Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[Benvironment]

Heavens. The ensembles for average 2m temp in Fife have one knocking down below -15C by month-end! I know it's bonkers but it's nice to see things like that cropping up finally.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-8-1-300.png?18

Negative zonality

[lorenzo]

http://176.31.229.22...-8-1-300.png?18

Negative zonality

Frame that one please, that control run put us in the freezer!

There are colder solutions still within the Ensembles.

Op close enough to the control not to be an outlier, time will tell, from the above spread heavily increases from mid-day on 14th.

FI for the developments at around 72-96hrs.

So all the usual warnings apply.

Best run of the Winter by miles.

[Hairy Celt]

Don't see that much spread in the ensembles that often, chaos after the 16th.

Balmy 7C just now - I'm sure I heard frost forecast on the radio for tonight?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Frame that one please, that control run put us in the freezer!

There are colder solutions still within the Ensembles.

Op close enough to the control not to be an outlier, time will tell, from the above spread heavily increases from mid-day on 14th.

FI for the developments at around 72-96hrs.

So all the usual warnings apply.

Best run of the Winter by miles.

I feel the need to counterbalance the beasterly ramping with something less than wintry that same run http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-1-228.png?18

But then I looked at the uppers http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-0-228.png?18

Typical - seems that while a few days ago we couldn't buy a cold run now we can't find a mild one!

A few reasons to be sceptical -

)Anyway, my penultimate point tonight - the Irish, highlanders and west coasties always, it seems to me, come out best on this forum because they have to put up with the rest of us constantly harping on about how incredible a chart that has a very slight easterly flow into Kent is when that last chart with the massive storm had colder uppers. There is a key difference between that and what MIGHT be on the charts tonight - almost all of these solutions are driven by the jet being forced south and hence the opportunity for frontal systems and troughs would be much greater than usual. It also means that if things go badly wrong and we end up just on the wrong side of these lows then the Highlands would still end up with a pasting - win win!

Finally, a few reasons to be sceptical -

1) the ridging on the 18Z is almost not enough to get us there

2) it's only the pub run

3) the ECM isn't on board

4)the delorean's only doing 81 mph

[BleakMidwinter]

Contrast to last week..... here is my Niece standing by the garden tree that fell the "right way" during the storm (she is 5'6")

STREWTH...

[blitzen]

As expected, the overnight GFS has changed. The 06z looks a bit weird to me as it doesn't even concur with the Met forecast of a chilly weekend. I would certainly think the Met would be right at this range? Unless I'm reading things wrong but the 850s seem higher on the 06z than those that the Meto are predicting?

Edited January 10, 2012 by Blitzen

[Argyllcraig]

As expected, the overnight GFS has changed. The 06z looks a bit weird to me as it doesn't even concur with the Met forecast of a chilly weekend. I would certainly think the Met would be right at this range? Unless I'm reading things wrong but the 850s seem higher on the 06z than those that the Meto are predicting?

The 06z has been the coldest run for this weekend i think.

From the 850s we are looking at munro level temps of about -3 to -6c depending on whether your east or west and on local conditions plus we have high pressure nudging in so we could see colder nights still.

Most positive thing from the 06z run is it continues to back up the pattern change in about 5-7 days time which is closer to reliable time frame. All the ensemble members have moved from the 6c to -6c band and now in the long run they all fall sub zero to -12c which is a welcome trend.

[Cheggers]

Grey and damp here. Currerntly 8C but the breeze making it feel a lot colder. Looking forward to some frosty nights from the weekend.

[edo]

8.2 here but feeling far chillier in a wind blowing from the north at times.......models flipping slightly but still not the worst charts and I see matts status re the 32 is positive so look fwd to a longer post from him later if he has not already done so....off to check ....

PS Its oh so quiet in here (copyright mad bird bjork)

[blitzen]

The 06z has been the coldest run for this weekend i think.

Most positive thing from the 06z run is it continues to back up the pattern change in about 5-7 days time which is closer to reliable time frame. All the ensemble members have moved from the 6c to -6c band and now in the long run they all fall sub zero to -12c which is a welcome trend.

Well mis- read by me then! :lol:

[snowy owl]

Just waiting on a chance for my internet to last long enough to view the charts this afternoon - hoping someone can give me a quick rundown as i doubt i'll keep my connection long enough to view much!!

Lets hope the signals are strong for some cold nd some snow.

[Poots]

It's 7c here, damp, dull and blah. Looking forward to some frost as well.

[Hairy Celt]

Got 10C today, little wind but rather cloudy. Betty Swallocks with all my winter layers on. Waiting for the next lot of cold is worse than watching paint dry - at least you know the paint will dry so you get there in the end - with this, we may not get anything apart from endless mildageddon.

Edit... at least this weekend looks like settled & cooler so could be a hill day there if the tax return's done. Please God.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Northern Strath]

Good grief what a non-weather day today, if I reflect on it too much I may send myself to sleep, I hope nobody does so reading this. 6.7C

[Norrance]

This is what we want [or is it?]. How did they clear that?

Isgl in Western Austria. 5.5 mtrs snow after virtually none in December. Taken from the World weather section posted by Weather Ship.

[blitzen]

I am indeed very curious to see if the models continue with their see-saw runs. Yesterday good, today not so good, that should make tomorrow's runs good again? How's that for a scientific analysis! Something is definitely not sitting right with all of this. Joe B seems very confident of approaching NH cold within the next two weeks, citing-AO/-NAO, rising Arctic pressure, and strat warming to have a brutal effect shortly. Dunno if he's right, but I will certainly clutch that straw!

https://twitter.com

!/

Edited January 10, 2012 by Blitzen

[spindrift1980]

MWIS (mountain) forecast seeming to be going with about 70% chance of (cool?) zonality and 30% chance of settled HP in a week or so's time:

"Most likely turning increasingly wet and windy from Tuesday with marked

freeze/thaw cycles, but 30% chance of high pressure and fine, cold weather becoming established."

It does note the greater than usual uncertainty at the moment though, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.

[LomondSnowstorm]

MWIS (mountain) forecast seeming to be going with about 70% chance of (cool?) zonality and 30% chance of settled HP in a week or so's time:

"Most likely turning increasingly wet and windy from Tuesday with marked

freeze/thaw cycles, but 30% chance of high pressure and fine, cold weather becoming established."

It does note the greater than usual uncertainty at the moment though, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Probably right, even if we were to end up with an easterly of sorts it would most likely come from either heights over Svalbard being intact enough to force the jet to undercut (would be initially wet and windy before turning to snow as undercutting occured though) or from another attempt at ridging, which would involve a low pressure system passing through and a ridge to build behind it.

I am indeed very curious to see if the models continue with their see-saw runs. Yesterday good, today not so good, that should make tomorrow's runs good again? How's that for a scientific analysis! Something is definitely not sitting right with all of this. Joe B seems very confident of approaching NH cold within the next two weeks, citing-AO/-NAO, rising Arctic pressure, and strat warming to have a brutal effect shortly. Dunno if he's right, but I will certainly clutch that straw!

The negative AO is inevitable now, the negative NAO less so because of the positioning of the PV. Hopefully the warming progged at the stratosphere can propagate enough to help at least shift the PV to a more favourable position and help us out. Incidentally, he could well be right about NH cold and even continental European cold and we could still end up relatively mild.

[lorenzo]

JB likes a ramp !

Here are the AO and NAO Plots - cmc and gefs first for AO, included cmc / naefs for comparison.

2 random members sink it to below -5 on the GEFS ( and don't come back again !)

12z NAO - FI counting even further down from 96 - 84 - 72..

On a knife edge this change, great to be right there with it..

[Cheggers]

This is what we want [or is it?]. How did they clear that?

Isgl in Western Austria. 5.5 mtrs snow after virtually none in December. Taken from the World weather section posted by Weather Ship.

You never know, that could be the A9 soon, can't get any worse than it already is! :ph34r:

Edited January 10, 2012 by Cheggers

[edo]

Incredible snow amounts in Alaska http://t.co/0s3A4PRp also more stories below about snow suffering towns if u surf around

Edited January 10, 2012 by edodfc

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16495890

Mon dieu.

Our time will come... :winky:

Incredible snow amounts in Alaska http://t.co/0s3A4PRp also read the story below about anchorage ironically not having enough snow shovels

Just beat me to it then :lol:

Incredible snow.

[edo]

Lol yes whilst waiting for the 18z to fully roll out surf for snow elsewhere.....standard procedure

[Cheggers]

Lol yes whilst waiting for the 18z to fully roll out surf for snow elsewhere.....standard procedure

Aye, Watching "from freezer to furness" on Eden and the chap in Siberia was maoning as it was a cold year last.... a month of -57c to -61c. School only cancelled if it drops below -52c