Annual CET

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for April-March fell to 11.05C.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for May-April fell to 11.00C. Looks like we will have stayed above 11C for the entire July-April period. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by summer blizzard

[LetItSnow!]

Modest temperatures during the spring lightly lessen the chance of a similarly record warm year but I will be interested to see how this year pans out. 2021 showed us anomalously cold months can still occur and we’ve seen a lack of notable warmth recently so there’s still chances of a relatively cooler year. Any year would be relatively cooler than last!

Funny how once upon a time the mid-10s were considered shocking, now that’s been the average year since 1997 with not much deviation since. 

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for June-May fell to 10.95C however June will erase this loss before we tackle July and August 2022. 

[LetItSnow!]

What with sea temperatures being so high, this will no doubt have a knock on effect for our weather. Given this warm June and persistent mild anomalies throughout this year who knows if 2023 will be another record warm year. It would take quite a lot to topple 2022.

[SqueakheartLW]

23 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

What with sea temperatures being so high, this will no doubt have a knock on effect for our weather. Given this warm June and persistent mild anomalies throughout this year who knows if 2023 will be another record warm year. It would take quite a lot to topple 2022.

We are actually trending very close to both 2022 and 2014 right now with the provisional rolling CET based on data up to 18th June 2023

We are currently the 8th warmest year on the CET record between 1878 and 2022 provisionally and currently only 0.152C behind 2022 at this stage.

Looking at this data here using only the years that went on to finish as the top 10 warmest (2022, 2014, 2006, 2020, 2011, 2018, 1999, 1990, 1949 and 2002) we are very much middle of the group at this stage compared with those years.

If we maintain the current deficit of 0.152C to 2022 we can see that in the list on the right of the data sheet we would come in 2nd position by the end of the year with an annual CET mean of 10.997C, just missing out on another 11C year but if we stay as we are it could be another close run thing that goes right down to the very last day of the year.

The other important factor here would be how 2 years in a row we smash the very warm year of 2014 and in fact looking at this list there is a striking number of very warm years since 2000 and 6 of the 10 are since 2010. Surely we cannot be talking about yet another 11C year just after last year already.

[Don]

31 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The other important factor here would be how 2 years in a row we smash the very warm year of 2014 and in fact looking at this list there is a striking number of very warm years since 2000 and 6 of the 10 are since 2010. Surely we cannot be talking about yet another 11C year just after last year already.

It wouldn't surprise me sadly.  I fear CC is really kicking in now!

[LetItSnow!]

Last 12 months now averaging 11.13 from July 2022 to June 2023

[kold weather]

Looks like the 12 month mean is about to drop away in the next 30-45 days, as this current troughy/Azores driven pattern looks quite entrenched. Even if it eases its hard to see anything in the ballpark of what the 2nd half of last summer provided!

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for August-July fell to 10.95C.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for September-August fell to 10.76C. 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 01/09/2023 at 17:42, summer blizzard said:

Rolling CET for September-August fell to 10.76C. 

A relatively modest bar to exceed from September 2022 so I wouldn't be too surprised to see this value rise again next month

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

A relatively modest bar to exceed from September 2022 so I wouldn't be too surprised to see this value rise again next month

Too early to say, September is the first month you can collapse in the second half. 

Looking ahead though, November and December probably cancel each other out so our value for the year is likely to be similar to our value at the end of October. September will be hard to hold down but October was about 2C above average. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for October-September rose to 10.98C. Has wiped out all progress since the May update. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by summer blizzard

[LetItSnow!]

Persistent mildness and a lack of genuine warmth during the spring lead me to thinking 2023 would perhaps be a more modest but since June we really are making up for it!

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Persistent mildness and a lack of genuine warmth during the spring lead me to thinking 2023 would perhaps be a more modest but since June we really are making up for it!

Looks like another 11C CET year is well and truly on again after what happened in June and September especially and with how mild October is looking for the first 10 days then could 2022 be under threat?

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.92C. Probably close to the end result since November and December should be close to cancelling each other out bar any abnormaility.

[SqueakheartLW]

How will 2023 as a year finish in comparison to the top 10 years on the CET record

Currently up to the latest date of 15th November 2023 we are provisionally in 2nd position, just ahead of 2014 with only 2022 ahead of this year at the current stage

15th November 2023

1     2022     12.069                    7     1999     11.389

2     2023     11.731                    8     1949     11.324

3     2014     11.655                    9     2011     11.274

4     1990     11.508                    10   2002     11.261

5     2020     11.469                    11   2018     11.233

6     2006     11.406

Assuming the estimated CET mean values from the latest GFS 00z for the rest of November 2023 come true this will give a November mean of 7.8C.

If this proved true then 2023's rolling mean would be 11.519C at the end of November 2023 which would still place us in 2nd position just ahead of 2014 with only 2022 higher than this year.

Below I have what the average December CET mean would need to be based on the above in order to place above 2022, between any of the top 10 as well as the value required in order for us to fail to set a top 10 year.

Year           Category                                           2023 Provisional CET mean        Details                                                                  
                   Dec 2023 = 9.67C (Dec 2015)        11.363C (+0.214C above 2022)   ANNUAL CET MEAN RECORD SMASHED
                   Dec 2023 = 7.17C or more            11.150C or more                           NEW ANNUAL CET MEAN RECORD SET
1 - 2022     Dec 2023 = 7.15 to 7.16C              11.149C                                          2022 RECORD ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 4.97C (91-20 Mean)   10.963C (Easy 2nd position)       2022 RECORD SAFE - 2014 DOWN TO 3RD
                   Dec 2023 = 4.80C to 7.14C            10.949C to 11.148C                     2ND POSITION SET - 2014 DOWN TO 3RD
2 - 2014     Dec 2023 = 4.79C                           10.948C                                          2014 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 3.80C to 4.78C            10.864C to 10.947C                     3RD POSITION SET - 2006 DOWN TO 4TH
3 - 2006     Dec 2023 = 3.79C                           10.863C                                          2006 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 2.50C to 3.78C            10.753C to 10.862                        4TH POSITION SET - 2020 DOWN TO 5TH
4 - 2020     Dec 2023 = 2.49C                           10.752C                                          2020 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 2.05C to 2.48C            10.716C to 10.751C                     5TH POSITION SET - 2011 DOWN TO 6TH
5 - 2011     Dec 2023 = 2.04C                            10.715C                                        2011 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 1.64C to 2.03C            10.680C to 10.714C                     6TH POSITION SET - 2018 DOWN TO 7TH
6 - 2018     Dec 2023 = 1.62C to 1.63C            10.679C                                         2018 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 1.41C to 1.61C            10.661C to 10.678C                     7TH POSITION SET - 1999 DOWN TO 8TH
7 - 1999     Dec 2023 = 1.40C                           10.660C                                         1999 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 1.35C to 1.39C            10.656C to 10.659C                     8TH POSITION SET - 1990 DOWN TO 9TH
8 - 1990     Dec 2023 = 1.34C                           10.655                                            1990 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 1.20C to 1.33C            10.643C to 10.654C                     9TH POSITION SET - 1949 DOWN TO 10TH
9 - 1949     Dec 2023 = 1.19C                           10.642C                                         1949 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 0.95C to 1.18C            10.622C to 10.641C                    10TH POSITION SET - 2002 DOWN TO 11TH
10 - 2002   Dec 2023 = 0.94C                           10.621C                                         2002 ANNUAL CET MATCHED
                   Dec 2023 = 0.93C or lower           10.620C or lower                         11TH OR LOWER SET - NO TOP 10 SET
                   Dec 2023 = -0.69C (Dec 2010)      10.482C                                         NO TOP 10 SET                                                  

[WYorksWeather]

Interesting looking chart. Just wondering how you calculate the values to end of November based on latest GFS, and if so whether it is worth at this stage taking a look at the GFS 35 day?

Might be interesting to follow this - the mean is bang average today, probably good for second position. By contrast, the GFS control for London today has some ridiculous mild spells in December. Might be enough to get us to first maybe?

Also of course the rest of November is still to play for - depending on to what extent next week's colder spell comes off, will determine the size of the mountain December would have to climb.

To be honest, if I had to guess whether we'll see a new annual CET record for this year, I'd go with no. Not for any particularly logical reason, but just because the year doesn't 'feel' like it should take the record.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.77C. 

I'd have said it would be difficult to match last year but actually we did get the cold start. 

[Optimus Prime]

2023 has been confirmed as the equal warmest year (equal to last year that is !!!) on record. At 11.1 C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

0.9 C above 1991 - 2020

1.2 C above 1981 - 2010

1.4 C above 1971 - 2000

1.6 C above 1961 - 1990

~1.9 C above pre-industrial average.

[TheOgre]

I did not expect 2023 to be as warm as 2022 this time last year! I wonder if it’s just a warm blip or was 2022 the start of a new distinct warming trend? Imagine if 2024 was even warmer!

[LetItSnow!]

23 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

I did not expect 2023 to be as warm as 2022 this time last year! I wonder if it’s just a warm blip or was 2022 the start of a new distinct warming trend? Imagine if 2024 was even warmer!

Hoping we can manage a cooler year as three 11C years in a row would completely obliterate all normalcy and be a black flag, let alone a red one! I think three in a row is pushing it though and anticipate a cooler year this year, however cooler could mean 10.7, 10.5 or even low 10s. It could do a complete surprise on us and be in the 9s but I don't see that happening. Perhaps it'll be like 1991 was after 1989 and 1990, though of course with higher global temps.

[Optimus Prime]

22 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

I did not expect 2023 to be as warm as 2022 this time last year! I wonder if it’s just a warm blip or was 2022 the start of a new distinct warming trend? Imagine if 2024 was even warmer!

Depends on what you're measuring. Decadal, 2010 - 2019 wasn't as warm as 2000 - 2009 which would indicate a period of cooling. But each 30-year period has shown a pronounced warming trend since the 71-000 baseline compared to its predecessor.

I don't think many were expecting a full 24 month period to average this high so soon. I guess we'll see how the climate responds to the inevitable La Nina and how much cooling is experienced. 

[Optimus Prime]

In terms of the UK the mean average was 9.97 C, thus the 2nd warmest after 2022 (10.03 C)

Separately:

Scotland: 3rd warmest at 8.28 C (2022 8.49 & 2014 8.43 C)

Northern Ireland: 2023 easily the warmest at 10.17 C and the first 10 + year (2022 2nd at 9.83 C)

Wales: easily warmest at 10.41 (2022 2nd at 10.22 C)

Comparatively, Scotland is now experiencing years that are significantly warmer than England's coldest year of modern times; 1963 at 7.95 C. England's 7.95 C in 1963 matches Scotland's most recent really cold year in 2010 which was also 7.95 C.

Different planet to today's...