Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Backtrack]

Too early to worry about "Polar Westerlys" You use the key word - potential - lots will change but at last we have potential

Of course it will, 10 days is a long time in meteorology. A definite trend to cooler weather now showing in the charts and ensembles. How cool remains to be seen.

Now we play the waiting game.

[SnowObsessor90]

My advice campers is to go spend the next 7 days away from the models, come back and we may be looking forward to something.

The next 7 days are a write off though, so unless you enjoy painstakingly watching prospects 240hrs+ then stay away, because it is painful and torturous! Just speaking from experience to the newbies. We could have 5 days of excellant charts in FI, even hitting the T168hrs in 3-4 days and woooop it will be gone.

I know I said I was do exactly that a week or so ago but I just can't so it looks like more tortue to come for me then.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I know I said I was do exactly that a week or so ago but I just can't so it looks like more tortue to come for me then.

Hahaha if we kept going away from the models for a week each time a bad output showed, we'd end up in January 2013!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Nice to see some optimism in here.

Important ECM coming up. Hopefully it will stick with the negative AO trend and start to bring things a little further forward.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Summer Sun]

ECM has been a bit of a tease I think, it's been showing a gradual cool down for a couple of days, but probably brings in changes too quickly in FI. Would be good to see the ECM in agreement with the GFS, that cold pooling over Europe doesn't look too shabby either. Could give any easterlies a real 'kick'

Didn't have you down as a coldie, good to have you on board Gavin.

I do like cold and snow but the amount we had last winter got tiresome in the end but good snow fall I like.

Now back on topic

12Z ens

Edited January 5, 2012 by Gavin D

[A Winter's Tale]

Yes it's good to see some optimism in here for once! There have been a few interesting runs lately and even the GFS has got a little bit more interesting. However, I do warn you that the models will constantly chop and change until we do get an agreement. I think we should just keep an eye on the models and the stratosphere thread as things will change, but the good news is that there's a lot of winter left and the models have been improving recently. We've got plenty of time left for the final breakthrough that may lead to an interesting period of winter weather!

[ChartViewer]

For me the interesting thing is to play the Jetstream animation here on Netweather it does seem to go from a jet raging over the top of the UK, to a more Southerly tracking jet or at least one that seems to want to go South of the UK..........That must be good news for coldies i should add as any jet raging across us really isnt what you would want to see for cold.

Link is on the Netweather datacentre jetstream forecast...run the animation...is quite cool.

Or ami mis reading it?

Edited January 5, 2012 by ChartViewer

[NorthernRab]

I do like cold and snow but the amount we had last winter got tiresome in the end but good snow fall I like.

Now back on topic

12Z ens

Highland GFS Ensembles would probably be more illuminating than the Aberdeen ones, seeing as it's currently looking like our best bet is for cold to come from the north rather than the east.

[Isolated Frost]

The strat and tech threads are the ones to watch. Good post SnowBallz btw, those who follow the NWP's run-by-run, and those who look at the technical side to things, and will therefore have a substantial amount more of knowledge and guidance on threads like this.

ECM the model to watch, the GFS has disappointed me personally and I believe it's all eyes on the ECM runs if you are going to choose a NWP to couple any further expectations from the technical side of things. ECM 12z yesterday was marvellous and a very good scenario, with the latest strat update, and a closing in of that timescale, I think 216 will pose some interest as well as 240 on the ECM 12z.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO from Sunday to Wednesday is settled outlook.

[mcweather]

12z ensembles are far from shabby too with a good few down between minus 5.and minus 10 towards the end.

Edited January 5, 2012 by mcweather

[phil nw.]

UKMO from Sunday to Wednesday is settled outlook.

12z ensembles are far from shabby too with a good few down between minus 5.and minus 10 towards the end.

Thanks for the information guys but wouldn`t it be better if you could provide links/images.?

[Snowmad79]

I have to be honest, GFS 12z again, does not look good to me for cold unless your talking post 300+ and is in the most part, a mild run. Even the ensembles just posted continue to show a sneaky trend of warming!. The ensemble mean is definitely on the rise and although it continues to show a dip, the mean actually has been prolonging the milder side of the runs.

Yesterday and the day before, the mean was hugging 0c 850's for London and since then, including the latest ens, the mean has started to lean towards the 5c 850 mark.

The 13th of Jan is when the original dip in temps was shown in the ensembles and this evening, it is now the 15th. That said, there are also a lot more members heading towards the -10c 850 hpa mark towards the end of the run.

At this stage there is still more chance of settled weather followed by another onslaught of stormy atlantic weather and the risk of being stuck in a phase of south westerlies than there is a full on Northerly.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-192.png?12

[phil nw.]

Well here is the London GFS ens graph

Stil plenty of bunching around the Zero,slight downward mean towards the end,but no very cold members as yet.

[mcweather]

Well here is the London GFS ens graph

Stil plenty of bunching around the Zero,slight downward mean towards the end,but no very cold members as yet.

I don't know about that Phil I counted at least 7 down between minus five and minus ten at the end there. Which out of twenty at this stage is pretty good.

[Paul]

Latest video forecast from Michael Fish is below - also including a look at what a sting jet is:

[phil nw.]

I don't know about that Phil I counted at least 7 down between minus five and minus ten at the end there. Which out of twenty at this stage is pretty good.

Yeah maybe i was a bit flippant.

I was thinking we might get one or two more -10Cs to indicate some interest from GFS for a change.As for the others we really have as many +5C members as -5C which you could argue is a fairly average cluster around the mean.A slight cooling trend at the end as i said,but no clear signal for a cold spell imo.

Edited January 5, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[SP1986]

Ensembles highlight that the 14th is the end of the reliable timeframe for trends. After that there is no real give aways about where it is going. I suspect the ECM will follow a similar trend to the GFS, allowing links to the Arctic over eastern Canada, but swept along by the jet.

[January Snowstorm]

ECM not looking too great in the reliable timeframe anyway, FI yet to come out.

One thing that strikes me is how reluctant this Bartlett type high is to move away.

Whilst I know the PV is over Greenland, is there any particluar reason this high is remaining in situ so long ?

Has it anything to do with sea temps near our coasts or down off Spain or is it just a symptom of the PV being so far North

[stewfox]

I don't know about that Phil I counted at least 7 down between minus five and minus ten at the end there. Which out of twenty at this stage is pretty good.

Isn't there usually such a scatter outside the reliable timeframe ?

Anyone got one for early December to compare, were they showing less scatter post T168

I dont 'see' a signal in them for potential cold ??

Shouldn't we want to see a few -15c, -20c start appearing in next 3/4 days.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

T192 ECM looking interesting. Deep LP to our SW approaches, possibly more amplification behind?

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think regardless of what happens, the increase in heights in the Arctic will have the effect of pushing the jet south so perhaps something akin to early/mid Dec is on the cards with plenty of colder zonality but not quite amplifying enough to allow the ridging of heights to where they matter for cold and snow potential.

[SP1986]

T192 ECM looking interesting. Deep LP to our SW approaches, possibly more amplification behind?

BFTP

This is what the GFS has consistently been throwing up, but then sweeping it along on a strengthening jet. I think we can be sure that where will be some attempt at a link made between a displaced Azores High and a high over Canada, however noticed the link cannot be forged on the ECM because there are not true heights over the Arctic at that time. This limits what the high can actually do - and until we see a true link anchor developing, the jet will continue sweeping it eastwards - I for tonights run I think the ECM will be similar to the GFS in that respect.

It could turn out differently though of course.

[Isolated Frost]

240 ECM not that great, pretty similar to the 240 ECM on this morning's 00z, but 12 hours further on again.

[Harsh Climate]

Poor ECM, hopefully it won't have much support.