Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[chionomaniac]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?04-0

YES

This is almost the carbon copy of the ECM 12z 240 HR yesterday!

S

Steve could you please explain why for the members that don't see cold potential in this chart.

Thanks

[Mark Neal.]

These models really are a tease, no real signs in the medium term and out of nowhere we have seen a few runs of something to cheer about, but as they go again and everyone starts to lose hope, deep in FI one ecm the eye candy return. You couldn't write the script.. :S Lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to complicate matters, the 12z ECM completely different to the GFS at 216-240 with a sharp Scandi trough and increasing pressure in the north Atlantic.

[mcweather]

Run by run frame by frame, the latest models run because the new gospel. Many have tried to explain, most have failed. Watching the same old doom and gloom posters writing off the next 4/6/8 weeks after a poor day on the model front always makes me giggle. You could set your watch by 'em.

Couldn't agree more S4L. You would think by now that after several years of model watching that members would catch on that changes in model output very often come right out of the blue. After all as we headed into November 2010 the charts looked pretty dire and zonal but model change came quite suddenly and before we knew it we were heading towards a coldest December for 100 years scenario.

[Summer Sun]

Short term ECM is not good for coldies but longer term there is hope

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Other charts have been covered above

[Isolated Frost]

Goody gumdrops, and with the potential at 216, we have the outcome at 240- wowza!

Chart of the winter for me. A ridge from greenland to the azores and beyond, long stretch northerlies with height rises imminent to the n/ne after that, and if the ECM ran a loop 5-8 days after this chart we would be having dreams... That Aleutian Ridge as well, phwoar it's packing some power, a real blocking high with high geopotential heights..

[Matty M]

12z ECM is good.

But will the LP over East CAD not just run through Greenland.

I dont think the height rises are enough to split the PV effectively.

Look at the 850hpa temps, cold still stuck over Greeny East CAD

Certainly though, the ECM gives us coldies hope!

[Harsh Climate]

Great ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

Also if this was to verify I don't think it would be a toppler, because the alignment of winds from that low pressure over newfoundland is perfect, a straight southerly pumping up WAA into greenland.

[TEITS]

These models really are a tease, no real signs in the medium term and out of nowhere we have seen a few runs of something to cheer about, but as they go again and everyone starts to lose hope, deep in FI one ecm the eye candy return. You couldn't write the script.. :S Lol

Actually you could tell from the ECM +168/+192 charts that +240 was going to be a belting run.

A couple of key points need to be made.

1. A change from a positive to a negative AO is going to slowly occur as we gradually see a weakening of the PV.

2. Members need to realise the models at +168 aren't going to show a biting N,ly or E,ly its this timeframe that the building blocks towards a change will occur.

3. It has been said many times that a change might not occur until mid Jan onwards.

4. Look at the ECM and note all that warm air piling into the Arctic.

[SMU]

Im just leaving to go out-

I would say this important point though- for anything MORE than transient cold I would say to someone cast their eyes at the gap between greenland & the canadian Maritimes-

If the 216 > 240>264 is to see sustained blocking moving up to svalbard then the shortwaves in the gap need to be heading NORTH or NORTH EAST- not east or south east-

once they get up the western coast of greenland then we are in the ballgame- you see the 240 chart pushing them ENE because the Northern arm of the jet is looping over greenland- then east & sharply returning SW over NW europe-

I would say that 240 very good-but not quite ideal- its still undecided whether that would be a toppler or not because in more detail the heights in terms if you look close the wave isnt penetrating into greenland after 216-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-240.GIF?04-0

50 /50 borderline for a + 5 day cold spell out of the ECM- possibly a 3 day toppler-

Also because the Aleution High hasnt ridged across the pole, its being flattened a little to much

S

Steve

[cooling climate]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?04-0

YES

This is almost the carbon copy of the ECM 12z 240 HR yesterday!

S

I would say it is even better than yesterdays t240 chart.

A segment of the vortex dropping into Europe and heights being

strengthened over western north America into Alaska and the Arctic

cutting off another segment of vortex over eastern US. This in my book

would lead to a very amplified pattern with a very strong greenland

block and a very potent northerly outbreak across the UK and Europe.

With the potential now showing in the ECM stratosphere charts we

could be in for one hell of a ride during the second half of January and

through February.

Would tie in nicely with my long range prediction.

Edited January 4, 2012 by cooling climate

[Cloud 10]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?04-0

YES

This is almost the carbon copy of the ECM 12z 240 HR yesterday!

S

Not bad at all.

yesterday> today>

Tis a bit of a novelty comparing 12z to 12z,JH will be shocked!

[JP1972]

So how come the ECM sends us to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow but the other models don't?

[nick sussex]

This is like pulling teeth!

The ECM rides in to town to save the thread from imminent implosion! Thankfully this saga has only got so long to run, after the GFS 06hrs run dropped the Aleutian ridge, its back again on both the ECM and GFS.

The problem is it doesn't really get going till 192hrs. In terms of agreement between the ECM/GFS they both prog that troughing in the eastern USA at 168hrs, I think that will verify but as for everything after that who knows, theres still too much uncertainty with what happens to the PV.

[Brum Watcher]

mamma mia of an ECM, first proper eye candy of winter 11/12...hope it keeps going

[SP1986]

The ECM reminds me a little of the 0z charts from the GFS this morning, on paper it sets up a potentially interesting scenario, and in itself would probably deliver a northerly, however without a strong blocking anchor (over 1030mB) over the Greenland plateau and with a certain amount of energy still forcing against the jet, it would probably produce a toppler, until the next wave came in perhaps.

I suppose to cold lovers this is a step in the right direction, and well it is a step in the right direction if that's what you want, although bare in mind it is only one run, and can and will revert back.

Nothing can be discounted at the moment; the ECM or the GFS

[Gibby]

Hi folks.

The big three tonight show the current strong winds and often wet conditions loosening there grip over the oncoming days as the Azores High pulls itself to a position close to Southern Britain early next week. This will have the net effect of more settled conditions in the South with average temperatures and rather cloudy skies for the most part. Further North and Low pressures which by then are well to the North of Britain remain close enough to bring further outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times there. By 144hrs all models show High pressure close to the South while in the days that follow a divergence between GFS and ECM develops. GFS continues to show High pressure anchored to the South of the UK with a broadly Westerly flow still dominant though much less potent than of late. Its Ensembles look fairly ordinary tonight with very few members diversifying from the general normal pattern for this stage in January with regard to temperature which is a little concerning from a cold perspective. ECM though looks much more interesting in its latter stages pulling the High back West into the Atlantic with strong ridging North through the Atlantic. With a large and deep Scandinavian Low pressure cold arctic winds are directed towards the UK bringing increasingly wintry showers SE through Britain by next Saturday.

In Summary there is definitely hints of a pattern change around day 6 or 7 tonight. The two options are illustrated by GFS and ECM operational models. As the jet weakens and buckles things could go either way shown by the two but if ECM were to verify in the days that follow from day 10 things could get quite interesting for those looking for cold and snow. We're just lacking consistency at the moment and need to see a similar evolution to ECM mirrored by tomorrows output. Here's hoping.

[kev238]

Well 2 evenings in a row, ECM has produced interesting charts around 216-240. Will be interesting to see if they Move forwards towards the 168 range.

So, definitely signs a change could happen around mid month but no guarantees as yet!

[mcweather]

Very nice ECM 240 tonight

Am I right in thinking the ECM has the best verification stats of the lot.

Very close to the middle of January too

Now let me think which forecaster that said our first chance of change to cold would come mid Jan.

( scratches head sarcastically)

Oh yes our very own GP.

Oh ye of little faith.

[IDO]

"Now is the winter of our discontent".

Shakespeare could not have written more eloquently of this season so far. The GFS continues to model a zonal flow punctured by the interloping of its bedfellow; the autonomous high. But do not forsake the signs, they remain lucid; the promise of tomorrow lies beneath the veil of mist that is...time. "Patience and fortitude conquer all things".

"O say, can you see, by the dawn's early light / what so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming."

"The changes are a coming" and whether they will be, the syrup of Ipecac or the gold at the end of the rainbow, not even the Seven Wise Men of Greece would elucidate, with any prescience.

Let us wait and see, and remember "Despair ruins some, presumption many."

[snowblues]

Looking at the ECM 216 N/ Hemispher chart, is it all that cold digging down from Canada and pushing as far south as possible fo us,then allowing the Atlantic high to squeeze its self through.Just a noobie trying to work things out.

mike

[ITSY]

Was the ECM op an outlier? Tis the question! After last nights GFS op and this afternoons ECM, changes cannot be ruled out - I feel it's in the balance!!

[mcweather]

I know the big guns on here often talk about warm advection up the west coast of Greenland being a pre-requisite for cold conditions in our part of the world well the the ECM 240 advects it all the way form Ascension island to the north pole.

Now thats what I call WAA.

[Harsh Climate]

Nao and AO looking better again. Still though is very much in the balance :/

[ITSY]

Those look as though they support ECM blocking!