The Modern Met Office's Performance

[stewfox]

I'm agreed.

There simply doesn't seem to be any correlation between what's happening on the ground and the relevant warnings (if any at all).

And it seems to have got worse in the last couple of years.

There should have been an amber warning across most of England,Scotland and Wales for last night and a large portion of today and instead, even though the winds were blowing upto severe gale force until a couple of hours ago, there weren't any???

And some of the folk on here seem to think that acceptable.....?

I was amazed at the wind and rain down here , to focus looking at T240 for cold

A peak of 102mph last night up north and a few 'amber warnings'.

[Adi F]

This thread sort of suggests that we are all sheep and need a nanny state to tell us what to do!

The MetO is a service for the dumb masses that wake up in the morning, go to work, return home and complain all evening before going to bed. Just to the same again tomorrow. They are the ones that need Government to tell them what to do, how to do it and complain when they are not told. This is a weather forum, I would like to think people that visit are a little bit more aware of the weather and can take bits of information from many sources and make their own mind up and make informed decisions.

Its not the MetO fault that your bin was blown across the road or your roof was blown off. It would have happened if the weather warnings were under or over stated. If you drive a high sided vehicle you would probably be working for a company or at least be self employed. That company has a legal responsibility to make a decision whether you should continue or not. And, if you make that decision to stop because of the risk; then your company should stand by you. Every company that had a vehicle blown over should be fined £20'000.

We are all capable of making decisions and if we feel it unsafe to do something then we should not do it. That also go's for taking risks, if we perceive a risk as a minor risk then we have made the decision to take that risk. How can others dictate what we should do or not do.

I make that decision every time I go out storm chasing. If I am flattened by a tree or struck by lightning then so be it, I know the risk and I made the decision; so I have to live (or die) with the consequences.

[La Bise]

Yeah, wake up sheep and stop moaning!

[UV-RAY]

It's kind of funny that some of the detractors of other forecasters, are out in force defending all things MetO. I've got the greatest respect for what they do, but as one poster commented since AGW became the new religion, things have taken a turn for the worse over the years. Thankfully they seem to be getting back on track at what they do best, and that is forecasting the weather and not climate.

[Insert Name Here]

This thread sort of suggests that we are all sheep and need a nanny state to tell us what to do!

The MetO is a service for the dumb masses that wake up in the morning, go to work, return home and complain all evening before going to bed. Just to the same again tomorrow. They are the ones that need Government to tell them what to do, how to do it and complain when they are not told. This is a weather forum, I would like to think people that visit are a little bit more aware of the weather and can take bits of information from many sources and make their own mind up and make informed decisions.

Its not the MetO fault that your bin was blown across the road or your roof was blown off. It would have happened if the weather warnings were under or over stated. If you drive a high sided vehicle you would probably be working for a company or at least be self employed. That company has a legal responsibility to make a decision whether you should continue or not. And, if you make that decision to stop because of the risk; then your company should stand by you. Every company that had a vehicle blown over should be fined £20'000.

We are all capable of making decisions and if we feel it unsafe to do something then we should not do it. That also go's for taking risks, if we perceive a risk as a minor risk then we have made the decision to take that risk. How can others dictate what we should do or not do.

I make that decision every time I go out storm chasing. If I am flattened by a tree or struck by lightning then so be it, I know the risk and I made the decision; so I have to live (or die) with the consequences.

I disagree. There are countless systems in Public and Private UK that use the severe weather warning status as the discriminator with which to adjust the service level required.

An example of which is the haulage industry which will hold or release a driver on a journey by looking at the alert state in effect along the route.

As you say, "The MetO is a service for the dumb masses" and this is the very reason that the weather alerts are colour coded for simplicity.

The haulage companies do not employ their own meteorologists, nor should they have to as their taxes pay for a METO to do that for them.

Your post does however capture the seriousness inherent in having the responsibility to advise whether or not it is safe to carry out certain activities at certain times. It does not however place it on the correct doorstep.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Insert Name Here

[Paul Sherman]

Things like Temperature and 5-7 days ahead for General Weather they are pretty much spot on IMO!

The things that let them down is this system of Red, Amber and Green Warnings, A red Alert should be issued once an event is ongoing, Amber if Severe Weather is Expected. These early warnings do nothing to help their cause as things change on our Island very very quickly and most of the early warnings (3-5 days before) can become out of date in the hours leading upto the event, similarly as things change a warning might not be strong enough (As was the case yesterday)

What about suggesting a Forum for the Meto to get real time weather conditions from people (Not crackpots who would post every time they see a flake of snow but level headed people to Email them when weather conditions are rapidly changing different from their expected forecasts) I know I would gladly be a representative for SE Essex, I am sure they could get pretty much the whole country covered.

There are occasions when the Red Alerts (Pre Event) actually work as was the case of the Cumbria Floods when they pretty much nailed that 48-72 hour long area of rain and even I thought they were barking mad to predict the rainfall so long before the event. The Otterton St Mary case of the Incredible Hail was different to Cumbria in that it received the Red Alert as the event unfolded.

So many ticks but also area where they could do a lot better if they were open to suggestions

Paul S

[DAVID SNOW]

Things like Temperature and 5-7 days ahead for General Weather they are pretty much spot on IMO!

The things that let them down is this system of Red, Amber and Green Warnings, A red Alert should be issued once an event is ongoing, Amber if Severe Weather is Expected. These early warnings do nothing to help their cause as things change on our Island very very quickly and most of the early warnings (3-5 days before) can become out of date in the hours leading upto the event, similarly as things change a warning might not be strong enough (As was the case yesterday)

What about suggesting a Forum for the Meto to get real time weather conditions from people (Not crackpots who would post every time they see a flake of snow but level headed people to Email them when weather conditions are rapidly changing different from their expected forecasts) I know I would gladly be a representative for SE Essex, I am sure they could get pretty much the whole country covered.

There are occasions when the Red Alerts (Pre Event) actually work as was the case of the Cumbria Floods when they pretty much nailed that 48-72 hour long area of rain and even I thought they were barking mad to predict the rainfall so long before the event. The Otterton St Mary case of the Incredible Hail was different to Cumbria in that it received the Red Alert as the event unfolded.

So many ticks but also area where they could do a lot better if they were open to suggestions

Paul S

Come on Paul,how could you be a rep for SE Essex,,,, your hardly ever there :smiliz19:

[Paul Sherman]

Lol Ok

I would have to miss out May, June and August but that is the dull and boring Season down here anyways!

[wimblettben]

Although 70mph winds should have warranted a warning. I think the situation was a bit difficult to accurately predict because there were other factors at play and the wind speed wasn't just down to the tightness of the isobars for example.

They can only tell people what they know and there are sometimes small things that happen in the weather that can change the predicted outcome. People should also maybe learn like I did back in October when we were under a moderate warning of convective weather about the fact that just because weather services iether do issue warnings for your region or not, does not mean that those will be the exact conditions above your house. In reality they cannot always be taken as definite.

[La Bise]

It's kind of funny that some of the detractors of other forecasters, are out in force defending all things MetO. I've got the greatest respect for what they do, but as one poster commented since AGW became the new religion, things have taken a turn for the worse over the years. Thankfully they seem to be getting back on track at what they do best, and that is forecasting the weather and not climate.

Let me rephrase that for you..."Since the MetOffice, one of the best weather/climate science research center on the planet employing some of the best meteorologists and climatologists in the world, decided to inform us on AGW based on current scientific advice, a lot of people have come out of the woodwork and taken every opportunity to bash them on the head from their blogs, websites and media columns. Not one is ever likely to be the best at the science of climatology or meteorology. Most don't have the first clue about it in fact. The MetOffice are not perfect, made mistake, do get it wrong and it's obvious the general public is not particularly impressed with their warning system but implying their AGW research has somehow impacted on their capacity to do their job is quite simply untrue"

[Insert Name Here]

Let me rephrase that for you..."Since the MetOffice, one of the best weather/climate science research center on the planet employing some of the best meteorologists and climatologists in the world, decided to inform us on AGW based on current scientific advice, a lot of people have come out of the woodwork and taken every opportunity to bash them on the head from their blogs, websites and media columns. Not one is ever likely to be the best at the science of climatology or meteorology. Most don't have the first clue about it in fact. The MetOffice are not perfect, made mistake, do get it wrong and it's obvious the general public is not particularly impressed with their warning system but implying their AGW research has somehow impacted on their capacity to do their job is quite simply untrue"

How do you know this?

[Iceberg]

Quite simply the Meto/Hadley started investigating climate change back in the 80's, if anybody is seriously suggesting that the forecasts were better before then than now, then they really need their head examining. Secondly there are completely different teams/areas that investigate CC that issue 5 Day or less forecasts.

I have yet to see or hear about an organisation that provides an alerting system that is not 80% of the time almost identical to the Meto's.

Re the recent stormy weather and failure to predict to the very strong winds in places. Did any models predict the winds that occured and their distribution ?. The answer is no IMO. Therefore the Meto cannot go against the models unless they have some other information, if they did and the winds didn't occur they would be rightly in trouble.

All you can do is ask the Meto to issue warnings based on the best information they have and by and large this is what they do. Can it be done better ?, Yes, of course it can , is it one of the best in the world, yes without doubt.

[Coast]

From the Telegraph this morning:

Britain battered by hurricane force winds after forecasters underestimate strength of gusts

Parts of Britain were battered by hurricane force winds for the second time in a week yesterday after forecasters failed to predict the seriousness of the storms. Thousands of homes and businesses were left without electricity and several people were hurt as gusts of up to 93mph ripped across the country.

The Met Office admitted that the strength of the winds had exceeded its expectations, meaning huge areas of the country affected by the weather were not issued warnings.

The winds felled trees and damaged buildings, paralysing roads and railways and left several people trapped and injured – two days after storms claimed two lives. A woman and a 10-year-old boy were taken to hospital after a tree crashed on to their car outside a primary school in Shenley, Herts, yesterday morning. London Fire Brigade battled a string of wind-related incidents across the capital, including freeing a family trapped after a tree was blown onto their house in the early hours.

Dozens of fallen trees and power cables led to cancellations and delays to rail services across the country, causing overcrowding and forcing many commuters to abandon journeys, while several roads including the A66 in North Yorkshire were closed. Western Power Distribution said 6,000 properties in the West Midlands and 10,000 premises in the East Midlands were without electricity yesterday morning. The company said about 7,500 of its 2.5 million customers in south-west England saw power cuts, while Southern Electric said 1,000 properties in Salisbury, Wilts, were without electricity.

Britain's biggest freezer – a gigantic £9 million facility the size of four football pitches and owned by Partner Logistics in Wisbech, Cambs – was also ripped open as 60mph wind shredded its side panelling. Gusts hit 112mph late on Wednesday night at Great Dun Fell, 2,780ft above sea level in the Pennines – the highest recorded this week – while High Bradfield in South Yorkshire saw the top speed of 93mph yesterday.

However, the Met Office said it had been caught out by the severity of the wind across the Midlands and southern England, meaning severe weather warnings for much of the country were not in place. Only west coast areas and a strip in north east England and Scotland were issued yellow warnings. A spokesman said: “The squally nature of the winds meant that gusts were much stronger than we were expecting. “Given the impact the winds have caused, had we known, we would have put out a warning across the south.â€

http://www.telegraph...h-of-gusts.html

Well, the NW Atlantic storms threads was on the ball!

[Methuselah]

My opinion of the MetO is that they far outshine even the most vociferous of the so-called 'indepedents'? Ninety-nine percent of the ridiculous warnings come from the 'independents', and not from the Met...

Unfortunately, the independents' acolytes always jump on the ensuing anti-Met bandwaggon, in order to save face.

[La Bise]

They messed up, they admit to it, lesson learned hopefully or mabye they should just slag off other forecasters and point out how right they were about it being windy on top of Snowdon...

Edited January 6, 2012 by La Bise

[Insert Name Here]

Agreed. Our METO is among the best in the world. Their forecasting in the short, medium and long term is among the best in the world.

Their severe weather warning system is poor. The implementation of that poor system and the way it was applied in real time on the ground as events unfolded over the last few days was lamentable. (IMHO)

[cyclonic happiness]

My opinion of the MetO is that they far outshine even the most vociferous of the so-called 'indepedents'? Ninety-nine percent of the ridiculous warnings come from the 'independents', and not from the Met...

Unfortunately, the independents' acolytes always jump on the ensuing anti-Met bandwaggon, in order to save face.

I agree, generally the do a really good job and are ready to admit their mistakes and take action like with the long range forecasts.

But, the warnings system is at the minute 'buggered up' take yesterday (yes again ) no warnings for severe gales across large areas of the country and them my area in the evening had a yellow warning for ice that didn't happen either???

I'm sure that there are folk from the Meto that read through these threads and why not, it would be one of the best ways to gauge public opinion and ways to improve.

But, yesterday's yellow warning for ice in the Midlands, almost seemed like a bit of back peddling for the sake of it?

[Coast]

I think the MetO put their hands up to this weeks low or non existent warnings as in the article I posted above i.e.:

A spokesman said: “The squally nature of the winds meant that gusts were much stronger than we were expecting. “Given the impact the winds have caused, had we known, we would have put out a warning across the south.â€

I'm surprised they chose the phrase "Given the impact the winds have caused, had we known" as many enthusiasts here on NW were recognising the potential for some days and were calling it correctly at least 24 hours out.

But as I have said two or three times before , we don't have the safety and well-being of 62 million people laying firmly at our feet.

[Jimmyh]

I think the MetO put their hands up to this weeks low or non existent warnings as in the article I posted above i.e.:

I'm surprised they chose the phrase "Given the impact the winds have caused, had we known" as many enthusiasts here on NW were recognising the potential for some days and were calling it correctly at least 24 hours out.

But as I have said two or three times before , we don't have the safety and well-being of 62 million people laying firmly at our feet.

Coast i agree with most of your comments however. Red warnings should have been put out. There was no warning that stated trees could collapse or roof tiles come off.

Now as we all know for this to happen significant winds are needed and an red warning should have been out for the whole of the south east. When you wake in the morning to here the qe2 bridge is closed due to high winds, red warnings should have been issued

[La Bise]

The problem for the MetO is that their warnings are used by a lot of people and should they start being more gun-ho about issuing them, how long will it take till some people think a "Red warning" is just some "Health&Safety gone mad", ignore them and end up in a dire situation? As a specie, we do tend to become quickly immune to "Wolf" cries... You then also have the problem of businesses taking heed of alarmist warnings and then turning against them with accusations of ruining business. If they issue a Red warning for, say, Cumbria for the week-end and it turns out it's just a stiff breeze, you'll have a lot of people in the tourist industry very upset with them

It's a difficult call really and that's not seeking excuses on their behalf, they messed up and they know it.

[Coast]

You then also have the problem of businesses taking heed of alarmist warnings and then turning against them with accusations of ruining business. If they issue a Red warning for, say, Cumbria for the week-end and it turns out it's just a stiff breeze, you'll have a lot of people in the tourist industry very upset with them

So damned if they do, damned if they don't?!

I'll agree this week was quite a big 'miss', but how many times do they get it right and it's never reported or discussed?

[gottolovethisweather]

One thing that annoys me is their stubbornness or lack of foresight when their short-term forecasts aren't going to plan. In a changing/developing situation, the info should then be portrayed to the media forecasters so they can then update the nation.

Paul Sherman's idea of nationwide weather observers sounds good to me and I did think the MetO were once keen on implementing things such as that. I know the USA and Australia have bigger landmasses to cover, but the storm and tornado warnings system works for them.

Just a thought and I agree it seems the warnings clearly need altering, once again.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[La Bise]

As I mentionned on another thread Coast, I rely on them (and another forecaster called Mountain Weather Information Service) to ensure I don't end up crag fast in a storm or my tent being blown away down a fell with me inside by carefully checking their mountain specific forecasts and they generally are excellent although they've had some annoying fails too (occasional drizzle is NOT continuous rain for 5 hours...). That's why I rate them.

Anyhow, I hope I get my loyal servant badge from them if they read this

[Optimus Prime]

So some people moan that the Metoffice issue too many warnings for severe weather (often compared to 20 years ago) whilst others moan because they issue too few?

I like the idea of using common sense. More should try it.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Optimus Prime

[The PIT]

You've got to be very careful over warnings with the cry wolf syndrome. Warnings in the past have been over the top like red warnings for a dusting off snow and a few millimetres of rain which left people saying "They always say that and it never happens"

The problem with the last storm was the slow reaction and lack of updates. If you look at WOW there's a lot of amateur stations reporting which should give a good indicator of what's happening. So if they say a quiet day in the west with light winds and 70% of the stations start reporting gusts to 50 mph they should get an idea something is wrong.

I suspect in the future they may start using such information.