Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[A Winter's Tale]

Does anyone know what happened to the Scotland Map?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Today has been a rollercoaster from 00z to 12z, I cannot even begin to imagine what solution the 18z will deliver. Everything on the table. That Atlantic cut off low is worth a watch though, the only thing in the forseeable NWP to de-rail the zonal train !

As my gran used to say: 'What's for ye 'll no pass ye by'.

I find the model thread amusing with it's rollercoaster as no amount of model watching will dictate whether it will snow or not.

If you ask me, gut feeling says we'll see something nice at some point. The past few winters suggest we've had a general pattern change. This winter is certainly not bartlet and there's been snow on the hills more days than not, so..

As my grandad used to say: 'Aye'.

[edo]

I think it may well point to the pattern change to cold Many are expecting....when they are constantly flipping and flopping like a fish on the shore they are normally struggling to cope with the transition.....

I see Toronto weatherman calling there first serious cold spell of the winter at the end of next week...I have followed @adamstilescity a tv weatherman in Canada since being in Toronto this summer and his account is always getting interesting weather photos tweeted and he gives interesting updates..... His latest tweet is looking like getting a winter after all so must be some members of the model thread living over there

[lorenzo]

Hi Lorenzo, I noticed that but don't have a clue what could happen from there. Any thoughts?

Your guess is as good as mine Norrance !

i would like to think this cut-off low would feed a high that builds into Greenland, however as per all of this winter the Zonal Express continues to reset due to our resident PV. I think we can expect the models to flip a fair bit in the near time frame before settling into a solution.

My thoughts are that we are looking at what is a NH pattern change happening right in front of our eyes, however the minute detail of every run obscures that.

The AO +ve regime has a loading pattern of approx 60 days and I hope it's time is up having begun mid-November, I have faith in the MJO patterns GP presented after following these the last 2 winters and seeing the impact to colder solutions.

What I do not know yet is the influence of the GLAAM figures or when the 2nd wave of 10hpa warming in the Strat will break. There are different outcomes for this , I hope to see the Vortex completely dissolved rather than displaced with a chance to re-load in it's current location.

Overall increasing confidence from NOAA and the much fabled / favourited cold solution of a GH is now on the table..

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think it may well point to the pattern change to cold Many are expecting....when they are constantly flipping and flopping like a fish on the shore they are normally struggling to cope with the transition.....

I see Toronto weatherman calling there first serious cold spell of the winter at the end of next week...I have followed @adamstilescity a tv weatherman in Canada since being in Toronto this summer and his account is always getting interesting weather photos tweeted and he gives interesting updates..... His latest tweet is looking like getting a winter after all so must be some members of the model thread living over there

Certainly there are major changes across the northern hemisphere afoot, though it could all still go horribly wrong at various points along the way for us.

As for North America, it does look like a pretty fierce snowstorm heading their way http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/01/06/basis12/namk/pslv/12011218_0612.gif

Hugely impressive blocking then sets up in 10 days time - Buffalo, Detroit, Chicago look favoured for some major lake effect snowfall http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/01/06/basis06/namk/pslv/12011706_0606.gif

[edo]

Interesting LS that will be the blocking Adam is talking about....I love some of the lake effect snow events they have around the great lakes....watched a fascinating programme about the great lakes and the effect they have on the weather in the region

[lorenzo]

Does anyone know what happened to the Scotland Map?

I have not a clue ! Google rolled out an update today for their homepage and it seems to have deleted all the data from the map.. will need to start again with a more stealthier approach and more robust way of preserving the data.

Once I figure out what that actually is !

[Hairy Celt]

Almost warm out this evening. Got the stove going about 5 and been fairly lazy about keeping it stoked but the house is roasting!

Definitely a change in the weather, but will we get some true cold? The signs are good but before two years ago, they were just teasers. 850s go below -10 for a few days after next weekend according to the latest ******** but who knows?

I'll save that one for later.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well that was perhaps the scariest looking set of ensembles ever - a fragment of the PV is over us in at least a third of them http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120106/18/prmslFife.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120106/18/slp-240.png

Looks like we may have replaced stormy with catalysmicly stormy. Anyway, it'll all have changed by the morning - I hope *gulp* . In any event, I doubt we'll be seeing much in the way mild weather for a while.

Edited January 7, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[blitzen]

Morning folks. Was up back of 5 letting the dog out and had a peep at the 00zs. Well, if you have looked, you know how I felt! Up again at 8.30 and expected to see hysterical comments and folk greetin' in their wellies. Imagine my shock when I then read the first post by Nick Sussex re the strat warming temps being off the charts for later this month and the very positive comments by Chiono and GP on the Strat thread! Dare we hope that indeed there may be something superb in a few weeks time?

[BleakMidwinter]

Looks like we may have replaced stormy with catalysmicly stormy.

But... but.... we only have three windows left in the roof!

Fingers crossed the cataclysms stay away for now (unless they're snowy ones, of course...)

Mild and only a very light breeze here, sunshine and bright blue sky. All very calm and still and rather oddly lovely.

[lorenzo]

For anyone looking for data from the K5 Buoy... Houston we have a problem..

[William Houston]

yeh whats the problem lol lol

[A Winter's Tale]

I do love the news of a very decent warming up in the stratosphere over the pole. And there's the rest of January left for it to develop and for the models to start bearing it in mind. This should set up an interesting February or even March?

Right now, it's very sunny where I am and it's lovely to see that yellow orb in the sky again after such a miserable day yesterday! For the first two thirds of this month, it looks heard to see a spell of -5C uppers over the Country but I do assume that we will have a cold spell this month.

Although we are 7 days into January, I certainly do feel that for the first 20 days anyway, that December would ironically end up being a better month for cold and snow in terms of CET, snow and ice. The two great snowy spell last month was maginificent, I hoe for at least another one this month before February arrives.

[Cheggers]

Fairly blowy and showery Forres. Temp @ 6c and the showers are fair rattling through. Any update on last nights Bawmegeddon LS posted?

[Norrance]

Blue skieshere. 7.7C. Westerly breeze.

As a contrast with recent years for AWT.

7/1/11. Max -2.7C ice day. Light snow later made it the 18th snow falling day and the 45th snow lying day. [44th at 9AM].

7/1/10. Max -2.5C ice day. Snow showers made it the 19th with snow falling and the 22nd snow lying.

This year 3 falling, none lying unless you can count a bit of slush or a few individual flakes that could be seen one frosty morning. Enough to make me weep.

For the map my family home up in Aberfeldy has had 17 falling with 14 lying this Winter.

Looks like a mild week to come especially mid-week with perhaps some cold zonality following on later.

[Hairy Celt]

Cooler & gusty today with clear bits & some dashed sharp showers, what?

Been out in the woods locally and saw a badger and a hare. Don't see either that often, so this counts as a good day . Lets see if the outlook forecast makes it better...

Comes back... or even possibly or a slim chance of :blink: :ph34r:

Later... that old trick: keep the cold out in the lo-res part of the run...

Edited January 7, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[over_the_rainbow]

Just seen the latest GFS and ECM and it certainly looks like there is some cross-model agreement regarding a cold pattern from the 15th and some very pretty charts emerging - nearly textbook on ECM. As it's FI obvioulsy there is caution in the finer detail at this stage, but I just wondered what you better model watchers think this potential easterly could mean for us Scots?

[BleakMidwinter]

Easterlies are typically the sole source of decent snow for Edinburgh, so I'm all in favour of Easterlies! As far as I can make out, various land or sea formations in all the other directions prevent snow reaching us, but Easterlies can bring it in unimpeded.

[A Winter's Tale]

Just seen the latest GFS and ECM and it certainly looks like there is some cross-model agreement regarding a cold pattern from the 15th and some very pretty charts emerging - nearly textbook on ECM. As it's FI obvioulsy there is caution in the finer detail at this stage, but I just wondered what you better model watchers think this potential easterly could mean for us Scots?

I'm no expert either but from what I've read and seen, that some of those charts are showing high pressure over Scandinavia. Usually that means that we tend to be slightly drier because we're closer to the high pressure.

The charts show most of the darker blue colours and closer isobars further south which would bring chaos to the SE. I would imagine that these charts would show some snow showers for E Scotland and Perth Included, but perhaps not enough 'oomph' to push the showers further inland across the mountains or through the central belt. On the other hand, if the uppers are cold enough there could be a helluva lot of convection over a warm North Sea that could result in great snowfalls.

It has to be said that over the past few days the models have been improving but this "upgrade" was totally sudden and unexpectedly good! I would assume that from now on, the models will chop and change to whether there will be an easterly or not, the positioning of it, the timing of events and what particular models are in agreement. But we've got GP to clarify on the situation. I assume himself and RJS will be rather pleased with this evenings runs.

[over_the_rainbow]

Certainly makes for fun model watching and let's hope we all get something up our end!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Certainly makes for fun model watching and let's hope we all get something up our end!

Aye, was just in there the now and it's all quite positive for the moment.

I think we can satisfy ourselves that as we move though january we will see a pattern change; lots of support for it. What that ends up giving is unknown, but anything is better than repeats of bawbag after bawbag!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Fairly blowy and showery Forres. Temp @ 6c and the showers are fair rattling through. Any update on last nights Bawmegeddon LS posted?

Rest easy fellow house dwellers - bawmaggedon is off the table. Unless you mean snowbawmageddon....

Edited January 7, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[A Winter's Tale]

Can someone clarify the following:

1)Where we can find the models that are showing the easterly

2) At what time is the easterly present

3) What would it mean for Scotland

One particular chart that I saw showed Scotland under High Pressure with few isobars (all far apart). Do the isobars need to be closer for North Sea convection? I also read a post from kold weather that what the charts are showing for Scotland would be close call with that easterly. As there's very little Scots on the model thread I and many other members aren't sure about what it would mean for us? Still that particular easterly may never happen but atleast it's a start and hopefully throws up many other oppurtunties for the rest of our winter.

[NorthernRab]

Can someone clarify the following:

1)Where we can find the models that are showing the easterly

2) At what time is the easterly present

3) What would it mean for Scotland

One particular chart that I saw showed Scotland under High Pressure with few isobars (all far apart). Do the isobars need to be closer for North Sea convection? I also read a post from kold weather that what the charts are showing for Scotland would be close call with that easterly. As there's very little Scots on the model thread I and many other members aren't sure about what it would mean for us? Still that particular easterly may never happen but atleast it's a start and hopefully throws up many other oppurtunties for the rest of our winter.

It's still too early to say as the models constantly flip around at this time frame, but expect colder weather to have arrived or not to be too far away by around the 18th-20th of January. Furthermore, we are forecast to see a large SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) in approx 9-11 days time which can disrupt the polar votext and lead to colder weather anything from a week to four weeks after the event has taken place.

In summary, our best shot at cold weather is likely yet to come during the last third of January and the month of February, it's just not very clear how it will pan out at all, it could be a lot more northerly than easterly in nature than is being suggested at the moment, but like I said we'll need some cross-model agreement.

Hope that has sufficiently muddied the (hopefully soon to be frozen solid) waters