Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[shedhead]

I definitely agree with you about getting a chance to dry out shedhead. However I do think that the coming days will see the models firming up on our way out of the mild and into something colder. At this distance ( ie still ten days out) I wouldn't expect it to look like anything more than 50/50 but I think those odds will start to fall a lot more firmly in favour of cold over he coming days.

Like most on here mcweather I hope you are right. I suppose if you take the half glass full route, a 50-50 shot at something cold from 10 days hence is a huge improvment, because at present there is a 0% chance of anything cold prior to that. As other wise sages on here have said it really is too close to call right now and I think that is exactly right, but again as recklessabandon also pointed out these improved synoptics at T+240hrs have been showing up since Dec 31st. 6 days on we still appear no closer, I just don't think that can be ignored if we're to be suitably objective about future prospects.

Edited January 5, 2012 by shedhead

[nick sussex]

Regarding your post GP could a case be made for the Azores high displacing with a more amplified pattern and energy running over the top, so some colder conditions but not desperately so before the next warming kicks the PV much further west and you see proper high pressure over Greenland.

Is that realistic?

[Glacier Point]

Perfectly plausible Nick, especially as a large number of ensemble solutions follow that option.

[mcweather]

Thanks for the update GP. (POST 733) Things ticking along quite nicely then.

[nick sussex]

Perfectly plausible Nick, especially as a large number of ensemble solutions follow that option.

Thanks for that GP.

[Harsh Climate]

Those are just screen shots of the whole ECM op run.

Look at the dates of each one.

Wheres my taxi :lol:

[The Northern Ramper]

I'm not, I'm basing it on all available modelling. No one knows, or indeed rarely ever knows where FI begins. It is very subjective, the cut off between the low and high res parts of the GFS run

being the only quantifiable benchmark imo.

I usually call it when the ensembles split.

[bluearmy]

not shocked that many are expecting something wintry before mid month. possible but unlikely. the ecm mean/spreads at day 10 show a clustering of high heights towards southern greenland whilst a cluster of renewed cold energy apprears newfoundland. if this phasing of clustering becomes a trend, where will that energy go ? either a large amount of WAA to beef up the greeny ridge or into the southern arm. all supposition but starting to look as though there are several routes to proper cold appearing.

[Paul White.]

not shocked that many are expecting something wintry before mid month. possible but unlikely. the ecm mean/spreads at day 10 show a clustering of high heights towards southern greenland whilst a cluster of renewed cold energy apprears newfoundland. if this phasing of clustering becomes a trend, where will that energy go ? either a large amount of WAA to beef up the greeny ridge or into the southern arm. all supposition but starting to look as though there are several routes to proper cold appearing.

Good morning bluearmy

Sorry for asking this I might be really stupid but more Likely tired because of the crazy high winds across west Yorkshire last night. Reading your post I am not sure where you stand. Are you siding with the thoughts of GP or are you expecting a "as you were" with a continuation of low heights to the north and a strong Azores high?

Regards

Paul

[Radiating Dendrite]

Interesting GFS run from the 6z.

It certainly seems to be chucking everything including the kitchen sink when it comes to its FI outputs.

Somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere is going to end up very cold looking at the GFS 6z, but at the moment we are no clearer whether that will be us, Eastern Europe or Newfoundland etc!

[Climate Man]

06Z started well with HP over the Arctic but out of the reliable it all went pear shaped again - similar to the 12Z - still all to play for. Don't discount a big change as 10 days comes into the reliable time frame.

[Tim Bland]

Another poor GFS run (06z) we see a lobe of the PV coming down from the NW giving some snow to the North in FI but appart from that its as you were. I hope the ensembles are still showing some possibilities. It would be encouraging if at least the occasional GFS OP showed what many are predicitng though!

[phil nw.]

The modelling of the Aleutian ridge is something that shows up frequently in the medium range and it does agian in the later 006Z run.

This is the first step change to the pattern readjustment it seems.

Several runs have shown this to push the core of the vortex towards our side of the pole and this would prolong our current westerly flow.

Hopefully further forecasted warmings will split the vortex to allow some Arctic ridging on our side,otherwise this type of vortex displacement does us no favours.

Meanwhile the ECM long Ens. graph

Few cold runs,control dips at the end though.

My concern is the step change downwards in these graphs showed around the 13th until recently,now this has disappeared.

Things can change very quickly though as the background Strato.warmings filter down but will we benefit or will the cold go elsewhere,that`s the big unknown.

[Frosty.]

There is nothing in the operational runs for cold lovers to get excited about but the ecm 00z shows a pressure rise to the northeast of the uk towards T+240 hours whereas the Gfs 06z has a low in that position in that timeframe. Next week is looking more settled for the southern half of the uk with fog and frost and some pleasant sunshine but further north it will probably remain more atlantic driven although nowhere near as windy or unsettled as this week, further into FI shows a descent into very disturbed weather once again with a mix of mild and average zonal.

[Bobby]

The 06z ensembles look fairly relentlessly zonal throughout with a raging jet stream, similar to how they looked for the first half of December.

Not very encouraging, they were looking better for a while.

[mcweather]

The 06z ensembles look fairly relentlessly zonal throughout with a raging jet stream, similar to how they looked for the first half of December.

Not very encouraging, they were looking better for a while.

are 06z ensembles out already then

[Bobby]

They are on Meteociel (the individual runs)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0

[Frosty.]

The 06z ensembles look fairly relentlessly zonal throughout with a raging jet stream, similar to how they looked for the first half of December. Not very encouraging, they were looking better for a while.

From a cold standpoint, the models are continuing to look abysmal, the ecm has downgraded it's cold potential from yesterday and now digs the trough further west and the gfs just throws petrol on the fire so to speak in fi with a return to the atlantic zonal express with those feeble little cold outbreaks confined to northern scotland. the first half of this winter is more or less over now and has been sub standard, with the christmas warmth being the low point but next week it looks like some fog and frost is likely further south but milder further north.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Frosty039

[Harsh Climate]

They are on Meteociel (the individual runs)

http://www.meteociel...0&code=0&mode=0

They only go out to 180h. upto 180h has never looked anything other than zonal. Its between 200-250h that a change might begin to show

[weathe20]

The 06z ensembles look fairly relentlessly zonal throughout with a raging jet stream, similar to how they looked for the first half of December.

Not very encouraging, they were looking better for a while.

Can you post a chart to show that?

[bluearmy]

Good morning bluearmy

Sorry for asking this I might be really stupid but more Likely tired because of the crazy high winds across west Yorkshire last night. Reading your post I am not sure where you stand. Are you siding with the thoughts of GP or are you expecting a "as you were" with a continuation of low heights to the north and a strong Azores high?

Regards

Paul

Paul - i am confident that we are headed into a cold scenario. when that begins is open to debate. initially i suspected by mid month after the xmas output began to show the seeds of change, then the 20th of the month given the strength of the northeast canadian vortex. however, this may be also be a bit too early. i see the 06z gefs are way less impressive for cold than the 00z set were with most of the colder runs due to topplers. extended ens modelling continuing to struggle as expected. anyway, cold is my call but when this commences is the question.

[Bobby]

They only go out to 180h. upto 180h has never looked anything other than zonal. Its between 200-250h that a change might begin to show

No they go all the way to 384, click the 'suite' at the bottom of the red dots.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Barb-

[Harsh Climate]

No they go all the way to 384, click the 'suite' at the bottom of the red dots.

Well as you where then, they suck! lol

[stratty]

No they go all the way to 384, click the 'suite' at the bottom of the red dots.

....or stay on this site and use these bad boys

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;type=panel;

[Radiating Dendrite]

....or stay on this site and use these bad boys

http://www.netweathe...ewer;type=panel;

But they are delayed compared to meteociel (still on 00z) and the meteociel show each ensemble run in detail.

Sorry netweather, but meteociel win on this one.