobby]

The ECM has really ramped up that low pressure, could be a nasty storm now for the North

UKMO is similar too

[weathe20]

Think some posts get deleted depending on who you are. I mentioned the SSW and model output and got deleted. Nick mentions it and its ok.

[Frosty.]

Anyway, the Ecm 12z is cooking up a wind storm for the middle of next week and maybe some wintry showers to follow in the backwash of the depression as cold air digs southeast, and some frosts later next week.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Bottesford
Deleted quote removed

[lorenzo]

please mods can you start a new moaning/whining thread as a lot of posts are just moaning about the lack of cold weather..thank u

That thread still exists... http://forum.netweat...-winter-thread/

Overall today there have been many posts more suited to the Stratosphere Thread or other areas of the forum.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Bottesford
Slight snip of deleted posts

[Frosty.]

That thread still exists... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71590-the-moaning-about-winter-thread/

Thanks lorenzo, it could be quite busy in there for the next few months.

[JP1972]

I have to admit as a newbie, that reading so many posts about SSW you start to get the disntint impression that it's becoming a straw to clutch at in desperate times.

I do know that this isn't the case but to the less learned it may appear this way.

Out of interest it would be nice to see some stats as to the likelihood of SSW having such a dramatic impact on the models for our neck of the world!

[phil nw.]

I don`t wish to see this thread become too wrapped up in the Strato.warming forecasts let`s continue to discuss whats actually in the models and treat FI output as we always normally do--with caution.

I Know the current outlook is not as Wintry as some members and myself prefer but please keep balance to postings

Again i say the forecasted warming in the Strato.holds no promise of a UK cold spell-- but it does increase the chances somewhat.

Please keep postings friendly- after all it`s nearly Xmas. :smiliz19:

Edited December 23, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[mountain shadow]

I have to admit as a newbie, that reading so many posts about SSW you start to get the disntint impression that it's becoming a straw to clutch at in desperate times.

I do know that this isn't the case but to the less learned it may appear this way.

Out of interest it would be nice to see some stats as to the likelihood of SSW having such a dramatic impact on the models for our neck of the world!

That's actually not true. What we are seeing happening in the stratosphere is hopefully a precursor to a cold spell from mid January. This ties in with some winter forecasts including this sites.

It is a case of keep watching signs in the models for a change but any change is currently at the furthest reaches of the model output.

[bluearmy]

for gawds sake. IF there is a SSW (and at this stage, i would have thought anything imminent is the balance with little sign of 30hpa temps rising sharply at 60N), there will be a propensity for blocking at high lattitudes in the NH. blocking could be in a locale favourable to deliver cold to nw europe, it may not. its not straw clutching.

just a note that the op ecm 12z goes down a route which ejects an arctic high over western siberia. the spreads seem to show a cluster of runs which raise heights pretty well bang over the pole. now that is what you need to be looking for if you are after a pattern change in the NH. you must get those lighter cols into the arctic. ian has banged on about there being low low heights to the north. there has been absolutely no sign at all on all recent GEFS members of any higher heights peeking out from the arctic on our side of the pole. doesnt matter how amplified you get the flow, it wont last long unless you get a height rise further north which will enable any amplification to be cut off from the south and the jet to run along below it.